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Thread: Over The Jumps

  1. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post

    Menorah 12/1 (1/2 of Minehead was on that & nice to see we got a prospective Champion Hurdle contender just down the road again.) While I was telling all & sundry on Monday that people should take Paddy Power up with their offer (the Dunguib money back thing) & lump on it, I couldn’t put it up as a positive selection as 12 of the last 13 winners of that race had won last time out.

    His sire though, easily Sire of the Day, maybe it was the ground but Oscar, he is the sire of Peddlers Cross (kept up his good record of hurdlers at 2½ miles at this course) too.
    H'mm, sire of the day, probably going to be King's Theatre me thinks but we didn't do too bad last year, I'm in no way as detailed this year but try & go for two against the field in each of today's races:

    1.30 Cue Card / Zaidpour

    2.05 hard call but I told people to do Captain Chris yesterday & have grown to like Ghizao overnight - liked Realt Dubh originally & I don't think Medermit is out of it either, hard race.

    2.40 Sunnyhillboy & Blazing Bailey

    3.20 H'mm, Oscar Whisky is my top rated but ground against me thinks & horses 4 courses 3/3 sire4crses 10/33 within the last 12 monhts, oh! & he has 'the look of eagles' that should help secure Menorah his race!

    4.00 Sizing Australia EW

    4.40 Quevega / Sparky May

    5.15 American Trilogy & Swing Bill



  2. #32

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    King's Theatre probably just about about Sire of the Day but it wasn't quite the ones I thought that did the winning - Captain Chris has probably earnt me a pint or two though.

    I'll be awol again today so prepped & ready to go:

    1.30 – wide open heat, Chicago Grey & Alfa Beat head the figures but fav’s have poor record, like Aberdale for trainer’s record in the race & have Some Target down as a future star after winning the same race as Hedgehunter in his early days with similar merit.

    2.05 – Oscar Wells heads the figures by 8lb but slight concern about ground, perhaps my second rated EW, Tornado Bob a better bet?

    2.40 – Thank God for Time For Rupert! With +16 he looks to be my Most Clear top rated of the meet & saves me having to have the above) & has solid course form, as does possible outsider The Giant Bolster.

    3.20 – Close call on the figs & while he’s not top on them, statistically speaking for going/dist/crse he comes out marginally the best & being probably the biggest recent improver of the pack, I’ll just go Woolcombe Folly EW here.

    4.00 – Not going to have time to delve too deep but like that For Non Stop & a couple of EW longshots in Buskar Royal (is a clear top rated, I took 50/s with BlueSq) & Lightning Strike.

    4.40 – Here I’m hoping for a good run from the top wght Kembeshwar to give the rating I gave Zarkandar some validity – I’ll be happy if he’s placed but think this might come too soon. He’s joint clear top rated on my figures along with Kayef, who I’ve gone a bit EW on. I also like Whitby Jack, who won the same race as Blazing Bailey prior to his coming 3rd in the Triumph in a better time.

    5.15 – About time Nicky Henderson (Ericht) won this & he might just have it this time but I resign from betting in this race – I always get it wrong & my once top rated outsider is a NR….

    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    I'm going to be starting a new selection method while there are a few qualifiers today at Cheltenham. These are like what I have going in the GS Top Rated thread but these aren't top for the whole meet - they are just >5lb Clear Top Rated for their given race - they seem to do OK, I'm going to keep the AW separate & post the Jump qualifiers on this thread:

    Date Crse/X Type >5lbClearTop

    3/16/2011 Chelt 2.05 H Nov (148-
    177 +8 Oscars Well

    3/16/2011 Chelt 4.00 H (0-154)
    175 +6 Buskar Royal



  3. #33

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    A couple more to the above:

    3/16/2011 Hunt 3.35 H (0-102) +8 120 M'Lady Rousseur

    3/16/2011 Hunt 4.05 C (0-95) +13 118 Bennynthejets



  4. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post

    4.40 – Here I’m hoping for a good run from the top wght Kembeshwar to give the rating I gave Zarkandar some validity – I’ll be happy if he’s placed but think this might come too soon. He’s joint clear top rated on my figures
    A neck 2nd @ 33/s & giving the winner a stone - he earned the biggest figure of any hurdler @ Cheltenham today - not bad for a 4yo but Zarkandar is a stone better & should come out well clear on the figures at least in the Triumph....

    So, our new method >5lbClr Top Rated

    0/4 -4

    got a 4-0 whipping today, don't panic, on the spreadsheet they do better... It's a shame I didn't start the AW today, as they had 2/2 winners but they're going on a separate thread.

    Today may have seemed a bad one reading the above but it doesn't tell the whole story, my figures did very well especially in chases - we'd have made money dutching the top four, maybe I'll post them tomorrow



  5. #35

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    -4 so far then.....

    3/17/2011

    Towc 2.30 H Nov +18 140 Francesa

    3.35 Hex H Nov +14 135 Rupert Lamb
    5.25 Hex C (0-90) +11 115 Panthers Run

    Wex 2.25 H Mdn +21 141 Fever Pitch
    Wex 3.00 H (125- +6 149 No One Tells Me
    Wex 4.35 H (0-99 +6 122 Breeze With Ease

    4.20 Down R C Begs +6 122 Shernaz
    4.50 Down R C Hunter +17 143 Good Egg



  6. #36

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    Winners @ 5/6, 6/4 & 13/2 brings us back to almost level

    3/12 @ -0.10



  7. #37

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    This is how bad it gets -

    Chelt Day 4 -


    March 18th 2011 –

    Best Bets:

    1.30 – Zarkandar, Molotov, Unaccompanied – 6x CSF’s
    2.30 – Tarkari ew
    5.15 – might do top 4 rated in 12x CSF’s

    1.30 1 GR1 H JUV (150++++ RATING ODDS
    Zarkandar'Long-term it would be no surprise to see Z(139)(hehehe, oh! that's me) emerge as the best of the current crop. I'm struggling to name any juvenile in the past 15 years who has bettered that figure first time up over hurdles.' Steve Mason, rpr.XoM 180dys 16gs Kemp Feb 11- Gr1 Triumph H Entry for debut? Feb 11 - 194
    MolotofGr1 Triumph H Entry for UK debut? Feb 11 - 192
    Unaccompanied Mordin's Triumph hope Feb 11 - & then tips Kumbeshwar?? 169
    Sailors Warn 164
    Houblon Des ObeauxOne to take from Welsh National day Jan 11 - 162
    Sam Winner 160

    2.05 1 GR3 H (0-153)C QM 160 RATING ODDS
    Tarkari – 3rd behind Oscar Whisky (Champ H 3rd) 2 runs backXoM 35dys 16shy Leop Feb 10 - 122-127 PB 60dys 16hy Leop Jan 10 178+4
    Bellvano 174
    Alarazi 173
    Hunterview – a 5yoXoM PB 155me 16s Mussel Feb 11 - XoM 114 fit 16shy Warw Jan 10 - Owners live near Mussel. 171
    Spring Jim 170
    Cockney Trucker 169
    Praxiteles 168
    Get Me Out Of Here – McCoy & H*X of the meet 80dys fresh 17gs Newb TST Gr3 Feb 010 167
    Premier Dane – only q proper here!Dual 140-140's 07 & rated nr too! & once 40dys 17gs Chelt Mar 07 167


    2.40 1 GR1 H NOV (150+DODGY BETTING RACE – TOO MANY UNKNOWNS? RATING ODDS
    Gagewell FlyerXoM PB 162 poss me 42dys 20s Naas Jan 11 - see GoogleDocs - 14/1 15th/24 Chelt Bumper 09 167+4
    Bobs WorthBig chasing type sure to win a bumper! 163
    Kilcrea Kim – fresh, D & definitely more to come says trainer Mar 11 162
    Ackertac 158
    Court In Motion 156
    FiulinMust be highly thought of to field ag two 140+ OR'sin a Gr2 on h debut & money for too! 154
    Fully Funded 146


    4.00 2 C HUNTER FOX (139- RATING ODDS
    Gone To Lunch2nd in 2010 Scottish National & 3rd in Denman's Hennessy 148
    Baby RunTrainer wins 3 of last 4 races inc Gold Cup Chelt Day 4 010 - Has a fine place record & seems as good if not better than ever Mar 010 145
    Templer – 25/1? If there’s going to be an upset? 144
    Just AmazingXoM PB 143me 4dys 24s Taunt Feb 11 - NMQ Sand Feb 11 as 50% ftc - 143
    On The Fringe – a 6yo Irish hope whose scope for improvement is putting me off doing combination FC’s with the above, h’mm??? 138

    4.40 2 CJ’S H (0-140) QM 147ANOTHER HARD CALL WITH MANY POSSIBILITIES? RATING ODDS
    Shalone 164 11/1
    Rose Of The Moon – fresh, T*, looks the EW shotPossibly flattered by proximity to Bobs Worth Jan 11? - 162 18/1
    Sir Des Champs – fresh, 2/2 unbtn & with fig to suggest could waltz past this lot – cld be anything?future chase star NM Feb 11 - 156 9/2
    Hollins 156 25/s
    Higgy's Boy 156 25/s
    Monetary Fund 154 25/s
    Shoegazer 153 8/s
    Barizan 152 25/s
    First Point 152 18/s
    King Of The NightCrse Rec 145me 77dys 20ggf Donc Jan 11 - 121-120 150dys 16gs Ascot Feb 10 as bumper - Useful! 149 12/1
    Indian Daudaie 149
    Dantari 148
    Riptide 147
    Prince Du Seuil 147
    Son Of FlickaFast X (std +6.50s) Crse Rec fit 20g Worc Jun 10 - 146
    Astracadnr XoM PB fit 17g Chelt Oct 10 - figs from Mar Ras Sep 10 worthy!! 146
    QaspalX of the meet fit 16.5gs Sand Mar 10 - Imperial Cup - & on crse for Chelt bonus! 146


    5.15 1 GR3 C (0-151) QM 158 RATING ODDS
    Mister Stickler – looks the Most Clear Top Rated of the meet & decent EW price!Right age & wght & trnr4Race 1-1-3XoM PB 139me 12dys 16gs Winc Feb 11 - XoM PB 129me c debut 208dys 17s Plump Nov 10 - 180+8
    Pigeon Island – wcr 2010Looks live for a Chelt h'cap Mar 11 - - wins Grand Annual after trnr wins Gold Cup Mar 10 172
    Shoreacres 169
    Oh Crick – wcr 2009 – only q proper here! 168
    Leo's Lucky StarX of the meet fresh 16s Warw Dec 09 167
    Riguez DancerXoM PB 143me 10dys 16s Weth Nov 10 - 167
    Oiseau De Nuit 164
    Nomecheki122 sf PB 9 months fresh 17hvy Plump Nov 09 - Ran x of the day when The Betchworth Kid made his debut! 164



  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    This is how bad it gets -

    Chelt Day 4 -


    March 18th 2011 –

    Best Bets:

    1.30 – Zarkandar, Molotov, Unaccompanied – 6x CSF’s
    2.30 – Tarkari ew
    5.15 – might do top 4 rated in 12x CSF’s
    Think I will play up some winnings in the Grand Annual on my top 4 - just realised I hadn't pasted the Gold Cup (ano FC) into my Cheltenham file & so wasn't here!

    Think my top four will have the FC in the Foxhunters but prices bit short unless Templer runs a race?

    3.20 1 GR1 CHASE GOLD CUP (180-CLASSIC RENEWAL WITH 3 PREVIOUS WINNERS – HARD CALL MAYBE IC BEST OF THE OLD BRIGADE & POSSIBLY PANDORAMA BEST OF THE NEW BUT?

    RATING ODDS
    Denman – fresh, CD, bf181 sf PB 7 months fresh 27gs Newb Nov 09 - Previous best 08 Gold Cup 178 27gs 1 month fresh 191

    Imperial Commander – fresh, CD, X of the meet 3 months fresh 26.5gs Chelt Gold Cup Mar 010 191

    Long Run – think it was 1963, Golden Miller, the last x a 6yo won this butXoM PB 178me 63dys 24gs Kemp Jan 11 - faster then 3 of Kauto's KG's - Mackeson 1st 5 OTF Nov 10 - 182

    Kauto Star – fresh, CD2, bfXoM 165+me 225dys 24s Droy Nov 10 - 176 sf PB nr fresh 24s Hayd Nov 07 179

    Tidal Bay – fresh, C 175
    KempesXom PB 165me 16dys 25g Punch Gr1 Apr 10 - XoM fit 16shy Fairy Feb 010 bting a 5lb'er too! 172
    Albertas Run 169
    Midnight Chase – fresh, dual c winner & will ensure this is a classic?XoM jt 150 PBme 29dys 38gs Chelt Nov 10 - XoM PB 143me 25g Chelt Oct 10 - XoM 49dys 112-130 20s Font Mar 10 169
    Pandorama – fresh & NM’s choice after he put up Tidal Bay a while back?XoM 157me 31dys 24hy Leop Dec 10 Lexus - Better L/hndd! Another top notch chaser! NMQ 2656 too 50% ftc. 169



  9. #39

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    Dangerous stuff this - there's a glaring error in the above post & no-one's pulled me on it, oh well....

    Didn't have any qualifiers on this method yesterday so we're still

    3/12 @ -0.10

    3/19/2011

    Gown Pk 2.00 H Mdn (105- +6 116 Eirland

    Gown Pk 4.15 C Begs (110- +7 119 Baizically

    Uttox 3.35 C Nov (0- +10 153 Maraafeq

    Ffos L 3.10 H Nov (125- +8 145 Rudanphast

    Newc 5.05 H Nov (0- +9 107 Easter Vic

    Think I'll try & find time to move the middle bits/shift columns on table & just have horses name & crse/x soon, time time



  10. #40

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    1 winner from 5 isn't much cop either:

    brings us to:

    4/17 @ -2.35

    3/20/2011

    Newt A 3.45 Voramar Two +12 147 C Nov (135+
    Newt A 4.45 Qualitee +18 115 H (0-90)



  11. #41

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    This is getting sad too:

    4/19 @ -4.35

    3/21/2011

    Kelso 2.10 Wye Hill Teabags
    Kelso 5.10 Roger Beantown

    Ling 4.30 Whatever Next



  12. #42

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    Whoops, I missed one, thank God for the Joint Effort!

    3/21/2011

    Ling 5.00 Grey Cruzene



  13. #43

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    5/23 @ -6.62 - one short priced winner yesterday but really, not good enough &

    I had a look at my spreadsheet which goes back a bit further & separated the AW from the jumps - it doesn't look good for the jumps I'm afraid, so unless (we got a couple of chances) we have two winners today & one a decent price - sacked!

    3/22/2011

    Exet 2.30 Ask The Oracle
    Exet 3.00 Killusty Fancy
    Exet 5.20 Flying Award

    Kemp 3.50 Gee Dee Nen
    Kemp 5.00 Decision
    Kemp 5.30 I Have Dreamed

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  14. #44

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    6/28 @ -5.62 - one NR & one winner @ 5/s leaves us a point up on the day but me still wondering whether it's worth persevering with. One positive sign is that we haven't had a long losing run - see what turns up tomorrow?



  15. #45

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    We'll plod on with this for a while - I got a couple of ideas to improve if it doesn't pick up:

    3/23/2011

    Hayd 2.10 Daldini

    Warw 2.20 Sweet Irony
    Warw 4.40 Mayolynn
    Warw 5.10 Golden Prospect



  16. #46

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    7/32 @ -7.37 - Another short priced winner from 4 & I don't like today's racing at all.

    3/24/2011

    South 2.00 Rebel Melody

    Thurl 1.55 Kilflora

    Carl 2.20 Ouest Éclair

    Chep 2.40 Won More Night

    Carl 4.00 You Know Yourself

    Thurl 4.20 Most Chaste
    Thurl 5.00 Dizzy Rascal
    Thurl 5.35 All Great N Theory



  17. #47

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    Gutting! a neck away from a very good day as Dizzy Rascal 2nd @ 9/s - still a couple of points up on the day with winners @ 7/2 & 9/2, leaving us at:

    9/40 @ -5.37 -

    One swift little change & that could look like:

    9/24 @ +10.63 -

    Just by taking out the 16 losing h'cap hurdle selections, simple...

    I'm thinking too, as have missed a couple of winner lately, by adding horses that are 5lb clear, as opposed to more than....



  18. #48

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post

    9/40 @ -5.37 -

    One swift little change & that could look like:

    9/24 @ +10.63 -

    Just by taking out the 16 losing h'cap hurdle selections, simple...

    I'm thinking too, as have missed a couple of winner lately, by adding horses that are 5lb clear, as opposed to more than....
    Yeh, I think that's the way to go - h'cap hurdles are out & 5lbClear in any other type of race are in....

    Newb 2.10 Easter Meteor

    Sedge 2.20 Scriptwriter
    Sedge 3.30 Priceless Art

    Newb 5.00 Turko

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  19. #49

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    Two out of 4 here, one of which, Turko was just 5lb Clear:

    11/28 @ +11.65 -



  20. #50

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    3/26/2011 - after all that!

    Bang 5.25 Jackson Cage



  21. #51

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    Selection lost yesterday - poor day today -

    11/29 @ +11.65 -

    3/27/2011

    Hex 5.40 Victor Hewgo



  22. #52

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    Another loser yesterday & had plenty on my other thread, seems all downhill these days:

    11/30 @ +10.65

    3/28/2011

    Towc 5.30 No Substitute



  23. #53

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    The downslide continues:

    11/31 @ +9.65

    3/29/2011

    Taunt 2.20 Bold Addition
    Taunt 3.50 Petite Margot
    Taunt 4.50 Thunder Child
    Taunt 5.20 Titch Strider



  24. #54

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    Another 2 from 4 at short odds to produce another small loss on the day:

    13/35 @ +9.55

    3/31/2011

    Ludl 5.05 I Have Dreamed
    Cork 6.55 Garryncurra (but if the Reserve, Bless N'Ject, should run, he becomes the selection.)

    3/31/2011 - LAYS

    Going to start keeping a record of these >4lbClear Qualifiers in H'cap Hurdles because they just keep losing, surely due a winner but here goes for starters:

    Ludl 3.35 Mad Moose



  25. #55

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    A NR & another loser in a bumper, it's been a strange year for such races this -

    13/36 @ +8.55

    1st April 2011

    Strat 2.10 Falcon Island
    Strat 2.40 Marley Roca

    Newc 5.30 Twelve Paces

    LAYS - Let's make a rule - nothing bigger than 5/s - So far

    1/1 as Mad Moose lost @ 7/2

    Got a feeling one of these will let us down but even if they both win it won't bring the SR on the spreadsheet below 90% so

    Newc 5.00 Vallani
    Newc 6.00 Willie Hall



  26. #56

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    2 out 3 on the Win front @ 4/1 & 11/4jf:

    15/39 @ +14.30

    2 from 2 on the Lays:

    3/3 @ +1.04



  27. #57

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    4/2/2011 - Not much confidence behind any of these either:

    Chep 2.15 Bally Legend
    Chep 3.20 Super Directa

    Uttox 3.00 Four Strong Winds

    Gown Pk 3.45 Glenlo Abbey

    Uttox 5.45 Lorum Leader

    LAYS

    Uttox 4.05 Switched Off



  28. #58

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    Looks like Saturday can go here too another poor one [4/4 now] yesterday with only one from 5 & the bumpers had better have a winner soon too, they're next for the dreaded - the Lay lost though to maintain our 100% record.

    16/44 @ +11.10

    Lays:

    4/4 @ +1.29

    Chaos today as we start having mixed meetings but

    4/3/2011

    Lim 2.35 Total Reality

    Mar R 3.05 King Fingal
    Mar R 5.10 D’Gigi

    Lim 3.10 Action Master
    Lim 4.15 Quiet Thought

    Curr 5.00 Double Double



  29. #59

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    Two more losers with bumpers - they're sacked! Otherwise not a bad day with a couple of winners:

    12/50 @ +17.20 - ah, 50, that's handy, we can take out the bumpers & look like this:

    11/40 - +25.50 - we only lose one odds on winner but 9 losers....

    Lays:

    4/4 @ +1.29



  30. #60

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    There's going to be some changes soon, as we are going to import the NH Most Clear selections from the GS Top Rated thread but today

    4/4/2011

    Kelso 5.30 Coldwells
    Kelso 6.00 Tom’s Toybox



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