mathare's Premier Lays

[mathare]

I think I have earned the right to start a Pro-Bets thread for my lays given the success of the False Favs systems I ran until recently. And so I give you Premier Lays :)

I hope to be able to post up a full set of stats from an extensive backtest of this idea but this will have to wait until I am a bit more with it (I only got back from holiday at 2am!). For now you'll just have to make do with the qualifiers.

This system will produce fewer qualifiers than my previous lay system, perhaps only 1 or 2 a day on average. The selections will have a greater ROI than my other system though.

As with the False Favs thread, the selections are profitable without the application of an odds filter but laying only those selections in the 3/1 to 13/2 SP price bracket (which is approximately equal to 4.4 to 9.0 on Betfair) results in a significantly greater strike rate and ROI.

Let's get down to business...

[mathare]

Sunday 16th May
2.50 Stratford Classic Swain

[mathare]

Classic Swain beaten a hd at 8/15 so a good start.

I don't have all the stats set up for this yet, give me a couple of days to get various things sorted though.

[mathare]

Monday 17th May
3.20 Newton Abbot Working Title
4.30 Bath Home Advantage

[mathare]

Both of yesterday's selections went off at 15/2, one won and one lost

Nothing for today (Tuesday)

[mathare]

Wednesday 19th May
2.25 Lingfield Loyalty

[mathare]

Loyalty lost at 6/1 :)

[mathare]

Thursday 20th May
3.40 Wetherby Two Left Boots
4.25 Southwell Capponi

[mathare]

Losers at 5/2 and 3/1 yesterday

Friday 21st May
3.10 Chepstow Hajoum
3.50 Catterick Mr Wolf
5.10 Chepstow Ogre

[mathare]

Losers at 10/3, 11/4 and 9/2

Saturday 22nd May
2.45 Goodwood Managua
3.20 Goodwood Skysurfers
4.40 Haydock Peponi

[mathare]

Losers at 11/1, 4/1 and 5/2

None for Sunday

[mathare]

Monday 24th May
3.00 Leicester Sophie's Beau
4.00 Leicester Seta
4.45 Carlisle Imperial Djay

[mathare]

Winners at 9/2 and 6/4 plus a loser at 5/1

Tuesday 25th May
4.20 Chepstow Silent Oasis

[mathare]

Silent Oasis lost at 11/4

Wednesday 26th May
3.50 Ayr Tillietudlem

[mathare]

Winner at 8/15

Thursday 27th May
4.40 Brighton Tom Wade

[mathare]

A loser at 5/1. Stats to come soon, I promise...

Friday 28th May
5.40 Newcastle Averoo

[mathare]

Averoo was a non-runner

Saturday 29th May
2.40 Beverley Trumpstoo
5.40 Newmarket According

[mathare]

Losers at 4/1 and 7/2

Sunday 30th May
2.30 Fontwell Wiesenfurst
4.10 Fontwell Kilshannig

[mathare]

Losers at 10/3 and 7/1

Monday 31st May
2.00 Goodwood Speed Gene
5.35 Leicester Contradiktive

[mathare]

At last, a stats update! :)

The table below is far from perfect but it will do as tables are a bit of a pig to get 100% right on this forum. It shows the figures for this system dating back to the start of 2008 (I will post a separate table of results for just those selections posted on this forum later) to three separate sets of prices: industry SP, SP+10% and Betfair SP. It's unrealistic to expect to be able to lay at industry SP which is why I include the SP+10% figures which offer a much more realistic view of the system's performance. The Betfair SP figures are included as a worst case scenario as layers should easily be able to beat those prices.

As you can see the ROI is pretty good for a lay system, 3.88% to Betfair SP and 5.41% to SP+10% for the recommended price bracket (3/1 to 13/2 or 4.40 to 8.60). Selections outside this range are profitable but analysis has shown that these price brackets offer the best return on investment.

Oh, and all results are to 1pt fixed level stakes.

.	Industry SP	.	Industry SP+10%	.	Betfair SP	.
.	All	3/1-13/2	All	3/1-13/2	All	4.40-8.60
Bets	1224	578	1224	578	1224	541
Winners	1004	505	1004	505	1004	469
SR	82.03%	87.37%	82.03%	87.37%	82.03%	86.69%
Profit	180.51	181.92	103.18	152.13	33.60	107.42
ROI	3.17%	6.46%	1.65%	5.41%	0.48%	3.88%

[mathare]

Early days still but here are the stats for the selections that have been posted to this thread

.	Industry SP	.	Industry SP+10%	.	Betfair SP	.
.	All	3/1-13/2	All	3/1-13/2	All	4.40-8.60
Bets	22	11	22	11	22	11
Winners	18	10	18	10	18	10
SR	81.82%	90.91%	81.82%	90.91%	81.82%	90.91%
Profit	3.07	5.00	1.66	4.55	0.89	4.20
ROI	3.32%	9.85%	1.64%	8.96%	0.81%	7.66%

[mathare]

Losers yesterday at 8/1 and 9/2

Tuesday 1st June
3.30 Redcar Dream Win

[mathare]

Dream Win a 4/1 loser

Wednesday 2nd June
3.10 Nottingham Admirable Duchess

[mathare]

A 13/2 loser yesterday

Thursday 3rd June
4.00 Newton Abbot Eddie Dowling
5.00 Newton Abbot Cubism

[mathare]

Losers at 7/1 and 9/2

.	Industry SP	.	Industry SP+10%	.	Betfair SP	.
.	All	3/1-13/2	All	3/1-13/2	All	4.40-8.60
Bets	28	15	28	15	28	14
Winners	24	14	24	14	24	13
SR	85.71%	93.33%	85.71%	93.33%	85.71%	92.86%
Profit	8.77	8.80	7.36	8.35	6.59	7.05
ROI	6.92%	12.18%	5.28%	11.56%	4.28%	9.76%

[mathare]

Friday 4th June
1.30 Wolverhampton Elsie Jo
4.05 Epsom Aviate
4.15 Catterick Nabari
5.15 Catterick Aqua Vitae

[mathare]

Losers at 7/2, 5/1 and 13/2 plus a NR

Saturday 5th June
3.40 Musselburgh Ziggy Lee
4.00 Epsom Jan Vermeer

[mathare]

Losers at 7/2 and 9/4

.	Industry SP	.	Industry SP+10%	.	Betfair SP	.
.	All	3/1-13/2	All	3/1-13/2	All	4.40-8.60
Bets	33	19	33	19	33	18
Winners	29	18	29	18	29	17
SR	87.88%	94.74%	87.88%	94.74%	87.88%	94.44%
Profit	13.52	12.60	12.11	12.15	11.34	10.85
ROI	9.16%	13.61%	7.47%	13.12%	6.37%	11.56%

[mathare]

Sunday 6th June
2.30 Brighton What Katie Did
3.20 Southwell Somethin' Stupid
4.50 Southwell Efisio Princess

[mathare]

A NR, a 7/1 loser and a 6/1 winner, by a neck!

Monday 7th June
2.15 Folkestone Trailblazing
5.00 Newton Abbot Know Your Place