W2W systems performance...

[crazybadger]

Is it just me or are a lot of the W2W systems gone a little sour recently? I ran them for a couple of months last year and they were great. I then had to have some time off but I've been back and running them for over 4 months now and here is how they currently sit with me:

Running4Profit
Lost about half the bank. Graph is a steady downward trend for the last 3 months.

Flat Layem
50% bank growth. Was at around 90% growth but a few big losses over last week has evened it out. Looks like a great system.

6+Loser
Not doing too bad. Currently just under starting bank but a bit of a downward trend over past 2 months from a nice early high.

LTO3
Lost over 1/2 the bank. Kind of jerky up and down for 1-2 months and then sharp drop.

Johnston
Few big spikes but has currently lost 1/2 bank

Stoute
Not a great number of selections but has distinct downward trend. Lost 2/5th of bank.

CD Lay
Just under break-even. Peaked at 22% bank growth 2 weeks ago but has dropped with a poor week or so. Fingers crossed it corrects itself as it seemed to have a nice steady growth

Jumping4Profit
Good growth so far (about 1/3). Not enough selections to be completely confident but looking good.

Claiming Jockey
Is positive but bugger all selections so far to be sure of results.

First Timer
About break-even. Same as above with number of selections.

Trainer 3
Positive bank growth (1/3 growth). Little decline recently but probably statistical correction.

Nine or Less
Little loss but not enough selections to judge.

Ladies Lay
15% drop in betting bank. Not enough to selections to judge though.

Profit Machine
Slightly positive. Looks ok.

Odds On
Looked terrible early on. Consistent drop in bank. Was a bout to scrap it when I read somewhere that Kieth was/had reworked it so I stuck with it. The graph did flatten out around that time and has shown a little upward trend in past 1-2 weeks. Still very much in the negative but heading in the right direction.

[mathare]

Interesting thoughts CB. I may as well add my own...

• Running For Profit - I stopped following this one earlier in the year after it hit a long losing run that saw it drop way below it's bank barrier and never recover
• Flat Lay'em - a great laying system that has been suffering a little of late admittedly but stick with it as it's a gem when using a solid staking plan. I have been following this for over 2800 bets and the lowest my bank has ever been is 90% of it's starting value
• 6+ Loser - I am undecided on this one. It's in a bit of a bad run at present and 118 bets in I have yet to see the bank really take off. From a £200 start bank my high is just under £250 and my low is £140
• LTO3 - I've been with this one for a couple of years and it's showing a slight loss in that time due to a rough 2009. My bank high of 150% of starting bank came back in September 2007
• Mark Johnston - a low SR but high price system that is another bad run. My £200 starting bank stands at £1200 but was been nearly double that at the start of August. When it's hot it's brilliant and the cash flows into the bank but it has long losing runs too. I have recorded a losing streak of 29 and my longest this year has been 25. The SR is around 15%.
• Michael Stoute - I'm slightly up on this one this year but not much, only a point or two. Overall my bank is up around 80% though since I started. This is still a long way behind the peak achieved in May '08 though when my bank was up by 210%
• CD Lays - A slight loss this year but this is in profit overall. My bank has never dipped much below the starting point and peaked in June this year but is now down around £100 since that point (around 18pts)
• Jumping For Profit - I dropped this one recently too after a lengthy period under a bank barrier. My bank peaked in March this year and dropped steadily from that point
• Claiming Jockey - very early days for me too but I am showing a slight profit
• First Timer - Early days with just 11 bets recorded but a very nice profit from this one
• Trainer 3 - I only have 110 bets on this one but my bank hit a new high earlier this month, although it has slipped back somewhat recently. A good SR and excellent ROI though, I really like this system and am considering boosting my bank for it
• Nine Or Less - This is on my shortlist to be dropped from my portfolio as I have never got the bank up more than 10% (and that was back in Feb '07). It's having a rough year and is now well below the bank barrier level and showing few signs of recovery
• Ladies Lays - Down quite a chunk this year but well up overall. I have every confidence in this system even though it produces few qualifiers
• NH Profit Machine - my best laying system by a long way. Year on year profits with a great ROI. I love this system and just wish it produced more selections
• Odds On - never followed it myself so no comment

[Street cry]

Is flat lay em an ebook system or a members system Mat

[mathare]

Is flat lay em an ebook system or a members system Mat

It's an eBook. I think they are all eBook systems

[Street cry]

Where do i get it actually maybe i already have cant remember now ha ha ha ha

[Win2Win]

You already have:
Flat Running For Profit
NH Jumping For Profit System
NH Quickfire System eBook

[Street cry]

Is it in the quickfire ? i put all my racing stuff on to a cd and can't find it ?

[ginty]

Am also running the eBooks with little success since 18/5/2009. I know the time period is not enough to go on but overall I'm negative (-400 units) so am looking to cull where I can..

Ordered by PL:

Name                Units
---------------------------
Flat Layem           533.56
NH ProfitMachine     172.55
NH Claiming Jockey   169.05
NH Trainer 3         167.33
NH Jumping4Profit     52.99
NH First Timer        22.93
Flat 6+Loser        - 31.75
Flat CD Lay         - 54.73
NH Nine or Less     - 71.45
NH Ladies Lay       -150.59
Odds On             -214.69
Flat Stoute         -216.96
Flat Running4Profit -234.56
Flat Johnston       -269.70
Flat LTO3           -297.50
(NB. PL is based on 3% Back, 1% Lay (& 2% where advised) Staking Plans.)

Systems with a steady downward trend:
- Stoute
- LTO3
- Running For Profit
- Odds On was looking terrible until recently...

I followed things closely last year when I first purchased the eBooks - manually obtaining selections and placing bets. Had considerable success - Johnston was on fire towards the end of last year! I have since automated the entire process (web scraping form data and using the Betfair API) so its a flick of a bit in a database to set some systems back to Test Mode and monitor them for a while. Hard decision whether to ride out the storm or cut my losses on the poor performers.

Few questions actually...

1. What about trading out on selections from the poor performing systems? i.e. Change the objective for those systems to 'bet and then attempt to trade out'. That way, if you can't obtain a trade, at least you've bet on a Runner that you would have bet on anyway. The current expected performance would be skewed as you would be 'losing' a selection that may have actually won.. but if the system is a poor performer and you're looking to cull it, is it an option worth exploring? My thinking is that you can guarantee a +ve result with a trade... and worse case, you take a punt on a system that may surprise you. Interested to hear your thoughts on the concept.
   
2. Is there much of a difference between Racing Post Forecast Price and Betfair Forecast Price? This discussion has already been done to death but, back when RP 'awesomed' up its site I chose to continue to scrape it for the FC price but move all my other scraping to Timeform. Whilst I have never used it, I believe AutoSys now uses Timeform FC price. As I capture this data anyways, (probably a question for Mathare / Keith) what are your views on making the switch - did it improve any of the above systems performances?

[crazybadger]

I notice that the PDFs for the Flat systems are no longer on the sale page...interesting. Is that because they've gone bad and don't work anymore or is it just an accident? Are they under review?

Am also running the eBooks with little success since 18/5/2009. I know the time period is not enough to go on but overall I'm negative (-400 units) so am looking to cull where I can.

400 units?! Thats heaps...how much is a unit for you? It looks like pretty much the same systems are going bad for you.

[vegyjones]

That Stoute system used to be excellent from what I can remember.

Is the current downturn in this system because he is not the force he once was in the game?

[ginty]

400 units?! Thats heaps...how much is a unit for you? It looks like pretty much the same systems are going bad for you.

I'd rather not disclose that if thats cool.. but yes, it is hurting.
Thankfully these systems are just a few in my portfolio and they are yet to really impact the overall bank. As an Aussie my focus is on Australian Racing. Whilst there ain't much money in the markets it is where most of my investments lie.. and the systems I have for AU are performing well.

[crazybadger]

That Stoute system used to be excellent from what I can remember.

Is the current downturn in this system because he is not the force he once was in the game?

Maybe...maybe something has happened with the Flats in general? Because looking over my stats again if I group by race type than the Flat Back systems (4 from quickfire and Running4Profit) ihas been a massive loss (about 2 full betting banks worth) and the rest are positive or just under break-even.

[Win2Win]

I notice that the PDFs for the Flat systems are no longer on the sale page...interesting. Is that because they've gone bad and don't work anymore or is it just an accident? Are they under review? .

I always take them offline when I'm reviewing them but have been overtaken by the demise of RSB which has caused a major upheaval with all my software, plus major health issues.

[crazybadger]

Ah ok that makes sense...so is this just a bad run and I should stick with it?

I was tempted to give a few the flick but then I'm not far from my bank barrier anyway so I cant lose that much more.