Or anybody really, but I know Mat likes to get his teeth into something and analyse things.
I've been using the same basis for my ht stuff to get correct scores using poisson and have been testing things out by backing every score that is value with a £2 bet over the past month using mostly in play games from the major european leagues and brazil and argentina too.
Anyway over all in this time there have been 245 bets. The stakes per game range from around £16 (8 value bets) to a high of £26 (13) but on average it tends to be about 10 value bets for an outlay of £20 per game. To date my profit stands at £369.57 which I'm really pleased with, however since starting on the 23rd November my bank peaked at £770 and has since dropped in the last week down to £369. The main reason for this appears to just be the luck of the draw in that it's scores like 1-0 2-0 1-1 that are the winning one's and thus lower odds, rather than a nice 3-2 at 34 or something.
My strike rate up to the 8th Dec was 97 out of 177 54.80%. Since then it's been 31 out of 67 46.27% So, not a big drop in the strike rate really, especially when there's only been a third of the number of bets in the second sample as the first.
In that first batch there were two excellent wins of £201 and £209, but of course any game you miss the score means a £20 or more loss so it's not as if those two wins were making the system appear to work because the strike rate was good over the whole sample. I was particularly pleased with one which was Blackpool winning 3-0 away at 120/1 which my stats suggested should have been 28.31/1.
So I guess my question is am I looking at the monetary value and getting concerned the system may not work and wanted a fresh pair of eyes to look at the stats and get another opinion.
If you need to know anything else on the stats just say. I haven't recorded each games outlay stake unfortunately and I don't really want to go back over my profit/loss for 250 games to get it. Calculating all the losing bets the average stake was £19.24 so I would suggest we could estimate the average stake to be £20 which would give an ROI of (369.57 / (20*245) ) * 100 = 7.54% by my reckoning, so that is very encouraging.
I think perhaps I need to just keep going and it's just the initial profit was above where the trendline would be and it's 'correcting' itself now. After all value or not even that 0-3 if the true odds were as my stats suggested would only come in once every 28 games, so this is still a relatively small sample of games.