I've been working on a few sports betting ideas and this current one I've got is about picking correct scores in games. It picks a lot of long shots and because of this it has a very low strike rate but after just a random sample of just over 50 games it shows a very good profit at flat stakes.
This got me to thinking about how to maximise profit from this system. So does anyone have any good ideas for staking plans for sports betting? In particular for low strike rates...the idea of having a % of the bank (like the ones recommended for horse racing systems) seems flawed as there could be 10+ matches at the same day and with the very low strike rate they could all quite possibly lose, meaning the bet next time is significantly reduced.
I haven't started looking at options yet but just curious if anyone has ideas. The stats for the system are:
53 matches
4 wins (7.55%)
$10 Flat stake = +$2472
ROI = 466.43%
The odds of the 4 winners have been... 60, 36, 9.8 and 210. So the point I guess is that if you erase that last one then the profit is much less, so I'm looking for a staking plan that hangs in there for the long haul (which could be very long) but has good bets to take advantage of those prices.
Personally I dont think this is feasible and its just been lucky but I guess we'll see :D