Mug OUFC's Really Crap Non League bets

[Mug OUFC]

I warn you now, my record is awful in this league. Help me out here - let me know if you have a different opinion and when things go wrong, why do they go wrong. Feel free to call me point and laugh and call me names

First pick

Tonight
YORK at Burton

Positives
1. Good head to head, York have won 2 and drawn 1 of last 3 here.
2. Good away record last year (57%)
3. Burton have drawn their last two opening home games
4. York have won their last two opening away games
5. Burton needed last minute equaliser to beat newly promoted histon on saturday
6. York were leading saturday until penalty and keeper sent off
7. Burton have injuries in defence (according to unreliable BBC)
8. York price inflated by saturdays result IMO

Negatives
1. Burtons first home game of the season, and under the lights on a summer evening the home team should enjoy good support.
2. Burton also had a good home record last season (57%)

I estimate percentages at a pretty even 39-17-43 and this makes the 3.05 York (before commission) on betfair appeal

2 points 3.05 (betfair before commission)

I also like Exeter and Halifax tonight at 1.66 and 1.9 respectively, but I think one of them will fail to win and I cant work out which one. Exeter look good on the stats but have injury problems in central midfield and Crawley are one of those teams that just wont give up. I like Halifax but they just seem to be a bit lacking in belief and optimism.

PLEASE ADVISE

[Merlin]

York look a fair bet to me....

Burton have a defensive crisis...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/foot...nf/6941880.stm

That price is good(3.05)....the head to head is good.......I reckon you have yourself a good bet...

ALL THEY HAVE TO DO NOW IS WIN...

[yerotsluap]

York just equalised 1-1

Good luck with the bet

[yerotsluap]

York 2-1 now

[yerotsluap]

3-1 up and burton player sent off looking more and more like a great call

[yerotsluap]

sorry for jinxing it

[Mug OUFC]

UN-BE-LIEVABLE

4-3 Burton

Burton a man and 3-1 down with 7 minutes left

Now you see why i need help

[yerotsluap]

All your reasoning was spot on

really was a ridiculous result when you see what the score was with 7 minutes left as you said

[vegyjones]

Now that's tougher to take than any bad beat I have ever seen on the poker tables!

[scoobydoo]

stewards enquiry me thinks....that is unreal! Brings back memories of Spurs v Man City in the cup few years ago...wasnt that 4-3 as well?

[mathare]

stewards enquiry me thinks....that is unreal! Brings back memories of Spurs v Man City in the cup few years ago...wasnt that 4-3 as well?

Yep, Spurs were 3-0 up at half-time and a mate of mine was in the wrong end of the ground for all 7 goals

Remember Spurs 3-5 Man Utd too? I remember reading about a Spurs fan who lumped on his team to win at half-time

[scoobydoo]

Yep, Spurs were 3-0 up at half-time and a mate of mine was in the wrong end of the ground for all 7 goals

Remember Spurs 3-5 Man Utd too? I remember reading about a Spurs fan who lumped on his team to win at half-time

Remember watching both of them Mat...the FA Cup one was unreal....City had someone sent off...was it head?! ....bet some fingers got burnt on both occasions....some lumping on at 1.01 I would think!! The United match was a saturday afternoon one and I was so down at half time...then I remembered it was Spurs!! You just never know do you....

[Merlin]

That was a one-off mate.....nothing wrong with the bet...it was looking good...just one of them things.....

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.Your just possessed by the spirit of a dead bookie

[mathare]

That was a one-off mate.....nothing wrong with the bet...it was looking good...just one of them things.....

Yeah. Carry on as you are. You researched the bet well enough but sometimes

[scoobydoo]

Absolutely right...you can bet your that if something impossible can't happen...it will if I have backed in it! Chin up mate...

[Mug OUFC]

Wish it was a one-off

Back tomorrow for more shambolic gambling

[Mug OUFC]

Watch this go tits up! :D

GRAYS v Woking.

Positives
Grays looked capable drawing at Torquay on sunday in the live game, and had chances to win it.
Grays have had a big influx of players since last seasons disappointing performance, and it would appear they have improved the quality of the squad
Grays only lost 6 of 23 at home last year in a poor year.
Grays won 5 of last 6 home games end of last season
Woking have only won 2 away games this calender year, and the squad does not look significantly improved over last year.
Grays won this fixture last season 3-0. Only other fixture at this ground was a 2-2 draw the year before.

Negatives
Grays drew too many at home last season - 9 of 23.
Wokings team, although young, is not without potential.
Woking were beating Rushden on saturday until a last minute equaliser.

Team news is neutral.

I make percentages for this a prudent 47-28-25. The 2.1 on offer for Graays at Betfred is therefore a little short of value, but I think this is the likeliest result and I will therefore condemn Grays to horrible and humiliating failure by trying them with 3 points.
GRAYS 3 points @ 2.1 (betfred). Although I may have to take the lower betfair price because i have no cash in my betfred account and my bank account is in overdraft

In the other game tonight, Aldershot Torquay, I smell a draw but have no clue really. I wonder if Tim Sills might be a good bet to score on the ground where he was so successful? Not now I've tipped him up he isnt

[yerotsluap]

good luck with this one

[vegyjones]

Negatives - Betting against any side managed by the formidable Glenn Cockerill

[Merlin]

Nice work there, C....

Again good reasoning - and agree things look good for Grays..........

HOWEVER: I realize the percentages are subjective - and you could have got them wrong.....HOWEVER, if you have them right...you kinda admit yourself, your taking a bad bet (at the price)....if you always take bets like that, over the long term you will lose......(in theory)......I will reiterate this does depend on your percentages being correct and consistently correct.....

In saying that , without going into percentages.......Grays @ 1.50 with Blue Square...DRAW NO BET......looks cool.....

[mathare]

In saying that , without going into percentages.......Grays @ 1.50 with Blue Square...DRAW NO BET......looks cool.....

If you're considering draw no bet you should also be looking at the prices to lay the opposition as it's a good alternative and you may actually get a better price. True, in the non-league markets there isn't much liquidity but it's worth a look sometimes. And of course you have the draw on your side this time.

If you're ever looking to dutch a win and a draw you should always compare the dutched odds to the lay of the opposition to see how they compare.

In this case Woking are available to lay at 4.1 on Betfair, which is close to your 25% win chance.

If your percentages are anywhere close you have no real value bets on this match based on the current odds, as Merlin has already indicated. Only you know how historically accurate your percentages are.

[Merlin]

Thats a good alternative Mat..........laying the oppo.....but as you point out......its getting exchange liquidity thats the problem..........

[mathare]

Thats a good alternative Mat..........laying the oppo.....but as you point out......its getting exchange liquidity thats the problem..........

£1800 matched on this event at the mo, which is more than I expected if I am honest. And it's gone up £50-£100 since I first checked it 10-15 minutes ago and the prices have moved slightly with Woking layable at 4.0 now. Even if you have a quick glance and decide the market isn't liquid enough to bother with I'd say it's always worth a look at the exchange odds and considering alternative bets to the straight fixed odds win/draw/win bets

[Merlin]

£1800 matched on this event at the mo, which is more than I expected if I am honest. And it's gone up £50-£100 since I first checked it 10-15 minutes ago and the prices have moved slightly with Woking layable at 4.0 now. Even if you have a quick glance and decide the market isn't liquid enough to bother with I'd say it's always worth a look at the exchange odds and considering alternative bets to the straight fixed odds win/draw/win bets

That’ll be the Essex boys backing their team with their dodgy spondulicks…

[Mug OUFC]

What, both Grays fans :D

I havent got an account at blue square, best i can get on a DNB is going to be around 1.4 i think. Is this worth the risk? Woking can win this.

Are you basing this purely on my percentages, which I dont think are miles off but my record suggests they arent the best

[Merlin]

What, both Grays fans :D

I havent got an account at blue square, best i can get on a DNB is going to be around 1.4 i think. Is this worth the risk? Woking can win this.

Are you basing this purely on my percentages, which I dont think are miles off but my record suggests they arent the best

If you think Woking can win....thats your bet then...….

According to Statto . com percentages….WOKING are the value…..

BUT THIS IS NOT ME RECOMENDING THE BET…..

Just adding to the discussion….

[Mug OUFC]

Maybe it would be useful to explain how haphazardly i put my percentages together.

At this early stage of the season, I look at the 1x2 percentages home or away for each team last year. I appreciate this isnt ideal, this is a new year with new players, but its the best Ive got right now.

So grays were 8-9-6 at home last season which is 35%, 39%, 26%.
Woking were 7-4-12 away which is 30%, 17%, 52%

Averaging these against each other gives a 1X2 percentage of 43%, 28%, 28%.

Then looking at head to head (3-0 Grays last season) and clubs transfer activity, unscientifically take 3% from woking and give it to Grays to get 47-28-25. This may have been a little overcautious and I should actually maybe have nudged the draw % up too as both teams drew first time out, and the draw is the big danger for me.

[mathare]

Seems fair enough to me fella.

Perhaps you could throw in more seasons to see what impact that has on things. The biggest problem though is measuring the profitability of any changes you make to your 'system'. But as a guide your percentages seem sensible. But looking at the odds there is poor value in this one I think. It'd be a game I'd swerve if it were me

[yerotsluap]

In the other game tonight, Aldershot Torquay, I smell a draw but have no clue really. I wonder if Tim Sills might be a good bet to score on the ground where he was so successful? Not now I've tipped him up he isnt

Sills popped up with the first goal

[Mug OUFC]

Didnt back either in the end. Sills was about 8/1 for first goalscorer

You guys did a proper job of talking me out of the other one though, thank you