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Thread: wb versus the handicapper

  1. #1
    wb's Avatar
    wb is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

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    wb versus the handicapper

    This has been going well at home, so I’m going to post the trial here for a while to keep me disciplined.

    I will be attempting to spot horses who, in my opinion, have been treated too leniently in the weight - and have a better chance of winning than the handicapper seems to think.

    Rules:

    I will post the selections before the days racing - probably the night before.

    Prices:
    I have found that the best value for some of these selections is usually just before the off, so prices will not be updated until the end of the day. (I will be using auto-betfair to place the bets 5 minutes before the off, and the prices I get matched at will be used)

    Staking:
    Stakes will initially be 3% of the bank adjusted daily. This may change depending on the strike rate. [EDIT: Staking changed to 2% from post 236]

    [EDIT NO 2: Stakes were changed to 1% of the bank from post 255]

    Starting bank is £1000

    Tada gan iarracht


  2. #2
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    Starting Bank: £1000

    12.50 Hunt - Ikemba
    2.50 Hunt - Sybarite Chief

    Todays Stakes: £30

    Tada gan iarracht


  3. #3
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    12.50 Hunt - Ikemba 2nd Price matched: 5.3
    2.50 Hunt - Sybarite Chief 9th Price matched: 5.5



    Stats.
    No. Bets: 2
    Winners: 0
    Strike Rate: 0.00%
    Starting Bank: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time low: £940.00

    Current Bank: £940.00

    Next Stake: £28.20

    Tada gan iarracht


  4. #4
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    Today's Bets (Saturday) Stakes: £28.20


    2.35 Ling - Barry Island
    2.55 Punch - Atlantic Rhapsody

    3.30 War - L'Aventure

    2.20 Weth - Heltornic
    2.50 Weth - William Bonney
    3.20 Weth - Posh Stick

    Tada gan iarracht


  5. #5
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    No Winners. Heltornic was a NR

    Stats.

    No. Bets: 7
    Winners: 0
    Strike Rate: 0.00%
    Starting Bank: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time low: £940.00

    Current Bank: £855.40

    Next Stake: £25.66

    Tada gan iarracht


  6. #6
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    3.30 Plum - Ebony Jack

    Stake: £25.66

    Tada gan iarracht


  7. #7
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    Loses.



    I may have a couple more later, but I just want to get the 2:00 up:


    2:00 South - Ice & Fire

    Today's stake: £24.89

    Tada gan iarracht


  8. #8
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    One more for today:

    3:00 South - Global Strategy

    Today's stake: £24.89

    Tada gan iarracht


  9. #9
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    2:00 South - Ice & Fire :(
    3:00 South - Global Strategy :) - Price matched: 1.72



    Stats.

    No. Bets: 10
    Winners: 1
    Strike Rate: 10%
    Starting Bank: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time low: £822.77

    Current Bank: £822.77

    Next Stake: £24.68

    Tada gan iarracht


  10. #10
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    Todays Stakes: £24.68

    (In the 3.40 at Newb, there are 2 qualifiers. Stake is split in two, so £12.34 goes on each)

    3.20 Newc - Political Cruise
    3.40 Newb - Shining Joy
    3.40 Newb - Moorlands Return
    4.05 Ling - Rapid City

    Tada gan iarracht


  11. #11
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    3.20 Newc - Political Cruise:(
    3.40 Newb - Shining Joy:(
    3.40 Newb - Moorlands Return:(
    4.05 Ling - Rapid City:) (Price Matched: 1.52)

    Stats.

    No. Bets: 14
    Winners: 2
    Strike Rate: 14.29%
    Starting Bank: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time low: £786.27

    Current Bank: £786.27

    Next Stake: £23.59

    Tada gan iarracht


  12. #12
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    To the annonymous neg repper - This is a TRIAL. While it is not in profit at the moment, 14 bets is nothing to go by at all. I'm not saying it will turn around, it may not - but neg rep? I have other systems here and elsewhere that show profit. I'm simply trying something out here.

    Tada gan iarracht


  13. #13
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    I don't have auto-betfair today, so early prices will be used.

    The 2:20 at Thurles has 2 qualifiers, so the stake is split evenly on both horses.





    2:20 Thur - Conem - 5.2 (£11.79)
    2:20 Thur - Demesne - 30 (£11.79)
    3:10 Sth - Pass the Port - 3.65 (£23.59)

    Tada gan iarracht


  14. #14

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    You really got neg repped???



  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by MattR View Post
    You really got neg repped???
    I sure did!

    It's not like I made the guy back the selections or anything

    Tada gan iarracht


  16. #16
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    No winners.


    Stats.

    No. Bets: 14
    Winners: 2
    Strike Rate: 12.5%
    Starting Bank: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time low: £739.09

    Current Bank: £739.09

    Next Stake: £22.17

    Tada gan iarracht


  17. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by wb View Post
    I sure did!

    It's not like I made the guy back the selections or anything
    No hard feelings


    :

    The Vegster!


    Winner of Ada's Eurovision Game 2014


  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by wb View Post
    To the annonymous neg repper - .
    I'm pretty certain who did that Wayne, and you can be sure you're not the only one who has been neg repped by this particular half wit recently. Consider that neg rep returned back at him with interest from me :)

    My keyboard's running out of ink....


  19. #19
    wb's Avatar
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    Not going too well at the moment, but I'll plug away for another while.


    Today's Stake: £22.17

    2:10 Cat - Welcome to Unos
    2.50 Ling - Imperial Lucky
    3.30 Hunt - Nice Try

    Tada gan iarracht


  20. #20
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    The carniage continues. No winners.

    Loss: £66.51

    Stats.

    No. Bets: 16
    Winners: 2
    Strike Rate: 12.5%
    Starting Bank: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time low: £672.58

    Current Bank: £672.58

    Next Stake: £22.18

    Tada gan iarracht


  21. #21
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    I don't have auto-betfair today, so early prices will be taken.

    Stakes: £22.18




    1.40 War - Onyourheadbeit - 13.0
    2.15 Gowr - Jigalo - 4.7

    Tada gan iarracht


  22. #22
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    Bank is now a paltry £628.22

    Again, I don't have auto-betfair today, so early price will be used.


    2.50 Here - Linnet - 3.2 (£18.85)

    Tada gan iarracht


  23. #23
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    Bank is £609.37. Todays stakes are £18.28. Where there are more than one qualifer in the same race, the stake is split in two. Early prices taken:

    Lingfield
    12.35 - St. Petersburg - 5.7
    2.20 - Inch by Inch - 9.4
    2.55 - Tous les Deux - 34
    2.55 - Kilmandscharo - 3.95

    Cheltenham
    3.55 - Idole First - 6.4

    Southwell
    1.50 - Almaydan - 9.8
    1.50 - Mr Prickle - 4
    2.25 - Little Big Horse - 16.5

    Tada gan iarracht


  24. #24
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    A nice high priced winner get me back in the game. Unfortunately, there were two qualifiers in the race, so the stake was split in half.


    12.35 - St. Petersburg - 5.7:(
    2.20 - Inch by Inch - 9.4:(
    2.55 - Tous les Deux - 34:)
    2.55 - Kilmandscharo - 3.95:(

    Cheltenham
    3.55 - Idole First - 6.4:(

    Southwell
    1.50 - Almaydan - 9.8:(
    1.50 - Mr Prickle - 4:(
    2.25 - Little Big Horse - 16.5:(


    Profit: £201.08



    Stats.

    No. Bets: 27
    Winners: 3
    Strike Rate: 11.11%
    Starting Bank: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time low: £609.37

    Current Bank: £873.66

    Next Stake: £26.21

    Tada gan iarracht


  25. #25

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    This is rubbish, only one 33/1 winner today. For goodness sake I have a wife and kid to support and a mortgage to pay, if you can't do any better than that I'm going in a huff. :wink

    My keyboard's running out of ink....


  26. #26

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    Well done Wayne! Lovely priced winner.



  27. #27
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    I don't have betfair auto today, so early prices taken. Stakes: £26.21

    1.30 Sth - Bienheureux - 13.5
    3.30 Sth - Count Cougar - 7.2
    3.40 Taun - Norton Sapphire - 2.74
    3.50 Folk - Ishka Baha - 4.9

    Tada gan iarracht


  28. #28
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    1.30 Sth - Bienheureux - 13.5:(
    3.30 Sth - Count Cougar - 7.2:)
    3.40 Taun - Norton Sapphire - 2.74:(
    3.50 Folk - Ishka Baha - 4.9:(


    Profit: £88.87

    Stats.

    No. Bets: 31
    Winners: 4
    Strike Rate: 12.9%
    Starting Bank: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time high: £1,000.00
    Bank all-time low: £609.37

    Current Bank: £957.53

    Next Stake: £28.73

    Tada gan iarracht


  29. #29
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    Early prices taken. Stakes: £28.73

    1.50 Newc - Glenfarclas Boy - 4.8
    3.40 Leic - Lizzy Bathwick - 10
    4.10 Leic - Major Jon - 9

    Tada gan iarracht


  30. #30
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    Bank: £871.34
    Stakes: £26.14

    Early prices taken.Where there is more than one selecion in the same race, full stakes will be used on both.

    2.00 Tow - Lusaka De Pembo - 4.4
    2.15 Thur - Abbeytown - 26
    2.15 Thur - Royal Man - 7.2
    2.30 Tow - Ever Special - 15

    Tada gan iarracht


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