Handicap Chases

[grantcharman]

OK, I've been away from horses for a couple of years, but back into it now. I've been thinking about handicap chases in particular and have started to put together a method for selecting potential winners (or place?). Thought I'd try posting the selections so that everyone can laugh at my ineptitude

Anyone who follows these must need their head looking at :)

So here goes with todays picks:

3.15 Market Rasen - Cardington @ 8.2
3.45 Market Rasen - no selection
5.15 Market Rasen - no selection

3.25 Kelso - Super Baby @ 3.95
4.25 Kelso - Wild Cane Ridge @ 3.55

3.35 Warwick - Nelson @ 2.9
4.35 Warwick - Keenans Future @ 3.9

Wish me luck! Will update later hopefully.

[bigcumba]

Thought I'd try posting the selections so that everyone can laugh at my ineptitude

Anyone who follows these must need their head looking at :)

That'll be Vegy's job as he's top of the ineptitude class anyway! :wink Good luck with them

[bryn]

Good luck Grant

[neilb7]

Good luck, any reason you have been away for a couple of years?

[grantcharman]

I was in a job that just did not give me time to sort out selections and get bets on. Previously I had my own office so no-one knew what I was doing...and now I work from home

So nothing exciting

[neilb7]

ok, just wondering as you joined at a similar time to me and i have been on and off for a couple of years, but back to stay now.

Good luck

[grantcharman]

Just realised this would be better put under the £1000 mythical challenge section - oops

I'll restart in there.

[bigcumba]

give us a minute and I'll move this for you Grant - you might want to sort out staking for them though!

[grantcharman]

Forgot to say earlier, all staking (to start anyway) is 3% of bank, set on daily basis. All bets assumed to be Betfair or BetDAQ whichever has the best prices at the time. Won't take less than 3.25 odds and will void any that I can't get that price.

Market Rasen 3.15 Cardington @ 8.0 lost
Kelso 3.25 Super Baby @ 4.3 lost
Warwick 3.35 Nelson @ 3.4 won
Kelso 4.25 Wild Cane Ridge @ 3.5 withdrawn not under orders
Warwick 4.35 Keenans Future @ 3.5 won

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £ 79.65
New bank £1080
Next stake £32

Happy with that as a starting day. Have lost faith in Super Baby as let me down twice in the last couple of weeks.

Tomorrows selections (9/3/09):

2.30 Plumpton Tacinja
3.30 Plumpton Russian Flag
3.40 Stratford College Ace
4.30 Plumpton Man of the Moment
4.50 Taunton Cusp

Grant

[grantcharman]

9th March
2.30 Plumpton Tacinja NR
3.30 Plumpton Russian Flag matched at 5.8 Won
3.40 Stratford College Ace matched at 11.0 Won
4.30 Plumpton Man of the Moment matched at 6.4 6th
4.50 Taunton Cusp matched at 4.8 PU

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £ 391
New bank £1470
Next stake £44
Bank high £1535
Bank low £940
SR% 4/8 = 50%

Selections for 10 March:

2.40 Cheltenham Star de Mohaison
4.00 Cheltenham Garde Champetre
4.15 Sedgefield Cybora (but very tempted by Tarabaloo, will watch the market and might not bet in this race as they both hit all my rules)

[neilb7]

Great results
good luck for the next few days

[grantcharman]

10th March Results
2.40 Cheltenham Star de Mohaison NR
4.00 Cheltenham Garde Champetre matched @ 5.0 Won
4.15 Sedgefield Cybora matched at 4.5 third
(should have listened to my own caution about this race being too tight)

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £ 124
New bank £1594
Next stake £48
Bank high £1637
Bank low £940
SR% 5/10 = 50%

11th March selection
2.55 Huntingdon Autumn Red

[grantcharman]

11th March result
2.55 Huntingdon Autumn Red matched @ 5.2 Unseated Rider

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) - £48
New bank £1545
Next stake £46
Bank high £1637
Bank low £940
SR% 5/11 = 45%

12th March selections
1.30 Cheltenham Kia Kaha
3.35 Hexham Capybara
4.00 Cheltenham Perce Rock
4.55 Hexham Mistral de la Cour

[grantcharman]

12th March results

1.30 Cheltenham Kia Kaha matched @ 8.6 10th
3.35 Hexham Capybara matched @ 6.6 2nd
4.00 Cheltenham Perce Rock matched @ 9.8 brought down
4.55 Hexham Mistral de la Cour matched @ 8.2 3rd

Perhaps I should be going each way!

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) - £186
New bank £1360
Next stake £46
Bank high £1637
Bank low £940
SR% 5/15 = 33%

13th March selections

3.35 Fakenham I'moncloudnine (but likely to be very short price and I cont take if below 3.25)
5.15 Cheltenham Poquelin

[grantcharman]

13th March results
3.35 Fakenham I'moncloudnine matched @ 5.0 won
5.15 Cheltenham Poquelin matched @4.6 3rd

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £114
New bank £1474
Next stake £44
Bank high £1637
Bank low £940
SR% 6/16 = 38%

14th March selections

2.05 Uttoxeter Just Smudge
2.55 Wetherby Just for Men
3.20 Newcastle It's Bertie
4.20 Newcastle Wizards Dust
4.45 Uttoxeter Chigorin

[grantcharman]

Well Saturday was crap

14th March results

2.05 Uttoxeter Just Smudge matched at 3.8 5th
2.55 Wetherby Just for Men non runner
3.20 Newcastle It's Bertie matched at 3.9 2nd
4.20 Newcastle Wizards Dust matched at 7.2 4th
4.45 Uttoxeter Chigorin matched at 9.6 5th

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) - £177
New bank £1297
Next stake £39
Bank high £1637
Bank low £940
SR% 6/20 = 30%

15th March selections
1.40 Southwell Ross Leader
2.10 Southwell Victor Daly
2.30 Carlisle Norminster
3.35 Carlisle Minster Abbi
4.00 Fontwell Peut Etre Sivola
4.10 Carlisle Banoge

[vegyjones]

Despite the terrible Saturday, you may get an audience if things carry on as they have been going.

If only I could manage your level of ineptitude.

Still bottom of the class for me then

[grantcharman]

Thanks Vegy, I guess I can't complain today :)

15th March
1.40 Southwell Ross Leader matched @ 6.2 won
2.10 Southwell Victor Daly matched @ 5.3 won
2.30 Carlisle Norminster matched @ 3.0 won
3.35 Carlisle Minster Abbi matched @ 5.1 3rd
4.00 Fontwell Peut Etre Sivola matched @ 6.62 2nd
4.10 Carlisle Banoge matched @ 8.8 6th

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £ 309
New bank £1606
Next stake £48
Bank high £1723
Bank low £940
SR% 9/26 = 35%

16 March selections

2.10 Hereford Phoenix Eye
3.40 Hereford Chiaro
4.50 Taunton Royal Hector

[grantcharman]

Another good day overall

16 March results

2.10 Hereford Phoenix Eye matched @ 10.0 7th
3.40 Hereford Chiaro matched at 7.9 won
4.50 Taunton Royal Hector matched at 13.0 7th

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £ 220
New bank £1826
Next stake £55
Bank high £1874
Bank low £940
SR% 10/29 = 34%

17th March selections
2.30 Kempton Shake the Barley
3.50 Exeter Royal Hilarity
5.15 Wexford Monte Cinto

[grantcharman]

17th March results
2.30 Kempton Shake the Barley matched @ 8.0 3rd
3.50 Exeter Royal Hilarity matched @ 13.0 4th
5.15 Wexford Monte Cinto matched @ 3.6 won

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £ 26
New bank £1852
Next stake £56
Bank high £1874
Bank low £940
SR% 11/32 = 34%

18th March selections
3.50 Chepstow Rash Moment
4.00 Warwick Woodlands Genpower

[grantcharman]

18th March results
3.50 Chepstow Rash Moment matched @ 4.2 won
(never had a moments doubt about this one...not even when he was third at two fences out...and I didn't swear at him, at all, nope not once McCoy is a master!)
4.00 Warwick Woodlands Genpower matched at 7.8 5th

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £ 113
New bank £1965
Next stake £59
Bank high £2020
Bank low £940
SR% 12/34 = 35%

19th March selections

2.20 Ayr Something Silver
3.35 Ludlow Dream Falcon
5.00 Ayr Cantgeton
5.05 Clonmel The Cub Wood

[grantcharman]

19th March selections
Train wreck of a day all round for me, systems methods and spilt coffee on my desk so no surprise that this lot came up blank

2.20 Ayr Something Silver matched @ 2.5 2nd (broke my own rule and took a price under 3.25:splapme)
3.35 Ludlow Dream Falcon matched @ 13.5 4th
5.00 Ayr Cantgeton matched @ 3.2 2nd
5.05 Clonmel The Cub Wood matched @ 7.4 5th

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) - £ 235
New bank £1729
Next stake £52
Bank high £2020
Bank low £940
SR% 12/38 = 32%

20th March selections
3.15 Newbury Picts Hill
3.45 Gowran Park Rock Street
4.00 Kelso Daldini
4.35 Kelso King Barry

[mathare]

That's two under 3.25 today and one back on the 15th too. Not getting sloppy with your prices are you?

[grantcharman]

Oops. Must be. Must watch that or the winners wont be worth having

Thanks mathare!

[grantcharman]

20th March results
3.15 Newbury Picts Hill matched @ 7.6 won
3.45 Gowran Park Rock Street matched @ 5.7 3rd
4.00 Kelso Daldini non runner
4.35 Kelso King Barry matched @ 3.71 3rd

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £ 221
New bank £1950
Next stake £59
Bank high £2054
Bank low £940
SR% 13/41 = 32%

21st March selections
2.10 Haydock Adare Prince
2.20 Newbury Theatre Dance
3.15 Haydock Saunders Road
3.55 Bangor Camden George
4.35 Stratford Jackella
4.40 Newbury Russian Flag
4.45 Gowran Park Prince Massini
5.05 Bangor First Boy

[grantcharman]

21st March results
2.10 Haydock Adare Prince matched @ 6.0 6th
2.20 Newbury Theatre Dance matched @ 6.0 4th
3.15 Haydock Saunders Road matched @ 4.8 pulled up
3.55 Bangor Camden George non runner
4.35 Stratford Jackella matched @ 8.5 won what a ride to win despite losing his irons before the last fence
4.40 Newbury Russian Flag matched @ 4.6 2nd
4.45 Gowran Park Prince Massini matched @ 7.1 11th (horrible ride)
5.05 Bangor First Boy matched @ 4.31 won

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £ 308
New bank £2259
Next stake £68
Bank high £2259
Bank low £940
SR% 15/48 = 31%

22nd March selections
2.50 Wincanton Travelling Fox
3.20 Wincanton Present Glory
4.30 Wincanton Ice Bucket
4.40 Huntingdon General Ledger

[grantcharman]

22nd March results
2.50 Wincanton Travelling Fox matched @ 9.9 6th
3.20 Wincanton Present Glory matched @ 5.9 won
4.30 Wincanton Ice Bucket matched @ 3.5 2nd
4.40 Huntingdon General Ledger matched @ 5.4 6th

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) + £ 112
New bank £2371
Next stake £71
Bank high £2507
Bank low £940
SR% 16/52 = 31%

I'm really fearing the losing run that must be coming!

23rd March selections

3.40 Plumpton Strident
3.50 Kempton Lord Jay Jay
5.00 Kempton Syncopated Rhythm
5.20 Plumpton Amoreigh

[grantcharman]

Here comes that losing run!

23rd March results

3.40 Plumpton Strident matched @ 9.7 7th
3.50 Kempton Lord Jay Jay matched @ 8.4 5th
5.00 Kempton Syncopated Rhythm matched @ 5.7 4th
5.20 Plumpton Amoreigh matched @ 5.8 pulled up

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) - £ 285
New bank £2087
Next stake £63
Bank high £2507
Bank low £940
SR% 16/56 = 29%

24th March selections
I don't greatly like the look of Tuesdays racing, but the two chasers that I thought would be worth a speculative punt on, basically to oppose favourites that look like being too short, are:

2.10 Southwell Tarabaloo
4.00 Sedgefield Pistol Basc

[grantcharman]

Another blank day, but I didn't like the look of racing yesterday - I think I need to be more selective on days like this.

24th March results
2.10 Southwell Tarabaloo matched @ 13.0 2nd (ran well enough but Peter Pole looks very useful)
4.00 Sedgefield Pistol Basc matched @ 12.0 3rd

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) - £ 125
New bank £1961
Next stake £59
Bank high £2507
Bank low £940
SR% 16/58 = 28%

25th March selection
Another dodgy day for chasing as far as I can see...I'm certainly not going to oppose Peter Pole again in the race at Taunton. The Towcester chases are littered with untrustworthy jumpers so finding anything worthwhile is difficult. I do think it's worth opposing Johns Square (despite McCoy) as his jumping is so suspect...of the other runners I couldn't trust most of them, but Tomillielou at least seems to have solid jumping and reasonable place form over recent starts so:

2.40 Towcester Tomillielou

Hopefully break the losing run

[grantcharman]

25th March result
2.40 Towcester Tomillielou matched @ 12.0 7th

Starting bank £1000
Daily profit/loss (after commission) - £ 59
New bank £1903
Next stake £57
Bank high £2507
Bank low £940
SR% 16/59 = 27%

26th March selections
Looks a much better days racing, so confident of breaking the run
2.25 Carlisle Cornerback
3.20 Towcester Spirit of Man
4.10 Carlisle Marleybow
4.20 Hereford Battlefield
4.45 Carlisle Nelliedonethat
5.20 Carlisle Norminster
5.30 Thurles Templers Hall