CD Course and Distance

[Win2Win]

Usually the trends I aim for are normally in the wanted price range anyway. If not I have to cross-reference the SR's between the F/c price, SP & Exchange price. Much easier finding win systems. :)

[Matunty]

Boss, Matt and Mathare and others! I am sure that you will know the answer to this basic question. How does a horse become favourite fc for a race, any race! Who decides and by what mechanism?

Thanks

Steve

[Win2Win]

Market forces.

[mathare]

Boss, Matt and Mathare and others! I am sure that you will know the answer to this basic question. How does a horse become favourite fc for a race, any race! Who decides and by what mechanism?

A horse becomes forecast favourite when the odds compiler puts the horse at the head of their market. The horse they expect to go off at the shortest odds (not necessarily who they think will win the race) will be the forecast favourite. They are basing their odds on form, ratings, going etc etc etc. As for who goes off favourite, as Keith says this is all down to money. The bookies will start with a tissue (a good first stab at the market) and will adjust prices as necessary. If they take a lot of money on one horse they will shorten that one (to try and stop people backing it as heavily) and lengthen others (to attract money on them). In the ring the bookies will also react to prices offered by other bookies as well as bets placed with themselves.

There can be any number of forecast favourites (up to the number of runners in the race) depending on who compiled the forecast odds. But the actual favourite (favourites in the case of joint- or co-favs) is decided by SP, which isn't known in advance. So be very careful what you base any system on if you plan to use favs as the actual SP fav may not always be the RP forecast fav, for example.

[Matunty]

Is the odds compiler a real person or a computer programmer. I understand that 'omly' a third of forecast facourites win, or is that sp fav? There must be a difference? Presumably SP favourites win more than fc favs?

[mathare]

Is the odds compiler a real person or a computer programmer.

And that single sentence there ends the help you'd been getting from me.

Computer programmers aren't real people, no? So I waste 40 hours a week at work developing software for the oil industry plus countless hours of my spare time trying to write software to help fellow gamblers. Is that what you're saying? I don't count as a real person?!?

[Win2Win]

I think he meant 'computer progam' Mat :wink

It's a bit of them all, and then market forces correct the mistakes on the track & exchanges.

[mathare]

A computer program is just a human anyway, but faster and not prone to error. It takes a human to create a computer program so the essence of all software is just human thought combined with computing performance.

So it'a completely irrelvant whether it's a man in a dusty office scribbling on the back of a fag packet or a supercomputer crunching numbers really as they are basically one and the same

[Matunty]

Yes I meant a program. At least we got a reaction! I just wondered the complexity of the program being used to produce fc for all the races 7 days a week across the UK. 33% SR, if true is fairly impressive. Alternatively there might be team/s responsible for deciding the inital odds. What did Mathare say 'tissue'. Is this a term or a process. Sorry Mathare, no offence. Better not tell you what I do Monday to Friday otherwise it could all get worse!

Still 'friends' ?

Steve

[Matunty]

Starting to feel sorry I asked! Ne 1 else work for INTEL!!!!

OOPS!

Presumably, its a process of enetring the runners which draw the data from a central database which predicts the rank order and relevant odds. Still impressive and it must have to weight the relevant factors which is what I think is the key to a profitable system.

Steve

[mathare]

Still impressive and it must have to weight the relevant factors

Why must it? Who cares if it is wrong? Forecast odds are just a guess, an educated guess but a guess nonetheless. Like the weather forecast. It's nice if it is right but so what if it is wrong? And like the weather, forecast odds are subject to external forces that the forecaster cannot always predict when the forecast is made. All one may do is forecast based on all the information available at the time and accept that the facts at the time of the event may differ.

[mathare]

Better not tell you what I do Monday to Friday otherwise it could all get worse!

No need Steve, I think I know already. :wink

[Matunty]

Really? If I was that Pychic I wouldn't need to spend night after night developing my system. See below!

[Matunty]

Ok here goes. Honesty being the best policy. The system has been tweked based on advice in thsi thread and elsewhere.

I am going to declare each day and risk the ridicule (a bit like Edison and Noah did!)

No. of bets so far:18 ( usually I bet per day)
% winners/losers: 23.5/76.5
Profit/loss based on an initial bank of £1000 = 1158.30

I will be publishing my results each day until there are 100 (helps with the maths!)

My system has been discussed in detail elsewhere.

Thanks for accepting the apology Mathare !

[Win2Win]

A computer program is just a human anyway, but faster and not prone to error

Now that just does not make sense, for a start both make mistakes, and last time I looked my software wasn't worth having sex with :splapme

[mathare]

Now that just does not make sense, for a start both make mistakes

No. A computer program follows instructions. It cannot make mistakes following them. The programmer may have made mistakes when writing the program but the program itself will execute without error. For example, a human may confuse horses called King Harson and King Harrison whereas a computer program cannot (assuming the developer has been smart enough to add explicit name checks to his code). Once written the program will run and do the same thing every time (unless there is something time-dependent in there, obviously). Humans aren't really capable of doing exactly the same thing timer after time after time.

[Win2Win]

So the software I just wrote with AI is a human then? Even though the data it rewrites as it learns I never put in? It 'evolves' itself without any human direction.

[Win2Win]

Humans aren't really capable of doing exactly the same thing timer after time after time.

But we do.....it's called a heart beat....

[mathare]

But we do.....it's called a heart beat....

Involuntary actions are different though, as you well know.

[mathare]

So the software I just wrote with AI is a human then? Even though the data it rewrites as it learns I never put in? It 'evolves' itself without any human direction.

How does it learn though? It has to be according to some sort of rules you have determined and added into the program. AI models step-by-step problem solving akin to conscious thought whereas humans tend to use experience, instinct and unconscious thought more when problem solving. So your AI software, if started from the same state multiple times is likely to end up at the same point each time, and in doing so go through the same steps, whereas a human is unlikely to do so.

[Win2Win]

Involuntary actions are different though, as you well know.

It's not involuntary though, our motor cortex part of the brain controls it, and we can control that with other parts of our brain, meditation, holding breath, etc :)

How does it learn though?

But it changes the rules as it goes, so no longer looks like what I put in, that is evolution. Humans start with a fixed set of rules when we are born, and evolve depending on our surrounds, we change the program in our brain, same as AI software. So you could say, we are a computer, as the base DNA (software) is known before we are born.

[Matunty]

From racing to the Origin of Species. Interesting but not helpful to finding those elusive winners. My fault though; I started the thread! Let's return to racing! Can anyone explain the well-worn phrase 'well in at the weights'. Wjat exactly does this mean? At what point does a horse become 'well in'. How would you rate weights with other factors/filters? If a horse loses presumably it's weight goes down (by how much? who dcides and how?). If a horse wins presumably, again, the handicapper adds weight BUT not immediately as the commentators refer to the 'handicapper hasn't caught up with (him (the horse)) yet?

Comments welcome

Steve

[Win2Win]

But without genetic material we wouldn't have life......although the bookies seem to manage OK without it

[mathare]

Can anyone explain the well-worn phrase 'well in at the weights'. Wjat exactly does this mean?

If a horse wins it may get a penalty, say 7lb. But the handicapper may want to raise it 12lbs in the ratings so if it runs with that penalty before the handicapper gets a chance to adjust the ratings the horse is 5lb well in.

If a horse loses presumably it's weight goes down (by how much? who dcides and how?)

No necessarily. Horses may be beaten and go up in the weights depending on how they were expected to do and how they actually did. It's up to the handicapper to decide how much a horse's rating/weight goes up or down

[Win2Win]

1st & 2nd go up......3rd usually stays the same........the rest may stay the same, or be slightly reduced.

If a horse goes up a stone, it can lose the next 20 races, and still not be back on the original handicap mark.

[mathare]

Can I make a suggestion Steve? Read something like the Channel 4 Racing Complete A-Z of Horse Racing as I think it will massively help your understanding of the game and provide you with a reference book to help with a lot of your questions.

Amazon don't have it in stock but you can buy it throuhg Amazon marketplace for just over a fiver delivered.

[Matunty]

Will buy the book that you have suggested. Thanks. Good news, my CD system (remember the one bet a day one!), selected Classic Descent. I bet at 9/2. Am I onto something?

I am going to add the system's forecast for tomorrow about 10.30 tonight!

Regards

Steve

[Win2Win]

One winnerith not maketh a millionaireth

[Matunty]

I agree and ....... every journey starts with a single step (in the right direction!).

My CD system predicted that Classic Descent would win .... it was the only et and WON. I had 9/2

Tomorrow's CD selection is Lord Sandicliffe will win the 4.55 at Leicester

No. of bets so far:19 ( usually I bet per day)
% winners/losers: 27.8/72.2
Profit/loss based on an initial bank of £1000 = bank stands at 1275.25 (level stake of 3%)

I will be publishing my results each day until there are 100 (helps with the maths!)

Thanks for reading and contibuting to this thread. All polite criticism and advice welcome as usual.

I will update my records tomorrow

Steve

[Matunty]

Tomorrow's CD selection WAS Lord Sandicliffe (Matunty System 16 points) is now a NR in the 4.55 at Leicester

The alternative CD runner is Whiteoak Lady Chepstow 4.05. (Matunty System 12 points)

No. of bets so far:19 ( usually I bet per day)
% winners/losers: 27.8/72.2
Profit/loss based on an initial bank of £1000 = bank stands at 1275.25 (level stake of 3%)

I will be publishing my results each day until there are 100 (helps with the maths!)

Thanks for reading and contibuting to this thread. All polite criticism and advice welcome as usual.

I will update my records tomorrow

Steve