CD Course and Distance

[MattR]

One winnerith not maketh a millionaireth

If you put £200,000 on that's not strictly true :)

[Matunty]

Just realised that MATHARE and the Boss have sophisticated software which can backtrack a system and test it. Wow! How can I get my system tested? It seems patetly obvious to me that this might save me a hell of a lot of time and money! I could spend a fortune finding out my system is useless and will return losses in te long term when someone can draw from data over a long period and tell me that quickly. I hope Mathare doesn't accuse me of 'expecting someone else to do all the work'. If I had that sort of technology I am sure I would be prepared to help.

Thanks for any help on this.

Steve (Matunty)

[mathare]

Just realised that MATHARE and the Boss have sophisticated software which can backtrack a system and test it. Wow! How can I get my system tested?

Lots of people have such software. RSB or RaceXpert are the main players in the market if I recall correctly. I don't have either of those myself - I have an electronic archive of racecards going back around 12 months and a lot of Excel skills that mean I can test a hell of a lot of systems on that data

[Matunty]

Would you recommend buying into either of these and if so which one? Presumably, there is a way of selecting the fields and preferred weighting and then the system pulls from the database in order to show patterns. Again, this would enable other filters to be removed or added, thus showing increases or decreases in results (and profits) based on historical data over a 2 -3 season period? I could do with something like that! Are you able/prepared to test my system to tell me whether it is worth pursuing?

Thanks

Steve

[Matunty]

There appears to be a RSB free starter pack; is this worth obtaining? Have you got/tried this system? Your opinion counts!

Steve

[TheOldhamWhisper]

The RSB starter pack is worth sending off for - it gives you a good feel for the software and allows you to use it using limited data. The full version can be quite expensive and only really suitable for someone who understands the best way to use the variables to produce the required results.

As many of the Members' systems are based around information extracted from RSB or similar system builders, a lot of the work is already done for you.

[MattR]

Steve, you can test a lot of what your are doing on the Massey site where you got your draw details from. It's not quite as in depth as RSB but it is free and I've made some systems using it. There is another one that is based on regular donations (via paypal) rather than a set fee which I was put on to by Wayne (WB) and that is very good and being improved on all the time. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to post it on here or not though.

[Win2Win]

RSB, Raceform, Raceexpert,Massey....and a number of other.

RSB will cost you a few grand in the first year of use.

[Matunty]

Thanks Matt. Is the Massey tester easy to locate. I will have a look now. Otherwise if you have a mo, I would appreciate the direct link.

Crap weather so may have a few fun ones as well as my main 4.05 Whiteoak Lady . Bet 9/2 with Laddies and then discovered it was 7 -1 on Betfair. Hope it wins (of course!)

Thanks again

Steve

[MattR]

If you have the main draw page, just click the 'home' link at the top.

From there if you scroll down there's various ones. If you click the favourites and thenscroll down to the bottom of that next page you can create a custom report using as many of the variables that are there (you have to tick the odds boxes on favourites for all odds - bit of a pain - if you only click favourite or second favourite etc then it will only test on those). Back on the home page you can also use trainer/jockey and the custom report link on those pages will allow you test systems on a particular jockey, trainer or jockey/trainer combination

[Matunty]

Thanks Matt. It's a bit fussy as you say but an invaluable resource. I have applied for the RSB trial. My horse lost today as did all my so called fun bets (not much fun Im afraid!).

I am working on tomorrow's selection at the moment and will 'declare' first thing tomorrow.

Regards

Steve

[Matunty]

CD previous winner Classic Descent LOST! (came third) I took 9/2 and staked £37.11 which is 3% of current bank.

Tomorrow's (Tuesday 27th May) CD selection is Balakiref in the 4.30 at Leicester. Matunty system has awarded 18 points. Don't bet below 15 points.

No. of bets so far:20 ( usually I bet per day)
% winners (SR) IS 27.8
Profit/loss based on an initial bank of £1000 = bank stands at £1275.25 (level stake of 3%)

I will be publishing my results each day until there are 100
Thanks for reading and contibuting to this thread. All polite criticism and advice welcome as usual.

I will update my records tomorrow

Steve

[Matunty]

My selction for today Tuesday is Balakiref in the last at Leicester. Ladbrokes commentary says that it is 4Lb lighter than when it last won. I have looked at the RP online and it appears to me to be 7Lb higher at 9-4. Am I missing something or is Labrokes just *****!

Steve

[counterfeit]

Steve

I think you have a basic misunderstanding of the weights system which I must say confused me when I started to look at these things.

When it says it is 4lb lower that means it's handicap mark is 4lb lower. The actual weight it carries in the race is dependent on (correct me if I'm wrong everybody) the class of the race.

For example, if the horse's handicap was the minimum weight of 8 stone but it was running in a Group 1 it would have a minimum weight to carry of say, 9 stone 4lb.

I'm not sure I've described that particularly well but I'm sure somebody will clarify it.

[mathare]

Sounds right to me. It runs today off 73 I think it is, so LTO it ran off 77. It had a stinker (11th out of 17 IIRC) so the handicapper saw fit to drop it 4lbs. Although checking it's last race it ran off 75 making it 2lbs lower today. It ran off 77 the race before last.

Anyway, the top weight is set by the conditions of the race, which are published in the RP and known by connections in advance. The handicap range is presumably something like 75 or less for this race so with a rating of 73 Balakiref is top weight so carries 9-4 with other horses getting 1lb per rating unit, so a horse rated 69 will carry 9st. If the race entry conditions were something like 80 or below then this horse could be carrying under 9st but still be running of 4lb lower than a previous race. Rating and weight are related with 1 rating point = 1lb but only in terms of difference from the top weight which is set in the race conditions.

It's hard to explain really but that book I recommended will cover it.

[Street cry]

to judge the weight change look at the official rating expressed as OR on the rp website.

As others have mentioned weight carried is relative to the class of the race, also you should familiarise yourself with horses running out of the handicap as that could cause you problems if you are not aufeit SC

[Matunty]

I feel thick! I really don't undetsand this at all. I WILL buy the recommended book Mathare; I promise. But for now be gentle with me! Where does it show what it is 'running off'? Is this something that I need to calculate? Mathare says "It runs today off 73 I think it is, so LTO it ran off 77. It had a stinker (11th out of 17 IIRC) so the handicapper saw fit to drop it 4lbs. Although checking it's last race it ran off 75 making it 2lbs lower today. It ran off 77 the race before last. WHERE is this information in the RP? See my selctions below!

[Matunty]

27th May LOST: CD selection today was Balakiref in the 4.30 at Leicester. Matunty system awarded 18 points. I Don't bet below 15 points.

Tomorrow's (Wednesday 28th May) CD selection is Caffari Beverley 6.35. Matunty system has awarded 20 points. However, I have not made any allowance for weight as I am confused!!

No. of bets so far:21 (I bet once per day)
% winners (SR) IS 26.3
Profit/loss based on an initial bank of £1000 = bank stands at £1241..54 (level stake of 3%)

I will be publishing my results each day until there are 100
Thanks for reading and contibuting to this thread. All polite criticism and advice welcome as usual.

I will update my records tomorrow

Steve

[Matunty]

In addition, I am really eager to understand the effect of the handicapper in weights as this must play a factor and should be a serious filter, surely? However, since I have clearly misunderstood this aspect and failed to grasp some of the basics I am surfing the web to increase my knowledge. Has anyone got any comments on the following:

I hope this is allowed?

Effect of Weight in Horse Racing
Do you believe that weight is an effective tool for controlling the performance of a horse? Do you think a horse going up 10lbs in the weights has less chance today than last time? Weight is one of the great racing conundrums. How can a few pounds extra on the back of a 1000lb thoroughbred influence its performance?

Weight is used to handicap a horses chance of winning. The more successful the horse, the more weight it carries and the less successful it should be in future races. At the other end poor horses are allowed to carry less weight and should thus better their recent finishing positions.

The handicapper has the task of assigning ratings for every horse that runs at least 3 races. But how accurate are his ratings? Like anyone who compiles weight adjusted ratings the figures are going to be complicated by incorrect going descriptions and different course topologies such as those which favour top weights.

The following tables should shed some light on how much of an effect weight has on a horse. First we will look at the performance of horses carrying more or less weight than their last race, next the performance of the handicapper, and finally the effect on extra weight influences such as overweight, penalties and allowances.

Changes In Weight


all turf runners Win%
108,413 carried more weight, 11,083 won 10.22%
113,231 carried less weight, 9,768 won 8.63%
index 1.19

The above table shows the results of 221,644 runners on the turf since 1993. Horses carrying more weight than their last race won 10.22%. Horses carrying less weight than their last race won 8.63%. This means a horse carrying more weight than last time is 1.19 times more likely to win than one that is carrying less.

Obviously, this is looking at all turf races and does not take into account horses going up or down in class which will have a bearing on the allocated weight.


turf runners in same class Win%
38,120 carried more weight, 3,925 won 10.30%
40,950 carried less weight, 3,630 won 8.86%
index 1.16

The figures are pretty much the same as in all races. Horses carrying more weight than in their last race, which was of the same class, won more than those carrying less.


turf runners handicap today, handicap last time Win%
55,031 carried more weight, 5,474 won 9.95%
57,085 carried less weight, 4,217 won 7.39%
index 1.35

The above table examines handicap races where the last race was a handicap too. Although the strike rates are lower, the index is bigger indicating that a horse that is rising in the weights is progressing in the right direction.


turf runners handicap today, handicap last time same class Win%
20,108 carried more weight, 2,092 won 10.40%
22,380 carried less weight, 1,658 won 7.41%
index 1.40

Weight rise handicappers running in the same class have a big advantage.


turf runners in stakes races Win%
36,323 carried more weight, 4,268 won 11.75%
39,751 carried less weight, 4,665 won 11.74%
index 1.00

Weight change in stakes races has no effect.


turf runners handicap today, stakes last time Win%
10,155 carried more weight, 1,035 won 10.19%
11,093 carried less weight, 1,412 won 12.73%
index 0.80

The above table is the only one where it is an advantage to be carrying less weight.


turf runners handicap today, handicap last time, same going Win%
6,046 carried more weight, 713 won 11.79%
6,710 carried less weight, 511 won 7.62%
index 1.5

In this table we are looking at horses running in handicaps that run on the same going as last time. As higher weighted horses win more on firm ground and less on soft ground we want to be sure that changes in going are not causing spurious results . The weight rise horses have a much bigger advantage when the going is the same.

The Handicapper
The handicapper has a tough task. He has to allocate a rating for every horse that runs. His task is to assign a rating such that all the runners in a handicap will finish in one big dead heat. This has never happened, and probably never will.

The following tables examine his performance over the years and in different race conditions. Each table shows the average winning distance that the winner beat the second placed horse. If the handicapper were to be 100% accurate the figure should be 0 as we would expect to see a dead heat.

We will look at all handicap races run on good ground only. This is to ensure the figures are not influenced by soft or firm ground.


year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
1.7L 1.6L 1.5L 1.3L 1.4L

Over the past 5 years the average winning distance the winner beat the second horse has fallen steadily from 1.7 lengths to 1.4 lengths. This can mean one of two things. Either the quality of horses in this country are getting better, or the handicapper is becoming more accurate. We suspect the later. The handicapper is sure to be utilising the advances in technology which enable him to rate faster and more accurately. Like the world record for the 100m sprint, will the average winning distance ever reach zero?


race class A B C D E F G
1.2L 1.3L 1.4L 1.4L 1.5L 2.0L 2.0L

This table shows the average winning distances for each class of race. As the class lowers the winning distance goes up. This could indicate that it is harder for the handicapper to rate lower quality horses, or that at the best races the competition is better. Some speed rating experts say it is indeed harder to win with their ratings in the higher class races as the difference in speed points is minimal, yet in races such as sellers there is a wide difference in ratings.


race distance Sprints Middle Long
1.3L 1.4L 1.9L

The margin for error is greater in longer distances. Ratings experts use a scale to adjust ratings for different distances, e.g. 5lbs=1 length upto a mile, 5lbs=1.5 lengths a mile to 12f etc., It could be flawed.


horse age 2yo 3yo 4yo 5yo 6yo 7yo+
1.2L 1.6L 1.5L 1.4L 1.5L 1.6L

It is always thought that the handicapper underestimates the rating for 2yo's. The above table shows this is clearly not the case. It is 3yo's where the handicapper has the most trouble trying to get an accurate rating. This could be because many horses don't race at 2. The same applies with older horses. They may not have won for a couple of years and their rating may have plummeted too far.


month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2.0L 1.8L 1.4L 1.4L 1.6L 1.5L 1.4L 1.3L

The early part of the season could be affected by soft going which creates bigger winning margins. But there is no evidence of this at the end of the season when it is as likely to have softer going. What we think is happening here is the all weather effect. Horses that have run just before the start of the season hold an edge over horses that have not run since last season. The situation does not settle down until May. Many punters do not bet until then because they want to wait until the form settles down. The handicapper can't do this he has to rate every race.

Other Weight Influences
Why would a trainer use a jockey that would be overweight? The trainer may be disgruntled when the handicapper raises his horse too steeply but do you see him arguing with the jockey for being a pound or two overweight? We have always suspected that trainers like to run their horses overweight to disguise form. If the horse runs badly his rating should go down. He can then drop in class (and rise in absolute weight) and enjoy the extra pound or two gain from not being overweight.

The following table shows the average distance behind the winner of horses carrying overweight.

overweight 0lbs 1lb 2lbs 3lbs 4lbs 5lbs 6lbs 7lbs 8lbs 9lbs+
11.1L 13.0L 14.9L 15.5L 15.5L 16.0L 16.7L 17.2L 21.2L 21.5L

It is clear the more overweight a jockey is the bigger distance it will lose by.


penalty 0lbs 1-4lbs 5lbs 6lbs 7lbs+
11.3L 9.0L 7.2L 6.1L 5.6L

It sure is an advantage for a trainer to turn out his recent winner quickly before the rating is reassessed. The bigger the penalty the closer the horse is to the winner.


allowance 0lbs 3lbs 4lbs 5lbs 6lbs 7lbs 8lbs 10lbs
11.0L 12.2L 14.8L 11.7L 12.3 12.3L 8.5L 10.3L

Overall apprentices are a bad thing. In standard races the only allowances claimed are 3, 5 and 7lbs. Each of these riders lose a 1.2, 0.7, 1.3 lengths more respectively than a professional.

We are not saying you should avoid apprentices. You need to spot the best races for them, and you need to catch them when they are 'riding the wave'. This is where they have outclassed their allowance band and are close to dropping down a level e.g. from a 5lb to a 3lb claimer.

Note that 4, 6, 8, 10lbs are allowances in Apprentice only races. The apprentices that are claiming 8 and 10lbs (for having only won a few or no races) are good value for their claim.

Summary
We don't wish to go into the fundamentals of speed ratings here. Suffice to say that it is an uphill struggle trying to compile them on British turf courses due to the differences in track layout, directions, speeds etc. Only the all weather offers the best chance of mastering them. What is clear is that increasing weight on a horse is not a disadvantage - it won't slow a horse down, and decreasing a horses weight won't speed it up. Weight risers will mostly beat weight fallers.

The handicapper is becoming more accurate as the years go by. This is going to make it harder for us to win in handicap races. If you listen to some professionals they say never to bet in handicaps.

You should have a closer look at penalty carriers. Don't be put off by the weight rise - the bigger the penalty, the closer the horse will be to winners enclosure. Overweight horses should be avoided but taken note of incase the trainer is using the race to disguise form.

[mathare]

I'll be amazed if anyone takes the time to read through all that, to be honest

[Matunty]

Where does it show what it is 'running off'? Is this something that I need to calculate? Mathare says "It runs today off 73 I think it is, so LTO it ran off 77. It had a stinker (11th out of 17 IIRC) so the handicapper saw fit to drop it 4lbs. Although checking it's last race it ran off 75 making it 2lbs lower today. It ran off 77 the race before last. WHERE is this information in the RP?

[mathare]

Where does it show what it is 'running off'? Is this something that I need to calculate?

It's on the racecard (OR)

[Matunty]

Fine. So when you said ' it's running off of 77' you could have said it has an OR of 77? Correct?

[mathare]

Fine. So when you said ' it's running off of 77' you could have said it has an OR of 77? Correct?

Yes. Or it has a handicap mark/rating of 77. Or squiggleblob weasel ratbag arp eeky eeky NNNaaaaargggh. But that wouldn't have helped you as much

[wb]

There's a fair bit of lingo to grasp when it comes to handicaps Maunty.

A horses OR is also knows as his mark. Phrases you may hear are

He's running off a mark of....
His hanidcap mark is...
His official rating is...
He's running of (number)...

They all mean the same thing.



You may also hear that a horse "is running of a racing post rating of..."

But that's different. The RPR is a private handicap mark not used for official purposes.

[Matunty]

Thanks WB; that clears that up and I am grateful. As for Mathare's comment. No comment!

I am so pleased I had 200 on Just Lille today! Puts my bank in order.

My selections will be posted tomorrow.

Cheers

Steve

[Win2Win]

I am so pleased I had 200 on Just Lille today! Puts my bank in order.

I hope you're talking about pennies, otherwise if it is pounds then you are really stupid doing that with a 'test' system. In fact £2 is too much, should be paper trading only till you have at least 100 live bets to go on.

[Matunty]

Friends

There were four races today where there was a single CD horse. I award points as you know and bet on horses which have 15 or more points. The fours horses had 24, 15, 20, 24: Aromatherapy, Cloone Rocket, Redolent and Intervision. The first 3 mentioned won.

The effeect on the bank is: 1300.68

SR (winning %) is now 30.04%

[wb]

It's great that you're winning Maunty, but why are you testing something out with such large stakes?

If you can afford that kind of money to 'play' with, perhaps you don't need to be trying to crack this game afterall.

[Joseph]

You should definitely paper trade any new system until you feel totally comfortable with it. Nice you had a good win though