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Thread: Mug OUFC's Really Crap Non League bets

  1. #61

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    Cheers Merl :D

    Bets: 4
    Won: 2
    Staked: 9 pts
    Profit: 4.52 pts

    Oxford v Stafford

    Positives
    H2H Oxford won home and away last season
    Stafford lost a lot of players close season including top striker Guy Madjo
    Stafford lost 3 of 3, 2 of which were at home and have only managed one goal conceding 6.
    Oxford off back of confidence building win at burton and have 6 points from 3 games (2 away).
    Team news is neutral.

    Negatives
    Stafford will park the bus and oxford struggle to break down teams who play negatively.
    Oxford can lack concentration and concede silly counterattack goals.
    Stafford pulled off some shocks away from home last season and didnt have a bad away record.

    Found 1.52 on betfair for this, there will be murders if oxford dont win. 5 points on the home win.



  2. #62

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    Should be a straightforward win for Oxfordians…….I know its Friday…but still a bit early to be drunk……. 5 POINTS

    The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.

    Mark Twain.


  3. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mug OUFC View Post
    An interesting question which i have been pondering myself

    Merlin knows his stuff and on this thread alone has been proved right 90% of the time.

    My gut feeling isnt always right.

    BUT 1.99 seems a big price for two teams who score and concede a lot. Value...or a trap?

    So it goes back to the same question - gut feeling vs logical thinking.

    What would you do?

    Gut feeling at least 90% of the time.



  4. #64

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    S...the problem with relying on gut feeling....is it is obviously extremely subjective, often, mood dependent….and has no real basis for long term profit…

    If you rely on gut feeling 90% of the time…you may aswell make your picks according to your daily horoscope..

    Although I do agree that whatever gut feeling maybe , it comes into the equation…but 90%....your aving a laugh, Mate...…

    The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.

    Mark Twain.


  5. #65

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    Are you suggesting my stake is a little strong merlin? :D



  6. #66

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    Cant find ANYTHING else I like tonight or tomorrow



  7. #67

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    Crew at 6/5 to beat us is surely the bookies trying to throw there money at the punter.

    If we come home with a point, I'll be ecstatic (providing it's not a last minute equaliser we let in )

    Oxford to beat Stafford must be the home banker to end all home bankers in the world of homes or bankers :D 1.52, it's like all your Christmases come early!!! Surely

    The Vegster!


    Winner of Ada's Eurovision Game 2014


  8. #68

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mug OUFC View Post
    Are you suggesting my stake is a little strong merlin? :D
    You should be OK this time.....but dont forget to pray.. tonight….

    The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.

    Mark Twain.


  9. #69

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    I may have a nibble at crewe then vegy thanks

    I dont know merl, you tell me my balls aint purple enough then you tell me to pray when i put 5/10 on a 1.5 shot. I reckon youre winding me up



  10. #70

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    Got to have a laugh now and then Merlin, though 90% could be a bit steep.



  11. #71

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mug OUFC View Post
    I reckon youre winding me up
    Never....

    The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.

    Mark Twain.


  12. #72

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    Oxford won 2-1, should have been about 5 or 6 up by the time stafford got a goal back and then it was squeaky bum time

    Bets: 5
    Won:4
    Staked: 14 pts
    Profit: 7 pts

    Theres a few home wins i like tomorrow - prices wont be big though...wonder how two games in three days will affect conference sides?

    As for the oxford game, live on telly. That is a very hard one to call. Stevenage beat kidderminster 2-0 last week without having a single corner or attacking free kick apparently.



  13. #73

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    4 wins out of 5 bets good going mate



  14. #74

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    Sorry that should be 3/5 :splapme

    Thanks anyway, profit figure is right



  15. #75

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    Bets i am contemplating for tomorrow. No team news out yet so that may change things. Anyone got any feelings on these?

    Burton v Farsley - looks a home win here and should be goals in it so overs? Clare got a head injury at weymouth though, if he doesnt play that might put me off.

    Cambridge v Ebbsfleet - home win again ebbsfleet arent as good as gravesend were despite beating a poor halifax saturday and cambridge are solid.

    Exeter v weymouth - looks a rock solid home win EXCEPT exeter had what looks a reasonably tiring trip up north saturday while weymouth have had an extra two days rest since thursday nights game home to burton.

    Northwich v York - york cant be trusted at the moment but looks good for the overs this one



  16. #76

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    First 3 look good for home wins..C...I wouldnt touch that York game....Iistened to the commentary last game at home….they were terrible, think they had 1 real chance all game…their own fans (2000 odd) were booing them at the end….

    The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.

    Mark Twain.


  17. #77

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    I had my last tenner in the world on cambridge...and they were lucky to draw. I would add this 2 point loss to my betting figures but I wouldnt have added it if it had won so I wont.

    It was a topsy turvy day in the conference with some very strange results...was this due to two games in three days?



  18. #78

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    Absolutely no clue in tonights live game to be honest, and no money to bet anyway. Payday tomorrow



  19. #79

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    York.....wont be having my money though....

    The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.

    Mark Twain.


  20. #80

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    Thats my guess too, probably only way Id bet it is with your money



  21. #81

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    2-3 away win

    In poker parlance I believe that is known as a good fold



  22. #82

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    One is vexed

    I took a day off work today as i am starting a 3 day detox diet that consists of eating only apples. My mood and energy is therefore around 3 points.

    This vexation is further exacerbated by the fact that Ive left all my conference data at work. I can access my work email but cant access my files. Therefore, I am flying blind for tomorrows games. Nicht gut. Might have to sit out.



  23. #83

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mug OUFC View Post
    One is vexed

    I took a day off work today as i am starting a 3 day detox diet that consists of eating only apples. My mood and energy is therefore around 3 points.

    Eating Apples for 3 days?.?... Naw .. do it the Scottish way mate, just drink a case of cider... ...



  24. #84

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  25. #85

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    Quote Originally Posted by monty View Post
    Eating Apples for 3 days?.?... Naw .. do it the Scottish way mate, just drink a case of cider... ...

    The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.

    Mark Twain.


  26. #86

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    Right, off to the game. I reckon prices of ~1.8 about oxford are good enough for me. Halifax had a good result LTO but that was against opposition who are, frankly, wánk. They have been a poor away side for some time now. We might be missing hutchinson in midfield and that would be a blow but we do have more attacking cover which may mean more chance of goals. Paul Shaw (ex arsenal, millwall, gillingham, etc etc) has been brought in as attacking cover so we may be spared the embarassment of fielding marvin robinson with our attacking injuries.

    It might be the apples talking, but Ill go 4 points on oxford today at 1.79 (betfair)



  27. #87

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    I agree , Oxford win......C...no worries.......

    You only sing when your rowing........

    The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.

    Mark Twain.


  28. #88

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    HOW FRUSTRATING



  29. #89

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    Bets: 6
    Won:3
    Staked: 18 pts
    Profit: 0.17 pts

    My bets for tuesday, pointing and laughing will be permitted

    Droylsden v STEVENAGE Evens @ betfred (3 points)
    - Droylsden have lost their last 4 (2 home 2 away), although these games are against decent opposition
    - Droylsden yet to win a game
    - Stevenage won 4 of 6
    - Stevenage won 2 of 3 away against decent opposition, only loss opening day defeat at crawley

    Stevenage are playing well and assuming droylsdens pitch isnt a non-league shambles (i havent been there yet) evens looks a spiffing price here.

    TORQUAY v Salisbury 1.64 betfair (3 points)
    - Torquay won 4 of 6
    - Torquay yet to lose
    - Torquay scoring goals - 13 in last 5 games
    - Salisbury are yet to win away
    - Salisbury beaten some decent teams at home but have failed to beat the newly promoted teams away (although they have drawn 2 of 3)
    This one does have that whiff of a possible upset about it to me, but i keep missing out on backing torquay because they have most of oxfords cast offs from last year. But they seem to be a solid bet.

    Northwich v BURTON @ 2.4 (betfair) (3 points)
    - northwich not too clever at the moment (started last year badly too)
    - burton done the double in this fixture last year.
    - Burton are drawn 2 lost 1 away but are slowly getting players back.
    - Northwich have lost 5 of 6 and are leaking goals like crazy.
    - Northwichs pitch is a perfect surface for burtons style of play.

    2 winners from 3 will mean profit

    Im also going to try something a bit different. I fancy goals in the following games:
    farsley 2.04
    FGR 1.9
    York 1.9
    and so am on a over 2.5 goals treble for 1 point.

    Also an under 2.5 goals double:
    ebbsfleet 1.9
    rushden 1.9
    1 point

    11 points staked. Is this too much?



  30. #90

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    The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.

    Mark Twain.


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