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Thread: Over The Jumps

  1. #1

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    Over The Jumps

    Though we might have the odd selection in bumper races this will do for National Hunt WIN selections:

    3.00 Folk - MR BIG



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    Slightly disappointed with Mr Big's second but have figured that he might need a rest & we should get our money back later in the season on him if he were to have one, or on the eventual winner Enroblim Trop who is obviously well h'capped...

    Talking of which, well handicapped, this horse, More The Merrier(Ire) was a well backed favourite on his seasonal debut and if not for a blunder at the last may well have won - the eventual winner has won twice since and the third too has gone on to clock 16lb better racing post ratings so I fully agree with the RP Analysis that it is only a matter of time before More The Merrier(Ire) gets his head in front so 3.20 Exeter -

    I have spent over an hour trying to get money on Betfair about this one & have decided to withdraw my money from there asap as I haven't got that sort of time to waste & am going out for a cash bet on the best I can get between Ladbrokes (5/s last look) & Betfred ?



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    A joke that was - half of Somerset was trying to get on that More The Merrier before they called the meeting off.

    Might have more here today but so far I like the look of EBIYAN (or was it the 8/1 at Ladbrokes?) 12.10 Chelt



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    Money talks! Ebayin drifted out to 12/s & came in around 5th or 6th - he'll know more next time & hopefully the stable will come back to form.

    2.35 Plumpton - Giolla De 4/s generally



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    Right! We're going to adopt a similar approach (which is basically total chaos but the results read well, so far [fingers crossed]) to this that I have been using to good effect on the In Ireland (Horses to Follow) thread & hopefully turn this thing around.

    First off, we're going to nick Dover's Hill (fell when in with a serious chance last week) from the Course Record Breakers thread as one to note but maybe to oppose too as Nicky Henderson should know what it will take to beat but

    Here we have the latest Nick Mordin system (more to be added in due course) qualifiers in Britain – I’ve sifted out the Irish qualifiers & posted them on that thread but

    Horses with official ratings below 100 which earn an RPR of 120 or more have been profitable to follow (on their next three starts) these last 4 years. In Britain they stand at 59 winners from 191 runners showing £66.09 lsp.

    Latest qualifiers: Ayemdee, Conc An Einn, French Riviera, Master Overseer, Mount Cook, Radnor Lad, The Snail,

    From this week, we should also make a note of Plein Pouvoir (Fr), qualifies on another system.

    The State of Play so far reads:

    Ebayin Lost
    Mr Big Lost
    Giolla De Lost
    More The Merrier NR Abandoned

    Down 3pts

    H'mm, quietly confident I can do better than that!



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    Going to have an ante-post book

    While Betfred are 33/s & Boylesports are 14/s I know where I'm going!

    17th Mar Chelt - Baring Bingham Hurdle - Bobby Ewing EW

    While Ladbrokes & William Hills are giving it away at 20/s

    19th Mar Chelt Gold Cup - Imperial Commander(Ire) EW



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    Got a couple of system horses, both of which I'm tempted to oppose:

    1.30 Kempton - Kennel Hill W

    I quite fancy Gifford's horse - I'll just have to restrain myself.

    1.55 Hunt - Rackham Lerouge W

    Hobbs has an interesting pair of runners at stupid prices, if there weren't so many runners....



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    Catterick

    1.50 Bureaucrat EW

    3.30 Drever Route Win



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    This should be a race worth watching! I is going to be brave or foolhardy & oppose the favourite, think he is up against one tough cookie at this trip..

    Sandown
    2.23
    Tchico Polos Win



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    Cracking little card at Musselburgh today & while I'm not really a suicidal masochist I'm going to have to oppose another Henderson favourite..

    4.30 Robbie Win

    Trainer has won race before, is in banging form for this type of race & just happens to qualify on one of Mordin's latest systems.



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    While I just gave Carlito Brigante a decent speed figure for yesterday's time of the meet at Musselbrough - he's now up there with Advisor as promising Triumph Hurdle prospects but a few years ago I singled out Punjabi as one to back on his debut against a layable false favourite of Davis Pipe's - I just looked at the entries for the Triumph & Nicky Henderson has quite a few that have yet to make an appearance & could strike at any moment:

    Monetary Fund
    Onemix filly
    Remember Now - once ran 2nd as 3yo
    Soldatino
    Souter Point
    Super Kenny (oh no! my landlord will love this!)

    Entries with other trainers yet to run:

    Club Tahiti - filly with A Carroll
    Double Handful - with V Williams think that running today!
    Final Approach - with W Mullins could be worth waiting for too...
    Point Of Light - former M Prescott now Paul Nolan in Ireland
    Shalambar - colt with A Carroll
    Sunwise - P Nicholls

    Quite like Nicholls' Royal Mix & I see Me Voici is still entered (interesting prospect that will be a better chaser whatever)



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    H'mm, Super Kenny is the one being backed for the Triumph but if Soldatino gets anywhere near Ultimate in the 3.40 @ Kempton then the 66's about him won't be around much longer.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    H'mm, Super Kenny is the one being backed for the Triumph but if Soldatino gets anywhere near Ultimate in the 3.40 @ Kempton then the 66's about him won't be around much longer.
    Well that was interesting, Super Kenny is still holding his ground in the betting & is still yet to run, Soldatino, you'll be lucky to get 10/s now Mille Chief has pulled out but it could be that the best 4yo won't be in the race.

    Escort'men, who also ran & won on Saturday's Kempton card, as long as he stays sound, is one we're all going to be hearing a lot more of but today:

    3.40 Folkstone - Honour High EW

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    Tuesday 16th March 2010

    1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2m 1/2f

    This race is ‘hot’ – Dunguib, Get Me Out Of Here & Menorah have already shown more than the usual winner – and could’ve been hotter still without the withdrawals of Peddlers Cross, Rite Of Passage & Morning Supreme, however, the aforementioned 3 have all ran more times this season than that of most recent winners, I’m going to go with Oscar Whiskey EW whose sire does well here with his hurdlers. (4th, 11/1)

    2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase 2m

    Irish raiders, Captain Cee Bee & Sizing Europe are respected but are a bit old – I’ll split my stake between Riverside Theatre W & Somersby W

    2.40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1/2f

    The winner most likely going to be shorter odds but I thought I identified a decent EW prospect in Chief Dan George in the Joint Effort do & I’ll stick with that. (Yah! Wins @ 33/1)

    3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2m 1/2f

    Statistically speaking, Punjabi, has a good chance of repeating last year’s win & is the only runner I can’t write off for one reason or another. If there is a fly in the ointment, I suppose it has to be that Khyber Kim, goes well fresh and I’m making him my Nap of the day to Win. (2nd @ 7/1)

    4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 7f

    One of the top weights here could be the first to win a h’cap off an official rating of >150 for a long while, so I’ll go EW with Another Jewell.

    4.40 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle Race 2m 4f

    While Ruby Walsh is keen on Quevega running another big race, she’ll be up against it with Voler De Vedette in opposition – I’ll go EW with Nick Mordin’s choice, Zarinava.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post

    The winner most likely going to be shorter odds but I thought I identified a decent EW prospect in Chief Dan George in the Joint Effort do & I’ll stick with that.

    .


    Well done Godspot



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    Quote Originally Posted by lowe1 View Post
    Well done Godspot
    Thanking you most kindly but yeh! I tink we're in profit & hopefully, I have something similar for today but first, I got something going at Huntingdon:

    1.45 Mycenean Prince EW (Disap 5th but recent 2nd @ 12/s & proper gd grnd plz next x!)

    I'll be back within the hour with some Cheltenham selections.

    Having said that, I'm already a point down today as one of my ante-post bets above is a NR, should've waited....

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    1.30 National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup 4m

    Interesting in that 8 of the last 10 winners had rpr’s 18lb or lower than the top rated – Alan King, who is a winner from three runners in that time has a contender in Pennek & Charlie Mann in Cast Cada but 2nd’s last time out do so much better than 3rd’s! Another one I like is Noakarad De Verzee but he’s a year older than ideal. I’ll go Pennek EW & seeing as I worked that out all by myself, that's today's Nap!)

    2.05 Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle 2m 5f

    A hot renewal me thinks. Willie Mullins has a good record & had 8 entries to choose from but 16 of the last 19 winners had won last time out & Quel Esprit has yet to clock a decent speed figure. Rite Of Passage, ‘the next big thing’ according to Tom Segal, much respected but his best has come over 16f so far. I like Peddlers Cross & his sires progeny do better over this trip but he still has it to prove. I’m going to side with the RP & Nick Mordin’s selection Summit Meeting EW.

    2.40 RSA Steeple Chase 3m 1/2f

    Got a feeling we’re looking at a new generation of top class heavy-weight chasers in the making. Going to have to be boring & side with the Timeform & RP(Nap) selection & proven course form of Punchestowns Win.

    3.20 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase 2m

    It’s tempting to put up Forpadydeplasterer as an EW choice what with the record of previous Arkle winners but I think Kalahari King who was only a head second has shown more improvement since. It’s hard to believe Master Minded Win is still only seven but I think that is the safest bet here.

    4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) 2m 5f

    Oh! I was going to choose somebody against my Joint Effort choice, Gold Award EW – old Mordin has had the hots for Sir Harry Ormesher for some time, he could still be right but seems a little high in the weights. Hampshire Express matches the profile of recent winners but while he has the best win to run strike rate & decent odds, I’ll stick with Gold Award.

    4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f

    Think I’m going to settle for being in agreement with the RP selection again, also among a select 7 to follow from Richard Dunwoody with this Festival in mind – seems to have gotten in on a fair mark, so, Stormy Weather EW

    5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) 2m 1/2f

    One of my favourite races of the year – not that I have the winner very often but the first Nick Mordin system I latched onto revolves around the runners here. Interesting to note that Auracaria has pulled out since getting a whipping from Shot From The Hip the other day – he now boasts the best on the figures. Again, this race may seem like a Willie Mullins benefit gig but none of his runners have the ideal profile – one that seriously interests me, Drumbaloo EW

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    Let’s have a quick recap before I embark on another day –

    H’mm, yesterday’s lot was supposed to come with a warning in that if previous experience is anything to go by – if I should have a good start, it wouldn’t be the first time that things swing into a rapid decline but my machine froze while I was editing the post & I lost around half hour before I had to go out, so sorry about that.

    H'mm, a good day followed by a dreadful one, nothing even placed but nice to see someone, namely, old Nick Mordin, he’s having a great festival – 2 winners Tuesday

    Menorah 12/1 (1/2 of Minehead was on that & nice to see we got a prospective Champion Hurdle contender just down the road again.) While I was telling all & sundry on Monday that people should take Paddy Power up with their offer (the Dunguib money back thing) & lump on it, I couldn’t put it up as a positive selection as 12 of the last 13 winners of that race had won last time out.

    Sizing Europe 6/1 [& I officially declared his sire, Pistolet Bleu(Fr), sire of the day, as he is dam-sire to Champion Hurdle winner, Binocular too.

    Quickly followed by 2 winners Wednesday

    Weapons Amnesty 10/1 (Now if I was betting on names, surely, I would’ve been interested but another who hadn’t won last time out & his last time victor, Pandorama, definitely, One for the Notebook!)

    Big Zeb 10/1 I suppose he was having a better season than usual, he hasn’t fallen yet but until yesterday he had done so nearly (fell 4 won 5) as much as he’d won, so he wasn’t for me.

    His sire though, easily Sire of the Day, maybe it was the ground but Oscar, he is the sire of Peddlers Cross (kept up his good record of hurdlers at 2½ miles at this course) too.

    So I got the P taken out of me today – ‘What’s this?’ Shouts the crossword queen from behind the bar. “ ‘Statistic,’ that’s our word of the day is it?”

    Worked nicely with Quel Esprit (as he was only 2nd last time out) & Long Run (as he’d won the Feltham, not a good record here) but not so sure about many others & I could only reply:

    ‘Yeh well, I seem to be repeatedly learning, good horses – they make a mockery of statistics.’

    So where does that leave us? Somewhere just below levels at a guess, I’ll do the maths after Friday. But I’m still holding 20/1 EW about Imperial Commander, that doesn’t look too bad now but I’ll probably be having a saver on Tricky Trickster.

    & meanwhile, as Shot From The Hip got stuffed in the bumper, I got a nice little Lay system coming along nicely (something I may dump on Mathare at any given time in the near future.)

    Maybe I should just follow old Mr Mordin? It can’t go on though, can it? What’s he got for today? 1.30 Sunnyhillboy, 2.05 Alfie Sherrin, 2.40 Barbers Shop (me likes too), 3.20 Tidal Bay (me like again), 4.00 Kicks For Free & 4.40 Khachaturian.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    I got a nice little Lay system coming along nicely (something I may dump on Mathare at any given time in the near future.)
    Why me?



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    Quote Originally Posted by mathare View Post
    Why me?
    Don't panic bud, it's really quite simple. But anyways, for now, let another day of total chaos commence.....

    1.30 Jewson Novices’ Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f

    Just a tentative EW shot in this as I think it wide open although I think Rivalist looks as good as last years winner, I don’t like the stat that shows P Nicholls as 1 winner from 10 runners. Interesting that 8 year-olds are 0 from 29 runners, can’t see that lasting much longer but the one that interests me the most now – just seen Ladbrokes are offering 16’s about Fiendish Flame EW, he’s 28’s elsewhere, that’ll do.

    2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) 3m

    After the elimination process, I’m left with two horses, Alfie Sherrin & Prince Erik but if I can just stretch the rules by about 30 days then prolific winner, Cross Kennon EW, who is at far more attractive odds for this type of race, would blend in nicely too.

    2.40 Ryanair Chase 2m 5f

    I have had this race in mind for Barbers Shop for quite some time and he seems in the right place in the betting but it wouldn’t surprise me and it wouldn’t be the first time that a lesser fancied Henderson horse was to run well too and I’m going to have a go at Jack The Giant EW

    3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle 3m

    This will be a great little test of Nick Mordin’s private handicapping as his figures differ somewhat from the Racing Post’s Topseed especially concerning & this is what he had to say about Tidal Bay’s Cleeve Hurdle run:

    A few times a season the clock tells you something that's unexpected, unequivocal and almost unbelievable. This was the case with TIDAL BAY Win (Nap) (42) in the Cleeve Hurdle. The time he clocked was just mind boggling. I've got to award him a rating of 42 on my scale for it. That's the best performance by a three mile hurdler in years - that's better than Big Bucks. In fact it's right up there with the very best three mile hurdlers of the last fifteen years. I've not given a three mile hurdler a bigger rating in that period, not even Baracouda or Inglis Drever.”

    It could be that Big Bucks just hasn’t met anything of this calibre to run against & when earning a Mordin 39, he said he could have opened up another 6-8l’s if needed – even so, that still gives him another 4l’s to find with Tidal Bay – “Best Bet of the meeting!” he says!

    4.00 Byrne Group Festival Plate Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f

    This time I think I’ve made a bit of a mistake with my Joint Effort choice and will go EW with my second choice, Great Endeavour, instead as he ticks more boxes.

    4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1 1/2f

    The only one I haven’t written off for one reason or another is Shillingstone Win, so that’ll have to do I’m afraid.

    Good Luck to one & all, yes, even you Mathare :D

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    16/1 placed & 18/1 win - a better day again & my only winners have come in h'cap chases.

    All EW's today...

    1.30 - Gilded Age (6th / 28/1, not run too bad)
    2.05 - Dee Ee Williams (3rd / 20/1, would've been in with a shout a furlong out, 16f)
    2.40 - Shinrock Paddy
    3.20 - Tricky Trickster (Nap)
    4.00 - Turthen
    4.40 - Radium (2nd, 14/1)
    5.15 - Tramantano (stable other horse won)

    Good Luck all...

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    H'mm, Super Kenny is the one being backed for the Triumph but if Soldatino gets anywhere near Ultimate in the 3.40 @ Kempton then the 66's about him won't be around much longer.
    I is beginning to think ante-post betting regards Cheltenham is not so bad.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    Was going to lay-off for a while but

    5.10 Newc - Melange EW - NR

    PU in a Grade 2 last time but the previous 4th has been well boosted this week. It may be he'll be better after a break but while floating above 10/s, gotta be worth a shout.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  24. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    Was going to lay-off for a while but

    5.10 Newc - Melange EW - NR

    PU in a Grade 2 last time but the previous 4th has been well boosted this week. It may be he'll be better after a break but while floating above 10/s, gotta be worth a shout.
    Try again:

    3.10 Kelso t' Win

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    Going to have an ante-post book

    While Betfred are 33/s & Boylesports are 14/s I know where I'm going!

    17th Mar Chelt - Baring Bingham Hurdle - Bobby Ewing EW

    While Ladbrokes & William Hills are giving it away at 20/s

    19th Mar Chelt Gold Cup - Imperial Commander(Ire) EW
    I suppose Bobby Ewing would fall into my Notable NR's category - add to that, & Pandorama but I'll be targeting a few races next year & have some initial fancies already:

    Cheltenham Target Races

    Day One

    Supreme Novice

    Arkle Trophy


    Peddlers Cross - said to be going chasing but from what I can work out could quite possibly be another Istabraq or Hardy Eustace ? ?

    Champion Hurdle

    Peddlers Cross

    Day Two

    Queen Mother Champion Chase


    Sizing Europe (as low as 9/2 already but probably the one to beat)

    Day Three

    Day Four


    Triumph Hurdle

    Gold Cup

    Somersby - Hard to imagine you could have 20/s about a horse who loses out in a photo in a good time with a dual Gold Cup winner but now you'll be lucky to get 16/s about this Arkle 2nd ? ?

    Please note: these aren't bets yet, they are just reflections on last weeks runnings.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    2.00 What a fascinating contest in the first @ Aintree today. On their runnings at Kempton I made Escort'men a stone better than Soldatino who went on to win the Triumph but whether he can turn over the Supreme Novice winner, Menorah(Ire) & whose trainer likes this race, is anyone's guess. One to watch me thinks but

    3.10 Jack The Giant EW

    5.30 Araucaria W

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  27. #27

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    Looks like the Jump season is livening up - & I have a better idea of what I'm going to be doing this year...

    Think Team Hobbs have some prospects at Worcestor - quite fancy their runner in the last at Ascot too but I can see things drifting towards Twiston-Davies by the end of the day.

    Anyway, I done:

    5.15 Worc

    Nikola
    Win



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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    H'mm, Super Kenny is the one being backed for the Triumph but if Soldatino gets anywhere near Ultimate in the 3.40 @ Kempton then the 66's about him won't be around much longer.
    1.55 Kempton

    Henderson has won the race 3 times in the last 5 years & seems in as good a form as usual, if not better, this year. Can't happen again, surely?



  29. #29

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    I think Nicholls will pick up the prize in that race this year, although I'd be quite content dutching the first 4 in the market, as the strong competition will give decent odds.

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  30. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by Win2Win View Post
    I think Nicholls will pick up the prize in that race this year, although I'd be quite content dutching the first 4 in the market, as the strong competition will give decent odds.
    Oh well - I think he'll be picking up a few more prizes with that one & I very much doubt you'll need to be dutching any in the Triumph - he's a future Champion Hurdler!



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