To be honnest this dosn't look a spectacular card IMO, true - it will be good to see how the main event GG and coture match up, and the GSP vs Koscheck looks an ok matchup, however the Marcus Aurelio vs. Clay Guida being on the undercard is a big dissapointment as that looks like possibly the fight of the night, and one that i do hope they show on TV.
as for the card:
MAIN CARD
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Randy Coture
The main event for the heavyweight title. This fight i must confess i didn't see comming, A while back i would have been expecting a Tim Sylvia title defence against Cro-Cop. However with Randy coture making an impressive comeback from retirement in a dominating victory over Sylvia, and the big shock of a Gonzaga victory via 1st round KO over Cro-Cop (with cro-cop getting KTFO 'knocked the **** out' if you will excuse my language) with a highlight real worthy head kick after a dominant ground performance.
This matchup looks to be a close fought fight, as both fighters are well rounded, i was impressed with cotures ability to stand with Sylvia last time out, Gonzaga is also capable on his feet and has the extra KO power over coture. Randy had a better wrestling game than gonzaga who has the better submission skills. As i think this fight will go the full 5 rounds cardio will play a part in the fight, on paper this should benefit the 'much' younger stronger fighter in gonzaga, however even at the age of 43 nobody can rule coture out as he has proved many times over in gruling 5 round fights.
As for the betting, it's really not a fight i want to get involved in that much, it will be a close fought 5 rounder, and i can see either fighter taking it, Coture battling for a points win, though i do think that gonzaga has the better chance of getting a stoppage. Though for my pick i will go for the underdog for value purposes in a very even contest:
VERDICT - Randy Coture
Josh Koscheck vs George St Pierre
A very important fight for both of these fighters in the welterweight division, GSP will be wanting another shot at the title which he lost in one of the biggest upsets in the UFC against matt serra. Koscheck still has a lot to prove to many in the UFC and this is a deffinate step forward in his title aspirations.
Koscheck is very much a wrestler, infact one of the best in the UFC however his 'lay-n-prey' approach to a few of his fights havn't gone down well with many, he has excelent takedowns and his stand up is much improved recently.
GSP is a great all round fighter, notably in the standup. One factor that will be important in this fight is his ability to get back on his feet when he has been taken down, a quality that he will need against his opponent.
as for the fight i deffinately favour GSP in this one, he has the better standup, top level experience and the nak of being hard to keep on the ground.
VERDICT - George St Pierre.
Joe Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino
Both fighters are primaraly wrestling / submission specialists in this fight, however i feel that Stevenson is superior in all aspects of his game than pellegrino.
VERDICT - Joe Stevenson
Kendall Grove vs Patrick Cote
The impressive and ever improving Grove takes on Cote wo is looking to build on his 1st UFC victory. Cote has been around a good deal of time, has ok all round skills and has fought some tough competition, However he's never been all that impressive, he fails to finish fights and his last win was on points showed this, he also has weeknesses in being reletavely easy to take down.
Grove has looked impressive recently and always improving. I feel that he will have too much for Cote in this fight.
VERDICT - Kendall Grove
Roger Huerta vs Alberto Crane
I don't know much about Crane other than his impressive record (8-1) on the smaller MMA shows, 7 via submission. Huerta has been impressive in the lightweight division, with good standup and ground skills.
I still think Huerta will take this fight however due to the low odd's and the fact i havn't seen Crane, it's not a fight i will
UNDERCARD
Clay Guida vs Marcus Aurelio
What looks to be fight of the night (on the undercard???), Guida has been most impressive so far in the UFC with non stop action from start to finish, a defeat last time out to the equally impressive tyson griffen dosn't detract from his impressive performance.
Aurelio may not be known to many UFC followers, however he is a top notch grappler from the pride organisation who choked out the number 1 rated Gomi (losing by decision in a re-match).
Aurelio has been inactive for a while which could be a shock to him when he come up against the non-stop Guida, however it could be said that Aurelio has the better stopping power - especially in the submission department. Which makes this a tricky fight to call, Guida on points or Aurelio via submission, i won't be betting on this however give Guida the nod.
VERDICT - Guida
Thales Leites vs Ryan Jensen
Good wrestling / takedown skills will be in action in this fight, Leites looked particulary impressive in his last 2 fights and i feel that he will have the edge in this one.
VERDICT - Leites
Renato 'babalu' Sobral vs David Heath
Its been a bad year for babalu, - taken apart quickly by chuck liddell and a poor effort against jason lambert, taking a beating in both fights, Not to mention a run in with the law (and club bouncers) which may have disrupted his preperation. The undefeated Heath was looking good untill last time out in a throughly boring fight against Machida who just executed a gameplan to outpoint heath.
This is a very unpredictable fight due to the inconsistency factors in both fighters, looking at the odd's i certainly wouldn't back babalu, which leaves an outsider bet on Heath, who does look the value option, however i certainly won't be risking my cash on the fight.
VERDICT - Heath
Frank Mir vs Antoni Hardonk
Grappler vs standup in this fight with both fighters having major weeknesses. Since his motorbike accident Mir has only been a shadow of his former self, he has looked poor in his last fights, lacking standup and conditioning. The opposit is true of Hardonk, who possesses good standup skills, with poor ground skills.
The fight will basically go to whoever imposes there will on it - if mir gets it to the ground he wins, if it's a standup battle Hardonk wins. I have been particulary un-impressed with Mir recently and with Hardonk being the underdog gives me good reason to back him.
VERDICT - Hardonk
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