Irish Ante-Post Racing Tips: Irish Arkle Chase: Leopardstown, Sunday January 25
The Irish Arkle has not traditionally been a good pointer to the big one at Cheltenham, but that doesn't make it a great race in itself. Let Wayne bailey talk you through the main protagonists in the 2009 running.
We've a relatively small field for this year's Irish Arkle, but that doesn't mean it's going to be easy and the expected heavy going could make this a slog in the mud. As a Cheltenham trial, this race hasn't lived up to its billing - and the only horse in the past decade that came close to doing the Arkle double was Kicking King, when coming second to Well Chief in 2004.
It's not really a race for Cheltenham clues so it's best to just view this contest as a stand-alone event. That said, it's still a very decent contest and layers are expecting good turnover this Sunday. Here's a look at the current entries...
Cooldine
He proved that he can handle the muck when winning his fences debut impressively at Thurles back in November, and a price of around [11.0] would be fair. I've a slight worry that the 2m1f distance will be a bit on the short side and he's a horse that could probably go a bit further. I think he has potential, but is an animal that's best watched on Sunday.
Cuan Na Grai
I remember exactly where I was the last time this horse won back in 2006 - I was at a family wedding and not at the Galway festival as intended! I backed him that day when he won the Galway Hurdle at 7/1, at that win paid for more than a few pints of the black stuff. However, it's fair to see he's gone downhill somewhat since, and he's lost a bit of confidence along the way. It's unlikely that the ground will suit so I'll be very surprised if the eight-year-old can make the frame this weekend. A place lay should be a fairly safe option here should the field size not narrow too much.
Follow The Plan
Ten of the past 12 Irish Arkle winners all had course form under their belt and Follow The Plan must be given huge credit for turning over the [1.70] Paul Nicholls trained Tatenen here at the Christmas festival. Unfortunately for me, Tatenen was one of my bankers that week, so when Follow The Plan beat him by a short head, more than a few expletives were heard loudly ringing around the Dublin venue! Looking back however, it was a great achievement and I'm confident that there are bigger things in store for the six-year-old. The ground won't be a problem and the early prices of around [3.5] look like great value.
Forpadydeplasterer
This horse is owned locally, and every time he runs I get at least half a dozen text messages telling me to back him! I've long given up on such 'tips' and I won't be backing him this Sunday either. OK, four wins from seven races is fantastic and he's been a great servant to Thomas Cooper with the promise of more to come. However, I believe the gelding is out of his depth here and he's looking at the runner-up prize at best.
Golden Silver
Another good French import for Mullins, this horse won a beginners' chase at Navan back in December and his trainer is happy with how well the horse can jump. But being realistic, he's quite a few pounds below his rivals here and if he runs, a price of roughly [30.0] would be about right.
Jayo
He's likely to go off as favourite, but early quotes of [2.75] are simply too short and I'm keen to take him on at that price. He beat Made In Taipan effortlessly last time out and has very solid claims for this race - but if this ends up being a match with Follow The Plan, I think he may struggle. I'm not suggesting this horse is in any way poor and I've a huge amount of respect for the six-year-old - but from a value point of view, it's worth looking elsewhere. One prominent on-course layer told me that he's very keen to get this one in the satchel.
Raysrock
The only non-Irish trained horse is the rank outsider and while he has a couple of hurdle wins under the belt at Hexham and Kelso, an ante-post price of [100.0] would probably be about right at this stage.
Conclusion
On paper, this looks like a three horse race between Follow The Plan, Jayo and Forpadydeplasterer. Jayo's price is on the short side, while Forpadydeplasterer may find himself out of his depth. Follow The Plan therefore, is the selection this Sunday and any price of [3.5] or higher would be very reasonable indeed.
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Originally Posted by Win2WinRSS
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