Early Betting Prices

[Elbarto]

Ok this is just a quick question. Im using the "back the favourite to win a fixed amount and back em till he wins" system, and its been working. However started working off a bank of 200 today, got a favourite winner in the first at Newton Abbott, which was grand, then had a major sting with none of the 4 short priced faves winning the first 2 races at both Ayr and Bath. End result means im left with a paltry 5.65 in my account, so im gonna give it a cash injection for tomorrow.

Anyways, my question is to avoid this happening AGAIN, I want to be able to have a look at what the early prices are going to be roughly about for the faves so at least if there are short priced faves in a few races i can ditch all but one of them and thus avoid going nearly bankrupt after 4 races.
I dont have a Betfair account, and would like somewhere that is nice and simple to access to get a rough guide. Any suggestions???? Is the racing post paper any good and im definitely going to quash any rumours that im a bit of a newb by admitting it and asking is the Racing Post a daily or weekly paper???

[tophatter]

Racing post is a great paper. The website aint bad either.

[tophatter]

Oh and it is a daily

[tophatter]

You could always go to the oddschecker website too

[Elbarto]

Thank you,
Thank you,
and Thank you.

[Win2Win]

Your then turning a system into a method which always ends in failure, but then again as you've noticed with the above system, that always ends in failure as well. Your just throwing money down the well with no way of getting it back, your bank will bust again at some point. Losing runs on short priced odds-on runners can reach 8+

Many on here have tried this, and all have ended in disaster for everyone.

Oh joy if pro-gambling was that simple :)

Also with only a £200 bank, I hope your BB was no higher than 50p. Even that is high risk.

[Elbarto]

Your then turning a system into a method which always ends in failure, but then again as you've noticed with the above system, that always ends in failure as well. Your just throwing money down the well with no way of getting it back, your bank will bust again at some point. Losing runs on short priced odds-on runners can reach 8+

Many on here have tried this, and all have ended in disaster for everyone.

Oh joy if pro-gambling was that simple :)

Also with only a £200 bank, I hope your BB was no higher than 50p. Even that is high risk.

Well im hoping that it wont bust again, so to try and avoid that happening im going, if there are two race meetings on roughly about the same time and both have quite short priced favourites running in the first few races im only gonna bet on one of those meetings, so as to prevent losing heavily quickly and then not having the money to back the winners.

It was mainly down to the Bath meeting that i got screwed, cause i lost 20 on the first 50 on the second 40 on the third race, then of course the favourite obliged in the 4th race and i had no money left to bet with. So i have two choices, reduce the amount i wish to win in these types of races or ignore em all bar one.

[sportingprofit]

idiot

[Elbarto]

idiot

Care to elaborate

[tophatter]

No need for That Sporting Profit. If you think Elbarto is on the road to ruin with that way of betting (as sadly I have to say I do) at least have the courtesy to say so and not just brand him an idiot. We can have heated debates but at least they get idea thrashed out and and are constructive but a one word reply which is just an insult is no use to no one. He aint done nothing to you so why be so narky. You would not go up to someone in person in the bookies and say that (and they are 99% idiots in there) so don't do it on here.

[John]

Is there a need for it Tom? Really? REALLY?

[Elbarto]

Thanks for the support lads, in the long run the system will probably be a no hoper, made 60 quid today from 6 races though, so im happy for the moment.
Ill take my chances at this system till the middle of September if it lasts that long. If it bombs out sporting can call me an idiot till the cows come home, if it works ill put up the cash for a prize to the value of £1000, which the boys here can raffle off to find a winner, ill also put up the prize money for 4 runner up prizes for anything to the tune of £500

[bigcumba]

idiot

Nothing like a bit of constructive criticism eh SP? Elbarto asked for advice, and yours was very useful I'm sure.... You've been a member her long enough to know that sort of thing isn't welcome and is totally unnecessary....

[vegyjones]

Idiot???????

I haven't even been on this thread :D

Although we do not encourage chasing systems / methods,
you seem determined to go ahead.

In which case, I wish you good lucj and the only advice I would offer
is that you STOP when you reach your target! :wink

[Win2Win]

"LUCJ" - Tribal dance done in the South of England that involves frogs legs, 13 candles, and dancing naked in the garden while singing the "Greatest Hits of Morris Dancing"

[susanwells]

Quite apart from the rudeness - which I`m sure was only a quick slip of the keys and is now regretted- idiots do the lottery, play the slots, go onto the roulette tables, shell out for scratch cards,bet that it will snow on xmas day, de da de da de da.. AND OCCASIONALLY THEY WIN.
Short term you may well win on this system.. I`ve seen worse. But as everyone here goes on about LONG TERM PROFITS my advice is, make a short term profit, and quite while you`re ahead.
then buy a lottery ticket.

[icebreaker]

Ill take my chances at this system till the middle of September if it lasts that long.

Elbarto, it won't (....... last that long). You'll be busted much, much sooner. I strongly advise you to abandon this method straight away. It's suicidal.

Some time ago BigCumba posta up the liabilities one would face ater a string of nine or ten losing favs (which is more common than you would think). The figure was telephone-number size. Would you have you the bottle to bet £5,000 on a 2/1 favourite to recoup losses and a £1 winning bet after a losing run? Would any Bookie take your bet? About four months ago there was a string of 46 consecutive losing favourites!

Many, many years ago I thought about doing this system also ............. guess that makes me an idiot as well.

[flaming norah]

Ok, feel free to laugh me off this thread seeing as i'm a beginner with no real experience in gambling, but i'm going to say this anyway.

I came here a few months ago with a kamikazie double up staking plan like the one you're considering only with slightly smaller stakes and a bit more caution.

I also was going to use it in conjunction with backing the favourites. Now i've changed my mind and i'm hoping you will too. Don't get me wrong, there's nothing wrong with a SENSIBLE staking plan, in fact i'm a big fan of them, but yours (and the one i was originally toying with) starts too high, and gets even higher far too quickly. It has no cut off point except the one where your accounts empty.

Then there's the favourites. Which favourites are you using, the early morning ones or the right before the off ones? Which ones are best to use? I've asked this question elsewhere and have had no definate answer cause there isn't one. Thats not to say that i'm now against the idea of fav betting cause there are days when it works well with a sensible staking plan and then there are days like the one you just had. If you're going to proceed with this you need rules and you need caution.........lots of caution and without a doubt you need much smaller stakes that step up sensibly.

I opened a bet fair account about 6 weeks ago with 50 quid. My smallest bet was 20p my largest was £6 (which was frightening to me daft as it sounds). It now stands at 164.99, this is down from £197 at the begining of the week thanks to a fairly rough week with the favs and a stupid mistake by myself.

It's not a lot of money compared to what some people are playing with on here, but i'm only learning and still make silly mistakes. I have a few rules that have stood me in good stead so far and have broken them on occasions due to panic and lack of discipline and have paid the price.

I start at 20p and increase each bet in small amounts, taking into account the odds of the horse I want to back. £6 is my top bet, if it loses i go back to square one and write off the loss, some might think thats daft but better to lose that amount than keep going and lose the lot. If i get to £6 twice in one day with no result i stop for the day. There's always tomorrow and the day after. If the odds are crap on the fav I either leave that race alone or go for the next best.

Providing my betting bank doesn't go bust (and I accept it could happen), my bet amounts will stay the same until I get to about £500 then there will be a review. I'll either up the starting bet a few pence or increase the max bet of £6 a bit higher, not sure will wait and see how it goes.

I usually steer well clear of weekends but i'm bored today so am considering playing to a max of £5 of my betting bank, if i get lucky i'll stay on if not, thats it til tuesday.

I'm sorry you were called an idiot, I was as good as called the same thing on here by someone who doesn't come here anymore (begins with e...end in boi, ring any bells :D ). You're not an idiot, you just need to have a bit of a rethink and most importantly listen to what the others here have to say, most of whats been said to me here advice-wise has been invaluable to my education and has without doubt saved me a few quid as well.

Best of luck with whatever you decide to do, I love a good success story and I hope thats what yours is.

PS if anyone has any extra advice reguarding what i'm doing please feel free it's always appreciated :wink

[Elbarto]

Well when I started this post I didnt think it would get as much action as this.
I do have some rules which I stick with rigidly.
Firstly I dont bet on weekends as there is greater interest from the public on weekends and a better chance of there being something illegal going on.

Secondly I have decided that if there are a number of race meetings with short priced faves starting around the same time, im only going to concentrate on one of those meetings, as I pointed out earlier cause it bust me the day before yesterday, whereas if i just took one of the meetings i would have made a profit.

Thirdly, ive decided to reduce the percentage of my bank that i want to win from 10% to 5% so as that reduces the losses i could suffer even more.

Fourthly, I do look at every single race as it comes, i look at the form of the favourite horses and decide whether its worth it. Nick Millards tip of not betting on a re-appearing 3 year old horse(i think its a 3 yr old) that did well first time round and has odds shorter than 2/1, comes in very handy esepecially if you look at Hill of Howths run yesterday in the 4:00 at Wolves.

Also if the money I have to put on is an amount that is likely to give me a heart attack if the horse loses, i dont back it, unless the horse is a damn near certainty, such as Moscow Flyer.

Someone asked earlier if i take the early morning prices or just before the off, well i take just before the off, as it normally gives a more certain picture on how people feel and are betting. I will admit I bottled it yesterday in the 3:50 at Catterick, looked at the form and previous runs of the main favourites, and saw that Trojan Flight should have been favourite ahead of Wyatt Earp, so with the two joint favourites at the time i was about to put my bet on Wyatt Earp went clear fave and i bottled it and went for him ahead of Trojan Flight, a mistake which i wont be making again any time soon.

As i said earlier if the system is a success and it does last till september, as a way of showing my gratitude for the advice and help ive gotton from all and sundry here in my short time being a member i will put up the money for prizes

[tophatter]

Elbarto mate, any money you make you keep. We welcome debate and contributions from all posters that is only reward the members of this forum look for. Good luck and keep posting!

[Profit Seeker]

My little donation to this thread is probably as short and sharp as Sporting's....but perhaps less offensive.
BEEN THERE, DONE IT, SCRAPPED IT :)