mick56 bettingblog

[vegyjones]

Well, it's quite clear what the selections should be today...

With Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton securing a one-two in the Chinese grand prix, it's clear to me that we should be backing;

3.10 Ascot - Troubletimestwo
3.45 Ascot - Fit To Drive
5.05 Wincanton - Always Cruising

A couple of names with car in the name, Watoscar and Knockvicar, but I don't think they are meant to be backed today!

Hadron Collider runs today, but unless that makes the news before the off time, that's a no bet

:D

[mick56]

Forum gossip why not its fun?.Latest Mick56 is trying to give himself negative rep,moderators are giving the request SERIOUS consideration.

[mick56]

Synchronicity vegman its the only way,incidentally was it you who nicked the hat?.

[Win2Win]

I do hope Vegy's bedroom technique is much better than his betting one :D

[mick56]

I do hope Vegy's bedroom technique is much better than his betting one :D

Vegys advanced synchronicity techniques can be put to many good uses,or so he tells me.:)

[mick56]

I start work on the races that interest me at the 4 day stage,and of course it often occurs that one you fancy is not dec at the overnight stage.I have just downloaded the dec for tomorrow,and i am in with the chance of 4 bets.

The last time this occurred Dec08 all 4 won,the only other time ALL 4 lost.So its going to be a long 30hrs.

[mick56]

April so far has been a miserable month for me with 9 consecutive losers i am still in front on the YTD,but it is proving a drain on profits and confidence.So it is with mixed feelings that i face today's racing,as i have identified 4 that i want to back.
This type of situation is why i maintain that there is no easy money in racing ,you earn every pound.
If they all lose and there is a bet tomorrow i will still back it,because i have the confidence that long term profits will be prouduced,but always lurking in the back ground is the thought that past profits were a fluke and it is all about to go wrong,this is part of the price we pay.

[Win2Win]

April for me has been OK, especially the last week.

[mick56]

April for me has been OK, especially the last week.

April in past years has always been a profitable month for myself,and this year i was looking forward to it,which just confirms that the past is never a guarantee of the future.Still there are 12 days remaining and i do occasionally get >10/1 winners so one of those would sort it.

[Win2Win]

April is usually a struggle with the changover in racing codes, which can get very annoying some years.

[Godspot]

Try using a pin for picking horses, it'll work just as well as hours of research in flat handicaps at the moment. :splapme

I beg to differ - it certainly seemed like the latter that pointed me in the direction of Brunston @ Newbury on Saturday. I did look see if it was the Joint Effort race but they chose the Scottish National. The same process threw up Bond City who won at 50/s in the week too but I had the hots for a shorter priced qualifier in that race.

[mick56]

Hi GS winners at 40/1 and 50/1 your not using synchronicity are you ?.

[Godspot]

One of the fashionable theory's to be banned about in the last few years is that the effects of weight should be ignored,i suspect this originated from USA where a certain Mr Bayer wrote at length on the subject,and it has been picked up on and advocated by some of the British press.

It is not a view that i agree with,IMO extra weight will prevent a horse from winning,and therefore judicious use of a claiming rider can improve a horses chance.The other positive aspect is that because many are prejudiced against them, then this can be reflected via a generous price.

I wouldn't be so sure that it is Andrew Beyer - he says himself on a Chapter on Weight:

"Of all the handicapping factors, weight is the one that ought to lend itself most readily to mathematical analysis -

and concludes with - after a test on 3,000 horses asked to carry 6lb more & 3,000 set to carry 6lb less:

"Added weight did cause horses to run slower but decreased weight did not enable them to run faster."

So I don't think it's him.

[mick56]

Hi GS perhaps he changed his view,before or after what i read,because unless he was misquoted,his view was that weight should be ignored.
Strangely not long after i read this there where articles published in British betting mags advocating the same.

His view which you quote ie putting extra weight on a horses back will slow it down,but taking weight off will not necessarily make it go faster,is a seemingly contradiction in terms which i would agree with,and first read the quote by a trainer from the last century!,so there is nothing very original there.

[Godspot]

Hi GS winners at 40/1 and 50/1 your not using synchronicity are you ?.

Only in maidens!

I was going to say that the only Synchronicity that I'm likely to use is an album by The Police as Stewart Copeland is one of my favourite drummers (he's nearly as good as me) & funnily enough he works for the BHB now handicapping horses but

I was doing some painting on Saturday, went for a beer after where I know the landlord likes the trainer B Meehan, so I made sure he was on Colour Scheme in the last at Newbury - darn thing only came 2nd but was 40/1 though!

[Godspot]

Hi GS perhaps he changed his view,before or after what i read,because unless he was misquoted,his view was that weight should be ignored.
Strangely not long after i read this there where articles published in British betting mags advocating the same.

He has been quoted out of context then as he says himself -

"Fortunately, American horses are seldom set to carry huge imposts, so bettors can usually afford to ignore the factor.

High weight assignments are more common in other countries, like UK & Australia."

It seems only in the US he is/was talking about.

[mick56]

A horrible day think i will take up bingo.

[barrelmaniac]

A horrible day think i will take up bingo.

Its been my worst day ever! fortunately I have had some decent days lately so it equates pretty much to treading water so far this April.

Mick, your strike rate has got to improve soon, Its just a bad run of luck you have had recently.

[mick56]

Cheers BM amazingly i am still 2pts up on the year which is £800,but it seems like a lot of work for very little return,I dont think its bad luck or bad judgement,i try never to take profits for granted and perhaps this is just a long over due negative correction sod it.

Still there's the chance of a couple tomorrow.onwards ever onwards.

[barrelmaniac]

Cheers BM amazingly i am still 2pts up on the year which is £800,but it seems like a lot of work for very little return,I dont think its bad luck or bad judgement,i try never to take profits for granted and perhaps this is just a long over due negative correction sod it.

Still there's the chance of a couple tomorrow.onwards ever onwards.

Yes Mick, nothing is ever sure in this game, we all know the risks, and anyone that doesnt shouldnt be doing it- Its been a funny old year so far, with hints of great potential and big sequences of losses that sometimes seem like forever. Im still in profit for 2010, but like you it's only by a little bit and not at all as much as I was hoping......... but its better than being money down!

I think that there are many people on here that will be feeling the same from what 2010 has given us.

[mathare]

I think that there are many people on here that will be feeling the same from what 2010 has given us.

Yep. 2010 has been a funny year so far and certainly hasn't delivered the profits I had been expecting and hoping for so it has delivered profits all the same. Hopefully the summer months are set to provide us all with a big profit boost.

[mick56]

Hi BM and Matt i agree results have been strange YTD,and many are not yet in profit.The thing that i find upsetting is how badly some of my selections have run often with no apparent excuse or reason.These have frequently been horses at the front of the market,i dont think we can blame the snow now,and still wonder if there has been some kind of virus or equine flu about,although i have not read any reports of this.

Normally in the above situation the first question i ask is what have i done wrong and what can i learn from it,but going over the bets i have placed this year then apart from the fact that so many run poorly there is nothing i would change,they where all based on ideas and analise that have produced good profits for the past few years.

Anyway i am through with beating up on myself for today.

[mick56]

I was going to say that the only Synchronicity that I'm likely to use is an album by The Police as Stewart Copeland is one of my favourite drummers (he's nearly as good as me) & funnily enough he works for the BHB now handicapping horses

Hi GS your above interesting information,cause for futher speculation i reckon jimi hendrix would have made a great jumps jockey,would not have won often,but hey man would have just floated through the air.

[mick56]

As win2win showing links to the site i guess it is ok to mention it here.Sporting Life.com,any members who have not been there it is well worth a look.
They provide a decent day before betting FC,the stats are very good if that's your thing,and the race replays,where you can choose between viewing full race or closing stages,is a good idea.Also the results section where they show any large oncourse wagers is interesting.

[Godspot]

Hi GS your above interesting information,cause for futher speculation i reckon jimi hendrix would have made a great jumps jockey,would not have won often,but hey man would have just floated through the air.

Dunno whether it was just primitive recording techniques of the time but I never rated his drummer, Mitch Mitchell, much - would love to have put Jimi in a jam with Keith Moon, that would've been good but

Thanks for my daily chuckle yesterday - you made me realise I had bought the same book twice :splapme looking up that Beyer stuff....

Looks like I'll be making a comeback on the Joint Effort thread

[mick56]

I never rated his drummer, Mitch Mitchell, much - would love to have put Jimi in a jam with Keith Moon, that would've been good but

Hi GS agree your above,the one i would have liked would be hendrix, moon,
jim morrison,and jack bruce.got sod all to do with betting but good fun to discuss,perhaps we should start a thread elsewhere asking members for thier fantasy jam session line up.

[Godspot]

got sod all to do with betting but good fun to discuss,perhaps we should start a thread elsewhere asking members for thier fantasy jam session line up.

Dunno, be funny if Musical Delight won the 2.20 @ Kempton - only has 3 stone to make up on the figures But Tom Queally @ 50/s!!

[Win2Win]

Ignore the F/c Odds on the SL site though, they are pants

[mick56]

Ignore the F/c Odds on the SL site though, they are pants

I tend to use an avg between them and the RI forecast as a guide,but to be fair to both forecasting up to 24hrs in advance,when much can change is difficult,but at least they both have a go.

[mick56]

I dont want to get involved with to much negativity,but two losing bets yesturday wiped out the last of my profit this YTD.So nearly 4 months into the year i am starting all over.

I work from a 100pts bank and that is still there,so i should be thankful for small mercy's,but whatever the final outcome it is going to take a long time to forget what has occured so far this month.I have always maintained that there is no easy money in racing,but did not expect it to ring this true.