mick 56 bets

[mick56]

27/4 both sel lost -£50

bank = £468.25

[barrelmaniac]

Don't get disheartened Mick, these losing streaks happen to everyone occasionally. No-one can win them all, and so losing streaks are just part of the game through chances and probabilities. It doesn't mean that you might be doing things wrong, method bets are also down to a certain amount of luck (which it appears you have been lacking lately) as are system bets, and as long as there are no long term change in trends luck should average out in the end

[mick56]

Thanks BM your above ,good advice and much appreciated.Its certainly a testing period,but i do belive i will sort it,unfortunately its taking longer than i anticipated.

[bryn]

Hi Mick
Are you placing real money on these selections or is it only mythical? You might be placing too much percentage of your bank on these selections. Had you be doing 2% to 3% of your bank things would not be looking so bad, and on the other hand if they would have been successful your bets would be bigger in sinc with the size of your bank. Keep your head up mate we all experience loosing runs.

[mick56]

Hi bryn,yes these are the only bets i have,my own stake is a level £400 on each,even now YTD i am only 2pts down so it is not a disaster.I work from 100pts bank,but with regards the challenge i did not allow myself enough chances at the start, lesson learnt there.
But to be fair to myself i had not experianced a run like this for many years,and that is yet another lesson to be taken on board.These results are now begining to niggle away at my confidence,and if they continue i think i will take a break and just paper proof for a while,or reduce my stake, but hopefully it will not come to that.
I have made a lot of money from the past few years,but it has been via the same approach and that is the factor that is of most concern.I am a great beliver that in racing you learn from your mistakes,but at present i cannot see the mistakes.

[mick56]

28/4 Pont 4.40 Beat the rush

stake £25

[barrelmaniac]

Hi bryn,yes these are the only bets i have,my own stake is a level £400 on each,even now YTD i am only 2pts down so it is not a disaster.I work from 100pts bank,but with regards the challenge i did not allow myself enough chances at the start, lesson learnt there.
But to be fair to myself i had not experianced a run like this for many years,and that is yet another lesson to be taken on board.These results are now begining to niggle away at my confidence,and if they continue i think i will take a break and just paper proof for a while,or reduce my stake, but hopefully it will not come to that.
I have made a lot of money from the past few years,but it has been via the same approach and that is the factor that is of most concern.I am a great beliver that in racing you learn from your mistakes,but at present i cannot see the mistakes.

£400 is quite a lot to stake with relatively few selections in the way that it doesnt leave much of a safety net in the event of long losing runs, but its obviously worked for you in the past, but it might be time to think a bit more conservatively on staking????? But of course its completely dependent on what kind of figures that you are comfortable with.

* of course its dependent on strike rate ROI and all that too, but being comfortable with what you are doing is the main thing

[mick56]

Hi BM,this is my first year on £400 unit and i am comfortable with this size of wager.I started several years ago with a 2k bank and £50 unit and have gradually been able to reinvest from profits accrued.
I have often wished that i could achieve turnover via more bets and a lower stake,but for me this is not something i feel comfortable with.
My way of looking at capital deployment is to attempt max gain with min risk to starting bank,on an annual basis.This has worked very well for me in the past,in fact still is because dispite this abysmal run i am only 2pts down ytd,so 98% of my starting bank is still secure.
Basically during the past 5 months i have had to bite the bullet in ways which i did not really anticipate,but staking wise did allow for.As i posted yesturday i will probably give it another month,if things do not improve i will then consider reducing stake by 50% or stopping completely and just paper proofing for a couple of months.
It is so strange the way things develop in racing,for at a time when i need quality not quantity i have identified 5 serious possibles for tomorrow !.

[barrelmaniac]

Hi BM,this is my first year on £400 unit and i am comfortable with this size of wager.I started several years ago with a 2k bank and £50 unit and have gradually been able to reinvest from profits accrued.
I have often wished that i could achieve turnover via more bets and a lower stake,but for me this is not something i feel comfortable with.
My way of looking at capital deployment is to attempt max gain with min risk to starting bank,on an annual basis.This has worked very well for me in the past,in fact still is because dispite this abysmal run i am only 2pts down ytd,so 98% of my starting bank is still secure.
Basically during the past 5 months i have had to bite the bullet in ways which i did not really anticipate,but staking wise did allow for.As i posted yesturday i will probably give it another month,if things do not improve i will then consider reducing stake by 50% or stopping completely and just paper proofing for a couple of months.
It is so strange the way things develop in racing,for at a time when i need quality not quantity i have identified 5 serious possibles for tomorrow !.

but thats 5 opportunities to win, Sometimes I have days with more bets that makes me a bit nervous, but to reduce this means a case of deciding which ones to leave out so especially for me being a system better its just a case of going with the flow and accepting that 'on average' im comfortable doing what Im doing, so these daily blips don't bother me as much as they used to.

Now that you have explained in slightly more depth what you are doing, it appears that you know exactly what you are doing and the risks, so once again I will wish you luck both in the short term and long term, and lets hope it wont come to the point where you will need to paper bet or reduce the stake by too much. A few wins an this 'wobble' could soon be forgotten, its amazing how short our memories can be sometimes.

[mick56]

Hi BM theres nothing i can add to your above except thanks.

[mick56]

28/4 sel won 1.11 profit £27.75

Bank = £496

[bryn]

Well done Mick,loosing run over

[mick56]

29/4

Redc 4.0 Haigh hall
Folk 5.10 Mr hichens NR
Brig 7.0 Granny mcphee
Brig 7.30 Fault
Hunt 8.10 Phare isle

stake £25 on each

[neilb7]

29/4

Redc 4.0 Haigh hall
Folk 5.10 Mr hichens NR
Brig 7.0 Granny mcphee
Brig 7.30 Fault
Hunt 8.10 Phare isle

stake £25 on each

good luck Mick, i hope you get your bank back soon, todays could help towards it :D

[neilb7]

29/4

Redc 4.0 Haigh hall
Folk 5.10 Mr hichens NR
Brig 7.0 Granny mcphee
Brig 7.30 Fault
Hunt 8.10 Phare isle

stake £25 on each

fingers crossed for the rest

[mick56]

29/4 A lot of fuss over nothing,returning a profit of £6.50.

bank = £502.50

[mick56]

30/4 Don 2.30 Watch amigo stake £25

[bryn]

Hi Mick
Great minds think alike today HOPEFULLY

[barrelmaniac]

Hi Mick
Great minds think alike today HOPEFULLY

.... And me! I've got that horse as well!!!!!! so lets hope it will be a triple victory for us!

[mick56]

.... And me! I've got that horse as well!!!!!! so lets hope it will be a triple victory for us!

Well if we fail to get a decent price,i am going to blame weight of money from you two:)

[barrelmaniac]

Well if we fail to get a decent price,i am going to blame weight of money from you two:)

Back on track Mick

[mick56]

30/4 sel won 1.90 profit = £47.50

bank = £550

[barrelmaniac]

It did shorten a fair bit before the off.

[bryn]

Your moving in the right direction now Mick, pitty you did not take the 11/4 early price with any of the best odds guaranteed firms.

[mick56]

HI bryn I cocked up there mate,because i placed my own wager at BFSP,i dont want to sound ungrateful but that was a ridiculous price for a 15rn hcap.

You did well with your 11/4,but i genuinely felt it would start bigger.

I suspect BM had 10k on.

[mick56]

Back on track Mick

I bloody well need to be mate.At -14pts i have just logged my worst months results for the past nine years.

My YTD results are + 0.97pts,so with a third of the year gone it is like starting all over.A great deal of work for £388 profit.:splapme

[barrelmaniac]

I cocked up there mate,because i placed my own wager at BFSP,i dont want to sound ungrateful but that was a ridiculous price for a 15rn hcap.

You did well with your 11/4,but i genuinely felt it would start bigger.

I suspect BM had 10k on.

Ha Ha, I wish!!!

I have to admit that I had it on BFSP too as I had thought that it was a bit short earlier on too, I didn't see the race but I suspect that he must have looked tip top and well prepared just before the off.

[mick56]

1/5 New 1.55 Dalradian

New 4.15 Swilly ferry

stake £25 on each

[mick56]

1/5 both sel lost - £50

bank = £500

[mick56]

2/5 ham 3.05 Fibs and flannel stake £25