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Thread: Tri a forecast thingymajig?

  1. #1

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    Tri a forecast thingymajig?

    First off, this is an experiment but it has slowly been dawning on me (ie. by the results) that perhaps, this is what I should be doing, it's a long story but more on that later....

    Right, we gotta grand, yeh!

    Each race we'll invest 3% of our bank, £30 Yeh!

    We're going to divide that into 12 Unit Stakes, so..

    I won't normally be using middle-distance races but this 12f @ Brighton is a specialist CD so, we make an exception but anyway...

    4.00 Brighton

    1 - Soundbyte
    2 - Step This Way
    3 - Halfway House

    So, we got 6 forecasts & 6 tricasts @ £2.50 a unit = £30

    Like I said, this is an experiment, in as much with the stake plan as anything. I got a feeling that the shortest paying forecast at odds I can find here may not pay for the stake & now there are three non-runners, it may just have killed this race as workable but I need to get this off the ground, so we'll let it go just this once.



  2. #2

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    What are you using to settle the bets?



  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by mathare View Post
    What are you using to settle the bets?
    An abacus? :D

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  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by mathare View Post
    What are you using to settle the bets?
    None too sure what you mean Matthare – at present I’m restricted to taking a price with Bet365 at home but sometimes I may venture down Ladbrokes (I want to take them up on the 123 Correct Order bonus) but otherwise & most probably, it will be a multiplication of the standard result, like so:
    1m4f, Class 4, £12,384.00

    1 Eton Fable 22/1
    2 Halfway House 2/1F
    3 Step This Way 7/1

    CSF £66.83
    TRICAST £366.29 From the Racing Post results!

    Is that what you mean?

    What a nightmare for me that race. I made one little but very expensive decision – I had four horses, 4lb between top & bottom rated but because I was under the impression that Brighton 12f was a specialist CD (I been reading this book, dangerous things!) I turfed out the top-rated and eventual winner, Eton Fable and put in the 4th rated, dual CD winning Soundbyte (& what a stinker he ran), like I said, there was only 4lb in it and I have benefited from making similar decisions previously but not this time.
    After the whole 3 day meeting though I’ve concluded that CD has no relevance but Brighton is a good place to operate.

    I have spent ages today trying to use the 5.10 at Redcar but decided there wouldn’t be much point, I haven’t enough data to go on to be confident of anything & too many qualifiers to sift between.

    I’ll be darn glad when September comes & the evening meetings stop, so that I’ll have time to concentrate on individual races in more detail – in the meantime I’ll just be finding qualifiers & banging the results into the spreadsheet & determine the best places to have a bet.



  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    Is that what you mean?
    Yes. I didn't know if you'd be using Exacta/CSF dividends



  6. #6

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    Same stake for now:

    Sand 3.25

    Prime Exhibit
    Film Set(USA)
    Lindoro

    & while putting bet on just noticed Maxwil (poor draw but has ran well fresh before & stable got 50% place record at course) is 50/1, might have a little EW saver on that.



  7. #7

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    Down to 940 with this -

    I gave up previously reasoning we'd be better off just dutching them all but we're coming back with a variation - forget the tri-casts, we'll just concentrate on 6 RFC so at 5pts each combination:-

    Ayr 4.00

    Whaston
    Teenage Idol
    Rafta



  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    Down to 940 with this -

    I gave up previously reasoning we'd be better off just dutching them all, we'll just concentrate on 6 RFC so at 5pts each combination:-

    Ayr 4.00

    Whaston
    Teenage Idol
    Rafta
    Pardon me while I swear loudly

    As Teenage Idol wins, the others nowhere and vindicates what we already knew.

    Maybe I should incorporate single win bets too to minimise losses?

    Basically, what I have learned this month is that my top-three-rated staked as above in just the Joint Effort races would have been profitable & it just happened again in the 2.05 at Wolves for a £170 FC, so I'll be looking further into this method



  9. #9

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    Down to 910

    None too confident but I'm going to just let this ride for a while - so same 6x 5pt RFC's

    3.50 Taunton

    Tenor Nivernais
    King's Revenge
    Karky Schultz



  10. #10

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    Another winner & no second

    Never mind - i quite happy to let this sink to 500 before I call on Plan B

    1.20 Newcastle

    Shadow Boxer
    Manoubi
    Stagecoach Opal

    Same 6 x 5 RFC



  11. #11

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    Maybe you also need to do research on the top 4/5/6 in combination.

    FREE Live Odds Comparison Software

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    Managing Director, Win2Win Limited



    Filipino UK Filipino Forum | Win2Win Racing - Free Tips


  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Win2Win View Post
    Maybe you also need to do research on the top 4/5/6 in combination.
    I'll take that on board -

    Down to 880 -

    We're going to stay with for the time-being - so it's 6 x 5 RFC's

    South AW 4.00 (0-60)
    Lithaam
    Dispol Grand
    Shawkantango

    Actually, the above race might be a good one to choose more as there are about 5 or 6 vying for tops and

    Just as an example, this would be a good race to try 4 as they are clear too:

    3.50 Winc C (0-115) QM 122 – [CLD BE TRI-CAST RACE?] RATING
    Sir Winston 132
    Wizard Of Edge 131
    Rebel Melody 127
    Reblis 125



  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Win2Win View Post
    Maybe you also need to do research on the top 4/5/6 in combination.
    More research - time? - scarey just looking at the last months results from Lingfield AW - even today, first race I only had 3 with ratings but they produced the FC. Think we could branch out from h'caps into mdn's & claimers by the look of it & even 5 & 6 runner races yield positive looking results.

    I don't want to go much further than 4 in a race - it all gets too complicated - yesterday at Clonmel, there was only one h'cap & I had 4 clear of the rest which produced the first two for a £150 return for £12.

    Worth looking into?

    That was a hurdle, as are most Joint Effort races but it works better in h'cap chases!



  14. #14

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    Down to 850 -

    We're going to try 4 today, so that's 12 x 2.50 RFC's

    Sandown 4.40 H NOV (0-125) (18 RUN)

    Representingceltic
    Marleno
    Hong Kong Harry
    Wyck Hill



  15. #15

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    Down to 820 -

    We're going to try 4 today, so that's 12 x 2.50 RFC's

    Selection
    Barneys Honour
    Ferry Point
    Take A Stroll
    Brookville

    Combination Forecast

    Event
    Navan
    4.20



  16. #16

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    Down to 790

    4.20 Catt

    Calatagan
    Carrietau
    Columbus Secret

    6 X 5 CSF's



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