Mug OUFC's Really Crap Non League bets

[Mug OUFC]

Merlin you are the man for staking strategies...what would you do here?

I like 4 of the home teams here, Halifax, Kidderminster, Salisbury and Stevenage. I may take out Salisbury and/or Halifax depending on team news and maybe replace one of them with Aldershot.

Odds are around 1.4 to 1.6. At these odds doubles and trebles would require all 4 to come in to profit so they are no good. A 4 team acca sounds good but still need all 4 to come in and one will probably it up, especially as these are midweek fixtures.

Best way to stake it?

[Merlin]

Are the kick-offs the same time?

[monty]

The choice is yours mate. I've just been taking what I think is the strongest bets at the best odds. (I'm not saying bet them all, just the ones you like)

For Tuesdays games I've entererd in all the info and that's what the sheet said are likely winners. I don't have much of a clue about this League but the ratings sheet has so far correctly picked 10 wins from 13 matches.
I had originally dropped this league as it was very inconsistant last season, one week it would pick lots of winners for me and the next it was really rubbish. (This is what I fear most, so far it has been good, but it could go all wrong)
I've already said in a previous post about my concerns with this league. I'll probably take 3 of the teams and put on singles and a treble, but it will be small bets.

[Merlin]

Hi Skittle...

[Mug OUFC]

Are the kick-offs the same time?

Ja :)

[Mug OUFC]

P.S You can call me skittle if you like :D

[monty]

Hi Skittle...

Thought you were going out?

[Merlin]

Been and come back...

[monty]

P.S You can call me skittle if you like :D

Lol Sorry mate.... I had intended to write a reply to skittle thread on G.G but ended up writing this one first.

[monty]

Been and come back...

Ok ...I had thought you were away out for a few

[monty]

Mug OUFC

I meant to ask you last week, how did you get on with your detox diet, did you go for the apples or the cider?...

[Merlin]

Ja :)

Well with 4 games kicking off at the same time…you have 2 options…

1 x acca
4 x trebles

At the prices you will get between 3ish and 4ish points back for 1 treble….in other words….money back job…….

I would play 4 trebles……..

And its a fact that 4 trebles will always return more than an acca....so that’s the way I would go….

But of course , without 3 winners you lose 4 points instead of 1 (if you did the acca)…

[Skittle]

Hi Skittle...

???

Went to work at 6.30ish, got back at 1.30ish. You checking me out

[Mug OUFC]

Mug OUFC

I meant to ask you last week, how did you get on with your detox diet, did you go for the apples or the cider?...

Apples It was hell. I had the whole lot, 48 hour headache, nausea, flu like symptoms. I lost about half a stone, and there isnt a lot of me to lose.

NEVER AGAIN

[Mug OUFC]

Well with 4 games kicking off at the same time…you have 2 options…

1 x acca
4 x trebles

At the prices you will get between 3ish and 4ish points back for 1 treble….in other words….money back job…….

I would play 4 trebles……..

And its a fact that 4 trebles will always return more than an acca....so that’s the way I would go….

But of course , without 3 winners you lose 4 points instead of 1 (if you did the acca)…

OK cheers, will go with the trebles then unless I cut it down to 3 selections

[Mug OUFC]

BET ANALYSIS
Won 9
Lost 8
Total 17
Strike Rate 53%
Total Staked 54.00
Profit(loss) 8.91
Yield 17%

[Mug OUFC]

Northwich have sacked neil redfearn. Doubt they will have someone new in place in time for tomorrow night but should this be enough of a random factor to put me off the halifax bet?...i do still reckon halifax will win...but it is a night when there are plenty of options

[monty]

Apples It was hell. I had the whole lot, 48 hour headache, nausea, flu like symptoms. I lost about half a stone, and there isnt a lot of me to lose.

NEVER AGAIN

Why did you do it...Lol

I told you mate, you should have done it the Scottish way but you might still have got yourself a headache...:splapme

[Mug OUFC]

I had to cleanse my bowels I have been put on a starch free diet so had to start from a clean slate, as it were Not sure if cider would have worked quite so well, would have been a lot more fun though :D

Anyway, what effect do you think the managerial change at northwich will have on the halifax bet? Paul warhurst has been put in caretaker charge.

[monty]

I have a betting book that says a team who gets a new manager has the same chance of winning as they did with the old manager. It also says people only remember the games when a new manager was appointed and won they never remember the game when a new manager was appointed and lost.

My opinion is Northwich are crap just now and Halifax have played well at home in their last few games, so I'll stick with the home team. If you have any doubts about the game just give it a miss. Plenty of other bets to go with.

[Mug OUFC]

Mmm I saw somewhere that it does have an effect...but only at home

Ill stick with it

[Mug OUFC]

6 point treble @ bluesquare
Halifax 1.61
Kidderminster 1.53
Stevenage 1.4

ive dropped salisbury...they are a newly promoted team playing for the first time as warm favourites. 1.6ish doesnt appeal to me, even against sh1t stafford. Stafford have loaned a keeper and defender from watford in the last week. The odds necessitate multiple bets tonight, and I dont like big multiple bets... even trebles are too big for my liking, and a four fold is far too many on a midweek. Im just going to, perhaps foolishly, avoid salisbury.

[Merlin]

Thats a dodgy all in stake strategy , C....

[Mug OUFC]

Is it? Even on such short prices?

Odds for 1 double would come in at about 2.5 - it would be 3 doubles, so a double coming in is a small loss anyway.

I would be doubling my money on doubles if all three came in, whereas in the treble Im tripling it? And its 1 bet instead of 3?

Its too late now anyway but would you have reduced the stake or taken it in doubles?

[Merlin]

Is it? And its 1 bet instead of 3?

But that’s irrelevant , (in this instance) coz the total stake is still the same…..

What I am referring to is the risk and possible return for your stake….

I agree that playing 3 x 2 point doubles returns about 13 points….losing for only 1 double……

However, if you were to pick your best 2 bets, and placed a 3 point double , and include the other game in a 3 point treble…you would get about 17 Points back……Moreover, if only your double came in, you would still show a small profit…

For a straight treble you get just over 20 Points back……in my opinion…if you compare this against the 3 point double and 3 point treble strategy – which returns 17 points – it is obvious to me mind that the latter is better…coz you got the safety net of small profit for your double…

Have I made sense…

[Mug OUFC]

*penny drops* I would never have thought about playing it as 1 double and 1 treble, as soon as i think doubles i think its 3 doubles. I like the idea of picking the best two and adding in the third as a treble - the maths work. That is what I should have done not only tonight but this last weekend - stevenage and torquay in a double and burton in a treble. Lesson learnt

The only thing that would worry me about this is that if one of the teams in your double AND treble failed, youve lost everything...and you may as well be on the treble for more profit if thats the case...??

of course i do have stevenage tonight as well as a single...to get my matched bet at bluesq.

[monty]

Merlin

You said you aimed for 100 points in a whole season, do you have set amount of points to aim for in each day?

[Merlin]

[QUOTE=Mug OUFC;438855The only thing that would worry me about this is that if one of the teams in your double AND treble failed, youve lost everything...and you may as well be on the treble for more profit if thats the case...??

[/QUOTE]

...

You cant have it all ways.....

I will tell you now, the bookie would prefer you to place the treble instead of 1 double and treble……

And that says it all…

[Merlin]

Merlin

You said you aimed for 100 points in a whole season, do you have set amount of points to aim for in each day?

No.....but I was hoping to make about 12 Points profit per month(average)

[monty]

Cheers Mate.... that sounds like a good amount to aim for. I've never really had a set amount to aim for before. I normally just try to make enough to pay for a 2 week family holiday in the Med each year.