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Thread: value

  1. #1

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    value

    I always find it fascinating that certain words have thier day with regards to popular use and meaning,a current example being Transparency.

    Racing is no exception and every where i look recently the media appears to have revived VALUE as being the bees knees,but as with most aspects of racing this can have diffrent meaning or interpretations.

    For myself i tend to judge value in the long term as apposed to with individual horses,IE if at the end of the year i have made an acceptable profit ,then i assume that i must have obtained value on balance.

    But the fashion at present appears to revolve around backing the value horse(s) in a race almost regardless of thier chance on form,this is an approach i would not care to use,but some claim success.

    So how do we identify a horse who is a bigger price than it should be,for those unable or unwilling to price up a race themselves the obvious answer is to compare available prices with those quoted in a betting forecast,this can be useful excepting that you have to have some understanding of the compilers objectives and thinking,is he forecasting prices based on each horses chance or on what he thinks the final SP might be because the two are not necessarily the same thing.

    I would suggest a better option would be to scan the bookmakers early prices,the large firms have thier own form annalists and dare i suggest access to stable intelligence.If you pick just one of these firms who you feel may be good at this,lets for example use Ladbrookes it can be most informative when the prices are first available to note if they have taken a position concerning an individual horses chance.With the odds checkers now available on line possible value bets can be spotted with very little time or effort.

    In closing i would say that i was remained of the existence of this potentially valuable aid by Godspots recent post on the 2000 guineas,where he mentioned that Ladbrookes where only going 20/1 a contender that other firms had at 50/1.



  2. #2

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    Value has two main (related) meanings when it comes to betting...

    1) Shopping around to get the best odds possible, and

    2) Following a system/method to estimate odds of an entrant and then betting on those where you can get better odds

    When betting, #1 should be pretty much a given. If you don't get yourself the best odds than you're in trouble. Your example of a 50/1 being priced at 20/1 is perfect. The 50/1 gives you an extra 30 outs (assuming a 1pt flat staking plan) before you run a loss. That's huge in terms of gambling.

    I think #2 is what most people refer to when discussing how to get value when betting. And the simple fact is that this is very subjective - everyone has their own method for assigning value.

    The most important thing about #2 is the accuracy of the value ratings. No matter what the method for assigning an estimated value to an entrant you need to be able to factor in the accuracy of the rating systems before betting. For example, if I knew my rating system was 100% accurate then I would simply always bet on any horse that had better odds and I'd end up making lots of money! But in reality that doesn't happen. Sometimes my ratings will be over-valued and sometimes they will be under-valued, and that is the biggest variable that would affect the results and sadly something that is hard to measure accurately.



  3. #3

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    The reason why VALUE dropped away is because the solution to the age old argument is simple .... use Betfair ... you get VALUE instantly in most cases , and of course just when you get the best odds, but that last bit isn't value it's common sense!

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    Keith Driscoll - Administrator
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  4. #4

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    There's an interesting one going tomorrow for anyone with an account at Paddy Power - in the Irish National - One Cool Cookie - 50/s with them, 46 on Betfair & 16/s ?? Ladbrokes

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  5. #5

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    value

    Thats an interesting one GS what do ladbrooks no that paddy doesnot.



  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Thats an interesting one GS what do ladbrooks no that paddy doesnot.
    Totally strange! Yesterday, PP were as low as 25/s just after I posted the above, now back to 33/s Betfair 60/s, Ladbrokes are now 40/s & it's Betfred that are the shortest on 20/s - certainly a 'springer!'

    My original fancy for the race, Agus A Vic, there's been a constant stream of money for since the 48 hour decs were available, he was 50/s two days ago, now best priced on Betfair @ 14/s. I missed the boat with him...

    I'm now looking at Bronte Bay, around 40/s, 50/s yesterday, with a keen eye.... fffffffffffffffffing busy day though!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  7. #7

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    Racingpost Pricewise hunt down early value in the morning's prices LOL



  8. #8

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    hi lads , have any of you ever looked at backing all 3 of timeforms 1-2-3 in every race each day, i have been logging all their 1-2-3's for the last 12 days,( its alot of races and alot of horses i know), but at betfair sp at a £10 stake per horse for the last 12 days you would be showing a profit of £1142 . I know what ur thinking if you back 3 horses a race , if all 3 lose u lose £30 and even if one wins u still lose 20 on the other two, well yes that is true and there are lots of races where all 3 lose , but because they post their tips on betfair the night before, some of their picks drift drastically on betfair which means every now and again one sneaks a win you are showing massive profits, their was 1 yesterday called metropolitain miss who drifted to 33.62 in the 3.50 at kempton so that along with a 12.0, two 7.0s and a few others made it a very profitable day. Of the 12 days only 7 days were winning days and 5 were losing which with a small stake of £10 makes it even more amazing to show profit over £1000 . obviously this would need to be monitored over a longer period but might be worth looking into, racing doesnt start today untill 2.10 so if u go to betfair click on horse racing then form/results it will bring u into todays cards each race will have timeform 1-2-3 just save them all or print them off then tonight check results of betfair sp. hope it continues like this lads unlikely both worth keeping an eye on, oh and back a horse called steps to freedom in the very last race of aintree festival, if he is each way value , its a fantastic bet!!



  9. #9

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    Thankyou very much for sharing your view..



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