Systems in general

[clotty]

I read an article this morning from someone saying systems aren't reliable structures that will show profit year after year. I personally, thought this was tosh. I would say I use any hard and fast systems, but I go by guidelines and I seem to do fine. I know some people here have systems going, so they will probably agree with my opinion on the article.

Anyway, the article got me thinking and I began to wonder about the components of a system more specifically about the yield of a system and how people go about creating systems.

Knowing the knowledgable bunch you are here, I thought I'd ask what type of yields you've come across with systems. Paper testing a system for about a month, based purely on a system, which involves no skill on my part to pick winners for races, I've come up with a yield which seems to be stablizing at about 40% . I've only been doing it for few weeks, as I say and haven't put any money on, yet, but do you think such a high yield is maintainable. Have you seen higher?

I'm also interested in how you go about making a system for horse racing, yourself. If you'd be willing to share I think myself, and lots of other people who come across this, would benefit from seeing some of the best systems you've managed to come up with and the success it's brought so far. Obviously, if you've uncovered 'the perfect system' and it's copyrighted by someone, I can't expect you to reveal, but whatever you can offer will be appreaciated.

Clotty.

[roma]

Hmm .. no replies as yet Clotty

I suspect they don't want us to know it's all done with magic pins, granny's birthday and what day the full moon falls this month ...
:wink

[Win2Win]

I'm stuck on 33k dial up at the moment so way behind in my work. Give the Mods a poke!

[TheOldhamWhisper]

A system can be something as simple as:

Fav in non-handicap
Has won last 2 races
Only CD winner in field

but something like this would almost inevitably lose money over a long term. Combinations of several rules can significantly improve the chances of finding a winning combination, but the more complicated it is, the fewer selections (and often not enough to gather 'test data').

There is a very good tool called the Race System Builder (RSB) but it is VERY expensive. There is a free trial available (but it uses only 2 years data) for people to have a play with but if you want serious results, you will have to pay for it. There may be other products available but I haven't found one anywhere near as good as RSB.

When you say 'yield', do you mean Strike Rate or Return on Investment? Either would be acceptable for a working system (but the Strike Rate would need odds against selections in the main). Is it maintainable? Only time will tell but if you find one that makes money (after thorough testing) make certain that you stick exactly to the rules - deviating from them will surely doom it to failure!

[pilky201]

Try joining and being a paid up member and with that you'll see QUALITY info from Keith plus all the regular forum players offering their systems, methods and advice. I'm a total basic learner but with A+ bets alone i'm in profit

[wb]

I run a few systems that I came up with myself. To be honest, most fail, but the one that has made me the most money has a 5 variables taken into consideration.(the selections are also used in my £1k challenge thread)

1. The RP rating
2. Last 4 outings
3. The Jockey record at that particular track
4. The jockey overall record
5. The trainer record at that particular track

It is a lay system by the way. It is a bit hard to explain, but basically, using different calculations, I crunch all the stats for the above together in a spreadsheet, and it gives me a numerical value of each horses chance of winning. The top 3 horses are considered to risky to lay, but anything else under 10.5 gets laid. I also pick and choose what races to do them in (For example, I wont do an amateur jockey race, as the jockey stats will not be reliable enough) This particular system has been in paper profit for the best part of a year, and I went 'live' with it using real €€€ around october. It used to take me ages and ages to work out the maths on paper, but thanks to mathare and others, I learned how to do it all on a spreadsheet, so it takes about 10-15 mins. for each race.

[clotty]

When you say 'yield', do you mean Strike Rate or Return on Investment?

Sorry, maybe I'm using the term incorrectly, but when I put yield I meant the profit in relation to the ammount staked. It's a lot more informative that just putting down your profit, in my opinion. For example, say I made 5 £10 bets and won a total of £30, my yield would therefore be 80%. However, with a starting bank of £1000, my profit would only be 3%. I hope I've explained it well enough

Thanks for all those answers, some of those points have been interesting.

It seems as though you want your filters to logical, but not too restricting either, as you obviously want enough horses to bet often. Perhaps, I will join as a member and see what systems are going on in the members only section.

[tophatter]

I only bet seriously now with systems. Method bets are just for fuin

[mathare]

For example, say I made 5 £10 bets and won a total of £30, my yield would therefore be 80%. However, with a starting bank of £1000, my profit would only be 3%. I hope I've explained it well enough

Your starting bank is irrelevant here. And your yield would be 60% in your first example.

What you are calling yield is also called profit on investment or return on investment

[Win2Win]

ROI% is much easier to spell :)

[clotty]

Your starting bank is irrelevant here. And your yield would be 60% in your first example.

What you are calling yield is also called profit on investment or return on investment

Your 100% right, it should be 60%, don't know what I was thinking .

Will refer to it as ROI% from now