overlay

[tophatter]

Im having a very frustrating spell at the moment where every horse i seem to lay at close to or even under SP seems to lose but every horse I overlay on seems to win!

For example over my last 100 lays on the flatlayem system my over overall on all horses is 12.19% - thats pretty good and inside the 15% benchmark that I have as my goal.

However on the horses that have won, which are the ones that the overlay matters on, it is 29.87%

Over that sample i still record a profit but what is very good spell is only producing a modest return due to my overlaying. Maybe, ive just been caught by a couple of gambles? I hope so, and its not a trend because that overlay is not sustainable long term. I must be right in thinking if the larger sample is showing 12% then eventully the smaller sample will get closer to that. I hope so!

[mathare]

I've been on the wrong side of quite a few gambles recently and it's very frustrating. But overall the lays I am following are doing well. It's the backs that are killing me at the minute, especially the short-priced ones

[tophatter]

Medium priced horses do seem to be winning more - although im sure that is not the case.

I seem to be get very few shortpriced winners when laying and more 7/1, 8/1 shots winning. It is probably just coz i notice them when laying as they hurt a bit more.

[mathare]

My stats for the last month on the various lay systems I follow:

Bets: 458
Winners: 61
SR: 13.32% (86.68%)
Profit: £135.54 (I can't be bothered working it out in BB terms I'm afraid)
Total Overlay: 10.50%
Winner Overlay: 13.18%
Loser Overlay: 10.15%

Looks like I'm not doing as badly as I thought on the overlay. That said I have laid runners with an SP of 7/2 at 9.0

[Win2Win]

Medium priced horses do seem to be winning more - although im sure that is not the case.

You're not dreaming, that is the case, and has been for a few months now .....and the markets have had some severe changes in a lot of races within 5 mins before the off. I've been stung for a good number of points on some of them as well. Losing a point on some winners

I usually have Betangel running alongside so I can closely watch the market before betting, but with my Nan passing away I've just been bunging them all on at midday. Back to normal next week.

I'd just concentrate on the overall monthly figures, rather than per race.