mathare's Champions League football bets

[mathare]

Buoyed by my success so far in the English leagues I have decided to take my stats-based approach into Europe and see how it gets on with the Champions League games.

All bets are 1pt unless stated otherwise

20/02/08
Celtic v Barcelona
X-Corners OVER 22 0.25pt per point spread bet (BetHiLo) 8pts (1*8) -3.5pts
Messi to score at anytime @ 7/4 (ToteSport) W (18 mins) +1.75pts
Barcelona (-1) corner handicap @ evens (Bet365) W (1-8) +1pts

Lyon v Manchester United
Ronaldo to score at anytime @ 23/10 (Paddy Power) L -1pt

Fenerbahce v Sevilla
Under 10 corners @ 10/11 (Bet365) L (10) -1pt
Exactly 10 corners saver (0.13pts) @ 15/2 (Bet365) W (10) +1pt

Arsenal v AC Milan
Over 2.5 goals @ 5/4 (Bet365) L (0-0) -1pt
Under 10 corners @ evens (Bet365) L (11) -1pt
Exactly 10 corners saver (0.13pts) @ 15/2 (Bet365) L (11) -0.13pts
AC Milan first card @ 4/5 (Bet365) W (Da Silva, 33) +0.8pts

[mathare]

At half-time we have two bets already settled as winners with Messi scoring after 18 minutes (and at a very generous 7/4 which was great value based on the stats this season) and Da Silva of AC Milan getting booked in the 33rd minute.

Unfortunately there have been 8 corners in the first half of Fenerbahce v Sevilla so the under 10 looks dodgy there, and the saver looks no more certain.

Barcelona lead Celtic 5-1 on Corners in that match giving a current make-up of 5 on the X-corners market. But every Celtic corner is now worth at least 5 on that so I remain confident of nothing more than a small loss on that, at worst.

Arsenal and AC Milan are going to have to go some to produce the three goals I need to see in the second half though...

[wb]

Messi to score at anytime @ 7/4 (ToteSport)

In retrospect, that was a great price really.

[mathare]

Only 4 winners from 10 bets tonight. Down 3.08pts overall I think it works out at.

The Celtic v Barca game went alright for me. Could have done with some more home corners though. Just one more would have wiped out 2pts of that loss. But that's the risk with spread betting. I knew from the stats that that game would have around 8-10 corners in but I was hoping for them to be more evenly spread between the sides. Ahh well.

Ronaldo didn't score but that was an excellent price from Paddy Power on that one. Everyone else had him priced up around 13/8 so the 23/10 was an incredible offer.

Fenerbahce and Sevilla calmed down in the second half and registered just two further corners to trigger the saver, thankfully.

The Arsenal game was the most disappointing of the lot for me. One too many corners and far too few goals. At least AC got the first booking I guess.

More bets next time the Champions League is on (a week or two I guess)

[vegyjones]

More bets next time the Champions League is on (a week or two I guess)

3 weeks is what I heard Mat

[Mattw07]

3 weeks is what I heard Mat

Only the liverpool Inter match in 3 weeks all the others in 2, as AC and inter are both at home for there 2nd Legs, I think.

[mathare]

04/03/08

AC Milan v Arsenal
AC Milan @ 5/4 (Totesport) L (0-2) -1pt
Under 10 corners @ evens (Bet365) L (11 corners) -1pt
0.13pts exactly 10 corners @ 15/2 (Bet365) L (11 corners) -0.13pts

Barcelona v Celtic
Barcelona win to nil @ 8/11 (Paddy Power) W (1-0) +0.73pts
Under 3.5 cards @ 4/5 (Bet365) W (no bookings) +0.8pts
Celtic 1st booking @ 8/13 (Blue Square) L (no bookings) -1pt

Man Utd v Lyon
Over 2.5 goals @ evens (Blue Square) L (1-0) -1pt

I think the other match (Sevilla v Fenerbahce) will also go over 2.5 goals but I'd want 8/11 about it and that's just not available

[Win2Win]

Poor start for Celtic

[mathare]

I think the other match (Sevilla v Fenerbahce) will also go over 2.5 goals but I'd want 8/11 about it and that's just not available

And it does so inside 20 minutes. Typical!

[mathare]

Only 2 out of 7 this evening. Both Arsenal games have cost me a bit :( Lost a further 2.60pts this evening

Totals
6/17
-5.68pts

[Win2Win]

Great result for English sides though . No wonder we win the World Cup so often

[scoobydoo]

English sides like Arsenal.....well English Walcott anyway! I thought it was great when the interviewer was telling a frenchman and a spaniard that they were the first English team to win at AC Milan...:)...technically right but leaves you a bit hollow these days...although it could be said for many sides all over Europe. I guess that re-build will eventually happen now at Milan eh!

[MattR]

I think it will be less and less that the country the side comes from is full of players from that country. It's easy that it's always Arsenal that get knocked for it but in our first choice 11 we have 4 English players (and if Campbell's efforts over the last couple of months continue that will soon be 3)

If you think about it Scooby even Man Utd who you tend to think of as being largely English with the Neville, Scholes, Butt era, now there are what, 2 English players always in the United team (Ferdinand, Rooney) and then perhaps another 1 to 3 depending on the midfield (allowing for the fact that Hargreaves, Scholes and Carrick won't ever all start in the same game and in defence Brown is in and out and on his way in the summer).

[scoobydoo]

Oh I agree with you Matt...its not just Arsenal in any way shape or form although they are nearly the worst example! :)

I did notice that Milan tonight had about 7 Italians playing for them and a few more on the bench

AC Milan: Kalac, Maldini, Kaladze, Nesta, Oddo, Ambrosini, Pirlo, Gattuso, Alexandre Pato, Kaka, Inzaghi (Gilardino 69).
Subs Not Used: Fiori, Emerson, Simic, Favalli, Gourcuff, Bonera.


...not that it did them any good eh!

Campbell seems to be struggling for pace doesnt he? I didnt see the Everton game at the weekend...did you???...was listening to radio and Redknapp said they deserved better but it sounded one way traffic on commentary.

[MattR]

Campbell's been awful of late, stretching back to when Kenwyn Jones ran him ragged up at Sunderland. He seems to be dwelling on the ball when defending and his pace certainly seems to be going. He lost Yakubu for the first goal and got easily beaten by Yakubu again for the third. It was fairly even the first half and when we got back to 1-1 we had a spell either side of half time where I thought we might go on and win it but then Moyes brought on Johnson and Everton went for it and it paid off well for them.

I think he's got another year on his contract as does Kanu (I think he's now past 20 games which triggers it). Kanu can still do it as a sub, he had a cameo of his best Arsenal days last week when he came on against Sunderland, but he can't do it for 90 minutes any more. He's 31 apparently, yeah right!

Oh and sorry for butting in on your thread Mat!

[mathare]

Bit late posting these and I may yet regret even admitting to them...

05/03/08
Chelsea v Olympiacos
Chelsea (-3) corner h'cap @ evens (Stan James) L (4-4) -1pt
0.15pts Draw (+/-3) corner h'cap @ 13/2 (Stan James) L (4-4) -0.15pts
Olympiacos most bookings @ 8/13 (Blue Square) L (3-1) -1pt

Porto v Schalke
Over 10 corners @ 11/10 (Stan James) W (Lots!) +1.1pts
Under 2.5 goals @ 8/15 (Bet365) W (1 goal) +0.53pts

Real Madrid v Roma
Over 2.5 goals @ 3/4 (Bet365) W (3 goals) +0.75pts
Real Madrid (-1) corner h'cap @ 8/11 (Bet365) W (10-4) +0.73pts

[mathare]

Why do the English teams always let me down?

Four out of seven this evening for a profit of 0.96pts

Totals
10/24
-4.72pts