The Aussies start their campaign to regain the Ashes at Brisbane for the fourth time. They won convincingly back in 1954 but lost in 1978 and 1986. Does that mean we're on for another England win? I doubt it, although a draw is not beyond the realm of possibility. Brisbane isn't that good a ground for the Aussies though historically, at least not for the first test of a series.
But the win market isn't the place to go value hunting really. Of the last ten tests here the away side has yet to win with 7 home victories and 3 draws in that time. Does the toss matter? Not really, but the Aussies have won the last 3 tests here when they have batted second.
Expect the Aussies to take a big lead into the halfway stage of this game, most likely thanks to a strongly wagging tail. Over the last 10 tests here the home side have only been behind once (by 86 runs to India in 2003). Their average 1st innings lead is 153 runs, which makes the spread of 65-85 a good buy in my opinion. The 1/2 on Aus having a 1st innings lead with the high street layers is a decent option too.
Next we look at the match ton-ups (the sum of runs over 100 scored by any individual player). This makes up around 66 for the last 10 Brisbane tests. The line set by the spread bettors is 87-94 but I don't think a sell is in order here - too risky.
But the volcano market looks like a good option. Remember Australia are unbeaten in their last 10 games here. The volcano market is looking at the margin of the Australian victory measured in runs. Hang on, if the Australians bat second they could win by a number of wickets so what happens then? Then the market is settled on the difference in the number of runs, which will be 6 or less. But on the 3 occasions they have batted 2nd here in the last 10 tests they have winning by an innings and something twice and 10 wickets once so only that last time did the market make up low (1). In fact the average make up of this market is 165.7 so a buy at 50 looks an absolute steal to me.
What of the individual players? I have managed to lay my hands on some interesting stats comparing the form of players now with form of players in the past and looking at the scores of those past players in their next innings to try and gauge what we can expect this time round from this bunch. Interesting stuff...
On one hand KP is in for a disaster. His figures very closely emulate those of one Geoffrey Boycott prior to the Melbourne test in 1966. Boycott got 17 & 1 that match. Uh-oh! But if you look longer and harder at the numbers you see history reckons KP could easily be on for a decent knock with past batsmen in similar form knocking an average of 68.12 in their next innings.
Without going into too much detail, Hayden should be steady but nothing more (scoring 30-40 in his 1st innings); Ponting could well rack up a score worth knowing about and should make a 50+; Langer will have a stinker and go for under 30, maybe even under 25; Damien Martyn stands a good chance of a 50; Hussey bats too far down the order for me but should be solid enough and post good average scores this time round; Michael Clarke is doomed and will give his wicket away cheaply (under 25) while Adam Gilchrist should be on for about 30-odd in his first innings but I don't think many more is likely.
And the English lads - a solid 40-50 from Strauss; Cook should post a big total but I can't seem him making a big ton; Bell with either get single figures or near triple figures - it's very hard to tell; Collingwood ought to be good for around 50ish; KP we've done above; Freddie - dunno, maybe only a 30-odd from the skipper; Jones may well outscore his captain but will do really well to get to 50.
It's just a shame that the spread firms don't have individual player first innings runs, only match runs. I now need to make some educated guesses about the second half of this match and go from there. By and large the markets are leave alone lines for me. Langer looks too long at 78-85 as does Clarke at 63-70 and Martyn looks too short at 70-77. For the England batsmen the lines are about right to my mind. Buying Collingwood at 73 and Geraint Jones at 46 are the only two that interest me really.
I have similar figures for the bowlers, comparing them to past bowlers in similar veins of form but the spread markets aren't really there to support the analysis I'm afraid. Based on the averages Brett Lee is good for 3.1 wickets; McGrath for 3.8 and Warne will grab 4.4 wickets. And yes I know fractions of wickets are impossible. But it does tell us that the bowling indices (10 for a wicket plus 25 for a 5-wicket haul) are about right for those three. Harmison ought to be worth 4.1 wickets on average with Hoggy backing him up for 2.4, Freddie claiming 4.6 scalps and the Mont-ster weighing win with 3.4, albeit late in the match as that's when he will be most effective. Again the indices are pretty much spot on with the possible exception of Flintoff at 35-40 where a small buy may be in order but I think it's a big ask for him in this game.
Should Freddie come out firing on all cylinders (and why shouldn't he, this is the ashes) he looks a decent shout for man of the match at 12/1. He won it twice in 2005 and if he gets the bat and ball going he looks like he could be in with a shout here too.
Main bets
BUY Aus/Eng 1st innings supremacy @ 85 Made up at 445 (+360)
BUY Volcano Aus/Eng @ 50 Made up at 277 (+227)
Side bets
SELL Langer match runs @ 78 Made up at 182 (-104)
SELL Clarke match runs @ 63 Made up at 56 (+7)
BUY Martyn match runs @ 77 Made up at 29 (-48)
BUY Collingwood match runs @ 73 Made up at 101 (+28)
BUY G Jones match runs @ 46 Made up at 52 (+6)
Andrew Flintoff man of the match @ 12/1 LOST
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Originally Posted by Mattw07
