I had an idea about turning the 'lay the favourite' system into something different and I was wondering if anyone has any experience with this.
Instead of laying the favourite, back all the other runners, as long as the book % without the favourite is lower than 90%.
The stakes would have to be weighted, and depending on the size of the bank the high priced outsiders would have to have the minimum bet of £2 with the lower priced horses staked to return a smallish profit (between 5-10%).
The reason I ask is that I've been paper trading on laying the favourites and I've noticed that the outsiders often win the races I lay. So I was thinking that as long as the strike rate is good enough this method would return a lot more profit but for a higher risk.
Any thoughts? Is this a silly idea?
Just to clarify I'm not picking the favourites based on a system according to price, but more on looking at the form, trainer and jockeys history along with some other factors.