Mug OUFC's Really Crap Non League bets

[Mug OUFC]

[Merlin]

........Only when I celebrate..

[Mug OUFC]

Anyway, any constructive criticism? :D :wink

[Skittle]

Yes, you are trying to do too much at once, hedging almost. Keep it simple. One winner out of that lot could win you just as much.

[Mug OUFC]

ok, thats what i thought

so which ones to drop?

i probably like stevenage most, just stick with that?

[Mug OUFC]

although i do like burton :D

but thats two aways and one is bound to not come in

[Mug OUFC]

Right im taking burton out - clare is injured and they are down to their bare bones. Still think they will win though.

Also taking york out of the overs treble as they have signed a new keeper.

Also sacking off the unders double due to various team news.

So bets are now:

Stevenage @ Evens (3/10)
Torquay @ 1.66 (3/10)
Over 2.5 goals double: Farsley and Forest Green (1/10)

10 points on all the bets I have chosen failing and all the bets I have removed coming in

[Merlin]

Good Luck...C.......look good...

[Skittle]

Does it feel better now Mug ? If only it was that easy every time, although you did stick with the double, albeit at low stakes.

[Skittle]

Checking out the results from last time, forget the above, I'm not long up.

[Mug OUFC]

MORNING SKITTLE

[monty]

I warn you now, my record is awful in this league. Help me out here - let me know if you have a different opinion and when things go wrong, why do they go wrong.

Hi Mate

I was just wondering if you kept a record of the results on this League, or any other sort of information to help you with your picks?????

[Mug OUFC]

Monty my friend. I have got football-data stats and michael wray spreadsheets (great as reference material). So loads of data.

Problem with the conf - stats themselves dont really seem to be consistent enough. its a topsy turvy league. games within days of each other, suspensions and injuries, massively variable pitches, genuinely shocking refereeing, inconsistent non-professional and professional players...theres a load of stuff that can screw a decent looking bet up for you.

[monty]

The reason that I was asking you was that last year, I kept a ratings sheet on the Conference League, but I didn’t continue it this year as I didn’t think many people were interested in the games. I did manage to get myself the odd winner from the highly rated home picks, but most of the games were just like you said “hard to pick”.

[monty]

I like the look Stevenage and Burton Albion away.

[Merlin]

Your bets are looking very good ...C...well done...nice to see someone splattering the bookies.......nice one...

Well done to M.....Ayr are home and hosed....surely....2-0 up...

[Skittle]

A very good morning to you guys. It's like having the 'M' team around when you need help.


Mug..........singles were good enough. Personally I don't dabble on things like overs. It's almost like it's too much work running through the stats. I do stray from the straight win single bet now and then, but not often.

[monty]

A very good morning to you guys. It's like having the 'M' team around when you need help.

'M' team...

[Mug OUFC]

Success for a change

I got 1.78 for torquay on betfair last night, inexplicably, but i'll put 1.64 in my stats cos thats what i posted up.

Annoyed with myself a bit for leaving out burton, i really fancied that, need more confidence in myself sometimes...

skittle i know your right and gooner often says how he tried to get a system for picking over/unders, but it never profited as the market is too unpredictable

Bets: 9
Won:5
Staked: 25 pts
Profit: 5 pts

5 points profit from 25 staked. YOU DONT GET THAT SORT OF RETURN FROM A BANK ACCOUNT

[Mug OUFC]

The reason that I was asking you was that last year, I kept a ratings sheet on the Conference League, but I didn’t continue it this year as I didn’t think many people were interested in the games. I did manage to get myself the odd winner from the highly rated home picks, but most of the games were just like you said “hard to pick”.

Theres definitely more interest now with so many games televised on nights when theres nowt else on...and people are desperate for info because even the commentators know **** all about the teams (paul parker on setanta keeps calling us oxford city ) so i encourage you to resurrect your sheet if it can give us any sort of edge

The amazing thing i find with the league is, as you know i watch oxford home and most away games, and teams can look brilliant against us (supposedly one of the top teams in the league although current form would suggest otherwise) and then go out in their next game and get humped at home by someone dreadful. And vice versa. Its baffling at times.

[monty]

My team Ayr Utd had a player who once played for your team Oxford Utd at one point, this player was captain at both clubs and a great servant to both clubs, but can you remember who this player is?

He was a cult hero at Ayr and a lot of the Ayr Utd supporters would like this guy to come back as manager at some point in the future.

[monty]

Theres definitely more interest now with so many games televised on nights when theres nowt else on...and people are desperate for info because even the commentators know **** all about the teams (paul parker on setanta keeps calling us oxford city ) so i encourage you to resurrect your sheet if it can give us any sort of edge

I haven't updated the Non League ratings yet, but I did put the weekends fixtures into my quick sheet, this is a sheet I use for leagues that I know nothing about, it gives out home -away and season form and picks out what it thinks are likely results. It's just a guide but can fling out a few winners every now and again. And just incase you want to know?, this is what it said about your league weekend fixtures.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Homes:

Stevenage v’s Stafford Rangers ……. Home Win (Monday) 19.45pm

Crawley v’s Droylsden ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

Aldershot v’s Northwich ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Draws:

Gray’s Athletic v’s Forest Green …….Draw (Saturday) 3.00pm
Exeter v’s Cambridge Utd …….Draw (Saturday) 3.00pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Away Wins:

Altrincham v’s Oxford Utd …….Away Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

To be honest with you mate there is not much of a surprise with that lot, but it could be worth doing the home treble? as all the home teams will be playing teams at the bottom of the table.

It's your league "C" so you can let me know what you think of this weekends picks.

Last night it gave out Stevenage and Burton, but I didn't bet on them as I had already done my own team Ayr Utd.

[Mug OUFC]

I havent looked at the weekend myself yet monty, but like you say its pumping out sensible predictions there.

An oxford captain who also played for Ayr...i dont know is it before my time We've had a fair few scottish players recently but i dont know if any of them played for ayr.

Onto tonights TV game. Stafford v Halifax. I will be backing Halifax. Reasons for this:
1. Stafford are crap.
2. Halifax arent as crap.
3. No other reasoning is necessary.

2 points Halifax @ 2.37 (bet365)

[vegyjones]

I did fancy Halifax myself at above evens. Especially since Stafford would appear to be the Blue Square Premier (nay Conference :D ) whipping boys!

However, even whiping boys pick up the odd point here and there, and Halifax look to be one of the teams they might take something from in their current state!

But good luck Mug!

[monty]

I havent looked at the weekend myself yet monty, but like you say its pumping out sensible predictions there.

An oxford captain who also played for Ayr...i dont know is it before my time We've had a fair few scottish players recently but i dont know if any of them played for ayr.

I'm going back a long time.... He was English and his name was Malcolm Shotton, do you remember him?

[vegyjones]

He played for Oxford when they were good - you ARE going back a long time!

[monty]

He played for Oxford when they were good - you ARE going back a long time!

He was a hard b~~~~~d when he played for Ayr Utd, he didn't take any crap from anyone.

[Mug OUFC]

F off vegy

Malcolm shotton is a legend, monty Didnt know he played for Ayr.

I never saw him play but he wasnt too clever as manager, sadly.

[monty]

F off vegy

Malcolm shotton is a legend, monty Didnt know he played for Ayr.

I never saw him play but he wasnt too clever as manager, sadly.

He tried to get the vacant managers job at Ayr last season, but he didn't get it. I seen just about every game he played with Ayr Utd and that was nearing the end of his playing career, he was very good then, so I would imagine that he was a cracking player in his younger days.
There was also another couple of players who were connected with both clubs, Nigel Jemson left Ayr to go back to your team for his 2nd spell at the club and John Robertson also left Ayr but returned the following season.

[Mug OUFC]

I did fancy Halifax myself at above evens.

However, even whiping boys pick up the odd point here and there, and Halifax look to be one of the teams they might take something from in their current state!

But good luck Mug!

To be honest having seen both teams already this season at the kasstad, the difference between these teams is night and day and I was considering a bet triple the size. The only thing that is reining me in is the fact that stafford cut their grass very long last season, and if they are still doing this this will not suit halifax who are a footballing side. I may increase my stake in running if it looks like halifax can zip it about.