Racing System Builder Users - New Possible Systems

[jackster109]

Hi

I've been looking into a few new systems using the TurfTrax website pointers.

I've followed the following on paper:

Drop In Class and Won Last Time Out
Beaten Fave LTO and finished 2nd
Odds-On Beaten Fave and finished 2nd
7 Day winner

I feel these could make some good systems and have kept the racetypes seperate too. eg. All-Weather (Handicap), All-Weather (Non-Handicap), Hurdle (Handicaps), Hurdle (Non-Handicaps) etc.

To further refine them I also only made it a system bet, if the horse was favourite.

eg. Yesterday (16/5/07) Cool Running was a 7 day winner in a non-handicap chase at Killarney yesterday. It was favourite, so therefore became a system bet and won at 6/4(SP)

So far this has thrown up 7 bets with 4 wins (57% SR) and a £1 level stake profit to +£8.40



As I have only 30 days paper-info, I can't tell if any of my systems that I am following will make a long term profit. So, I was wondering if anyone who has Racing System Builder (RSB) has ran these through before or would like to try.


Thanks

Jackster109


PS. I hope people can understand what I am trying to say

[bigcumba]

Sounds like an interesting idea, hopefully one of our RSB users will be able to run that through for you later. :)

[Jonny2621]

not from RSB but on the flat

Handicap won LTO, drop in class, favourite, results since 2000
runs 590
wins 164
s/r 27.8%
roi -4.7% to sp

Non handicap won LTO, drop in class, favourite, results since 2000
runs 276
wins 109
s/r 39.5%
roi -5.6% to sp

[Vic]

A quick look on the NH with a few addn's - covers 1993 to 2006

1. Drop in class, 1st LTO, RP Fcst Fav, Non Hc only
1203 runs
613 wins
47 point loss - but close enough to profit that likely to profit on betfair

2. Fav LTO, came 2nd, RP Fcst Fav, Non HC Only, Chase Only
555 runs
282 wins
42 point profit

3. Odds On Fav LTO, came 2nd, RP Fcst Fav
621 Runs
303 wins
74 points profit

4. Run within 7 days, won LTO, RP Fcst Fav & 2nd Fav, Handicap Hurdles Only
858 Runs
304 Wins
122 points profit

You should note that all of the above have loss making years, so it's no certainty - but not shabby either :D Also all are at SP, and with a bit of work SP is easy to beat

[wb]

I notice you include an Irish race there. Be aware that RSB covers UK racing only, so you are taking a chance in assuming the Irish stats will be similar.

[jackster109]

Cheers Vic for that.

Interesting to see the results, do you guys think that the profits over 13 years are worthwhile in pursuing.

Also 1 + 3 and assume covers both hurdles and chases are the results better limiting them to either just hurdles or chases.

Thanks

Jackster109

[jackster109]

Jonny2621 are those stats just on the turf or aw or the both combined.

[jackster109]

Another thing Vic, are those 4 systems that you've shown the only ones which make / come close to a profit. And I'm I right in thinking that my other system ideas show no profit.

Thanks

Jackster109

PS. is there anyway I could find out if these would work with Irish racing and not presume like wb has pointed out

[Jonny2621]

Jonny2621 are those stats just on the turf or aw or the both combined.

turf mate, i can get the aw stats later this afternoon when i have a bit more time if you want

[jackster109]

thanks johnny

also I dont mean to be cheeky but if you could also find out the stats for the following

7 day winners (non-handicap) and sp favourite
7 day winners (non-handicap) any sp position
7 day winners (handicap) and sp favourite
7 day winners (handicap) any sp position

for both the turf and aw

cheers

[Vic]

On the questions for me Jackster.

I've only been able to look at the NH so far - and without the few extra filters I put in all were showing fair losses.

So 1. worked for both chase & hurdle - but only for non handicaps, fcst favs
2. Only worked for non h/cap chase races, fcst favs
3. Worked all round for fcst favs
4. Only worked for Hcap Hurdles, fcst 1&2 fav

Of course none of that means they will continue to work - but I'd say they are worth you setting up small banks to pursue them - if you have the strict discipline to paper trade then that's an option - but there is nothing like doing it for real to see how it goes - but you MUST get the best prices you can, it will make a huge difference.

I have no way of knowing if it works for Irish racing - and unless you can find out I'd either not do them or at the very least keep your results separated until you can get an opinion. I do know that some folks have access to the Irish racing database on the Adrian Massey website - my guess is that you could check these out for yourself on his web database

[Jonny2621]

All weather Handicap, won LTO, down in class, SP favourite
Races 316
Won 106
S/R 33.5%
ROI -5.1%

All weather Non-Handicap, won LTO, down in class, SP favourite
Races 138
Won 42
S/R 30.45
ROI -25.6%

[jackster109]

Thanks Vic

Will try them will a small bank and see how they go

[jackster109]

thanks Jonny2621

not point in pursuing the drop in class on the flat then

[jackster109]

Is anybody with the Flat version of RSB able to look my system ideas that Johnny2621 wasnn't able to do:

7 day winners (handicaps and non-handicaps) both on the aw and turf
LTO beaten-fave finishing 2nd (aw and turf)
LTO odds-on beaten fave and finishing 2nd (aw and turf)

I have tried to this myself on flatstats (i think u need to be a member to use workshop fully). Also I tried on Adrian Masseys database but because they are based on his ratings, I don't think they show the true results.

Thanks Jackster

PS. I wish I could own RSB myself but unfortuntely can't afford it. Maybe a few big winners will change that