Favourites System

[ecjst1]

Here is an idea that I have been testing for the last week.

Using the stats on the Racing Post website I have been checking the performance of favourites at the tracks which are holding race meetings on the particular day. For example it will give the percentage of favourites which win at the track in the different kinds of races. Chases, Hurdles, Handicap Chases, Handicap Hurdles & National Hunt Flat races. It also gives the level stake profit or loss that you would have made/ lost if you were backing all favourites at £1.00 per bet.

I am only interested in the type of race which has made a level stake profit. I then back the favourite in that particular race at a level stake 1 point win bet.

In the eight days of testing this system it has made a profit of 16 points!
Hope that you can make sense of the above!!! Will be interested to see what everyone else thinks.

[wistda]

Hi ecjst1,

This is very similar to the logic behind my 40+ and new ROI30 systems. Except that I've tried to include certain criteria in the hope of better returns overall, and a steady strike rate. From what you've outlined above it may be that I have too rigid a criteria in. The 40+ system has been up and down like a yoyo this past month, with only a small overall profit. The ROI30 seems to hold more potential, but finds relatively few selections. Its taken about 40 days to give 20 odd selections, but a 40% return is OK.

The main stumbling block I've encountered is that while the strike rate has been good for both sets, the returns have been hampered by odds on bets, and joint favourites. Yesterday for example, 3 winners out of 7, but at odds of 5/6, 8/11 and 7/2 joint favourite with 2 others, resulting in just an effective 1/2 return.

The 40+ performed significantly better in August, so it may just be a seasonal downturn.

It's very interesting to see a different perspective though, and a very nice simple one at that, so I shall follow your idea with interest.

Best of luck with it.

[Littlewesty]

I also use that information in the system that I have been developing but I also include trainer and jockey stats and form guide too.

[Win2Win]

The problem with the RP stats is that some are false, as they do not point out if any have a fluke result in. IE. 20/1 winner, etc

It's best to do all race types V tracks using RSB, or Raceform for a more accurate reading.

[wistda]

The problem with the RP stats is that some are false, as they do not point out if any have a fluke result in. IE. 20/1 winner, etc

Surely this wouldn't apply, as it's only favourites that make up the stats concerned. There won't be any going off at those sort of odds - sure, the occasional 5/1, but that can be repeated.

[wistda]

Hi ecjst1,

I'd be interested to know if you've been doing these the past couple of days, over this weekend, and especially what joy you've had. With the criteria for the 40+ system it's been pretty disastrous of late. Have yours done any better?

[ecjst1]

Hi wistda.

Yes have been monitoring the results of the system and here they are for fri, sat & sun.

Fri: 9 bets. 2 losses. Winners: 6/5, 5/6, 10/3, 8/11, 1/4, 5/2 & 5/1: +11.83 points.

Sat: 11 bets. 7 losses. Winners: 13/8, 4/7, 9/4, 5/4: -1.30 points.

Sun: 7 bets. 4 losses. Winners: 6/4, 4/9, 7/2: +1.44 points.

This system has performed quite well since I first started, but obviously it's still early days. All prices are S.P. as I just bet on the unamed favourite in the qualifying races.

For reference here are the qualifying races for tomorrow:

Warwick: 2.20
Warwick: 2.50
Plumpton: 4.00

Hopefully this information is of use to you.

[wistda]

Very useful indeed - many thanks. Certainly over the past few days you're way ahead of the 40+ sys. I don't know why but it has just nosedived recently. I like your idea - very simple, very straightforward & can find the qualifyers in a few minutes each day.

Would I be right in thinking you don't do the Irish races?

I for one shall certainly be following your system, so the best of luck with it.

[ecjst1]

No, I haven't looked at the possibility of including Irish racing yet. Will certainly check out the statistics and see what sort of potential that offers. Will keep you posted.

[GLENCROFT]

Update for October on my Daily Express favourites 'system'.

I did miss a few days in October as on holiday

All results for £10 win stake

30 bets , 16 winnners profit = £70.20

Overall since I started on July 30

80 bets , 47 winners profit = £262.84

Todays top rated fave is 3.00 @ Plumpton approx 5/2 at moment

[Littlewesty]

Do you use the 5 year average for your picks or do you check each season individually ?

[ryalux]

Glencroft are your Express rules on here?

Many thanks,
ryalux

[GLENCROFT]

Yes - under WISTDA's posting title "40+ system"

[ryalux]

Glencroft,
Thanks i've ordered the Express for tomorrow to see if i can work it out.

cheers

[ecjst1]

Here is an update for the results of the Favourites System:

October: +14.99 points

November: +8.55 points

December: +24.73 (so far)

Busy day tomorrow with 23 races to bet on!

Will keep you posted.

[podtog]

Hello ecjst 1, what is your strike rate over this period and also longest losing/winning run. Im asking because it seems like you have a pretty good system there and wondering if the staking system i use for the daily mail system would suit your system. Ive been looking at using different selections and am quite confident i could produce more profits using my own selections or a combination of different sources.

[ecjst1]

Hi potdog,

Over this period of time there have been 360 bets with 162 winners. This gives me a strike rate of 45%.
The longest winning run is: 6.
The longest losing run I have had is: 8.
The results I posted were all to level stakes.

I hope that this helps.