Matt's Home Win System

[MattR]

I've been using some data I've built up since January, originally for another system I'm running but have now added a rating system to it. From this I've backtested a system that looks promising so as I'm going to start it for real from tomorrow I thought I may as well start it up on here too as commemoration of the death of win2winRSS.

All selections will have odds of Evens or above and will be playing at home.

Stakes will be 3% of the bank with a starting bank of £333.33 because I want to start with a £10 stake so there. (and yes i know technically that isn't £10 )

Figures from the backtesting are:
37 wins from 63 bets
Average odds of 2.31
Profit to a level £10 stake would have been £210.16



Starting Bank £333.33
Next Stake £10


Selections will follow in due course.


Should mention that this is for all leagues and the selections will be a little thinner on the ground until the main european seasons are settled down, for now any selections will probably be from scandinavia, russia, japan, brazil and Ireland

[TheGoodGuy]

Good luck with this Matt......I'll be following with interest.

[Win2Win]

......I'll be following with interest.

What interest rate?

[scoobydoo]

Remember, you better make a profit or you won't be able to go back to Canada!

[Win2Win]

If he doesn't show a profit I'll put RSS Feeds on his username

[yerotsluap]

looking forward to seeing how this goes

[MattR]

Thanks guys, I'm hoping it will go well over the long term.

If he doesn't show a profit I'll put RSS Feeds on his username

[mathare]

Good luck with this Matt, will be watching for sure. £210 profit from £630 staked is not at all bad going and it will be interesting to see whether you can maintain this sort of profit rate. Any idea what the long-term ROI should settle down to?

Seeing as you've posted this I am now tempted to run one of my systems on here too to give you a bit of competition...

[MattR]

I don't really know Mat. The breakdown per month was a little mixed but February I didn't get chance to collect a lot of data and March was only from the 19th onwards so those months don't have a lot of games to really make any long term prediction over. Of course 63 games in total isn't a lot either but I would say looking at the months where I had a lot of games to take the qualifiers from then there were probably only 10-20 more games that would have been qualifiers. There will be more now it's live though as there was no discernable pattern to it being league specific so I will try it on as many leagues as I have time for. Mon-Fri that should mean pretty much all games will be looked at but weekend games during the main season some of the lesser leagues I may not have time for, we'll see though, I'd like to.

Here's the qualifier's by month wins/losses
Dec 2 - 1
Jan 4 - 6
Feb 2 - 2
Mar 9 - 3
Apr 8 - 3
May 10 - 4
Jun 1 - 1
Jul 3 - 5

As you can see Mar/Apr/May were very good. The fact all the odds are over evens means anything approaching a 50% strike rate should see profit. July is almost in profit despite the 37% SR as there was a 3.25 odds winner (and a 3.40 one in May)


Yeah, post it Mat, the more the merrier, look forward to seeing it. I know you've been crunching some numbers will be good to see what you've found.

[MattR]

Ok, we have the first qualifiers today - or rather over night as we start with two qualifiers from the Brazilian 2nd Division. Haven't had more than a couple of these in the previous data so we'll see how it goes.

I will be using Betfair for all these so will take 5% commission off (assuming I get any winners ) All selections are the home team


Brazil 2nd Div
Icasa v Guaratingueta 2.16
Portuguesa v Sao Caetano 2.04


There should be a couple more for tomorrow and also Sunday from the look of things.

[scoobydoo]

Good luck Matt

[barrelmaniac]

That looks like a good return Matt, hopefully you will get off a good start. Good luck Its always good when members put their money where their mouths are.

[MattR]

Thanks Scooby and Barrel.

The longest losing run so far would have been 3 but it's hard to gauge how it will fare as there could be 5 or 6 qualifiers one day then 3 over 5 days or something. If it can hit say 4/9 on a regular basis then it should be good.

[Iron Chris]

Good Luck Matt...

[vegyjones]

Go Matty, go matty, go matty!

[MattR]

guys.



No pressure then

[MattR]

First two games done

Icasa v Guaratingueta 2.16 DREW 0-0
Portuguesa v Sao Caetano 2.04 WON 3-1


Profit/Loss -0.09

New Bank 333.26

New Stake 10.00

Today's qualifiers

Brazil Div 2
ASA v America MG 2.44
Parana v Nautico 2.15

MLS
Philadelphia v New England 2.14

[MattR]

2 from 3 today

Brazil Div 2
ASA v America MG 2.44 WON 2-1
Parana v Nautico 2.15 WON 4-0

MLS
Philadelphia v New England 2.14 DREW 1-1

Day
2/3
Profit 14.75

Total
3/5 60%
Profit 14.66

New Bank 347.99
New Stake 10.47




Sunday's Qualifiers:

Norway Div 1
Bodo/Glimt v Sarpsborg 2.16

Brazil Campeonato
Gremio Prudente v Santos 2.60

[MattR]

First one is in the bag so this will see a small profit at worst on the day. If the second one can oblige it will give us a very nice start on these.

Norway Div 1
Bodo/Glimt v Sarpsborg 2.16 WON 4-0

[MattR]

Sunday results

Norway Div 1
Bodo/Glimt v Sarpsborg 2.16 WON 4-0

Brazil Campeonato
Gremio Prudente v Santos 2.60 LOST 1-2


Day
1/2
Profit 1.56



Total
4/7 57%
Profit 16.22


New Bank 349.55

New Stake 10.49


No qualifiers for Monday

[MattR]

Right, now the Euro cornflakes cup is out of the way for the week we can get back to some league football.

One qualifer for saturday:

Stake 10.49

Brazil Div 2

ASA v Bahia 2.28


and one for sunday, stake to be determined yet

Swedish Eliteseries

Halmstads v Elfsborg 3.45

[MattR]

Both lost at the weekend

Stake 10.49
Brazil Div 2
ASA v Bahia 2.28 LOST 0-1

Stake 10.19
Swedish Eliteseries
Halmstads v Elfsborg 3.45 LOST 0-3


New Bank 329.36

Two for tonight

New Stake 9.88

Brazil 2nd Div
Guaratingueta v Nautico Recife 2.36
Icasa v Brasiliense 2.18

[MattR]

Two winners last night

Brazil 2nd Div
Guaratingueta v Nautico Recife 2.36 WON 1-0
Icasa v Brasiliense 2.18 WON 3-0

Profit: 23.93

Results to date:

Bets: 11
Won: 6
Strike Rate: 54.55%
Staked: 111.31
Profit: 19.95
ROI: 17.92%
Ave Odds: 2.36

New Bank: 353.28
Next Stake: 10.60


Looking like the next qualifiers on this should be on Friday.

[MattR]

One for tonight
Stake: 10.60

Brazil Div 2
ASA v Santo Andre 2.40

[MattR]

A winner last night


Brazil Div 2
ASA v Santo Andre 2.40 WON 2-0

Profit: 14.14

Results to date:

Bets: 12
Won: 7
Strike Rate: 58.33%
Staked: 121.91
Profit: 34.09
ROI: 27.96%
Ave Odds: 2.36


New Bank: 367.42
New Stake: 11.09

Two for today:

Brazil Div 2
Brasiliense v Guaratingueta 2.12

MLS
Real Salt Lake v Columbus Crew 2.14

[MattR]

Brazil Div 2
Brasiliense v Guaratingueta 2.12 DREW 2-2

MLS
Real Salt Lake v Columbus Crew 2.14 WON 2-0


Profit: 0.95

Results to date:

Bets: 14
Won: 8
Strike Rate: 57.14%
Staked: 143.95
Profit: 35.04
ROI: 24.34%
Ave Odds: 2.32


New Bank 368.37
New Stake 11.05


Two for today:

Swedish Div 2
Hammarby v Assyriska 2.22

Brazil Campeoneto
Gremio Prudente v Vasco De Gama 2.48

[MattR]

Swedish Div 2
Hammarby v Assyriska 2.22 WON 3-2

Brazil Campeoneto
Gremio Prudente v Vasco De Gama 2.48 LOST 1-2


Profit: 1.64


Results to date:

Bets: 16
Won: 9
Strike Rate: 56.25%
Staked: 166.05
Profit: 36.64
ROI: 22.07%
Ave Odds: 2.33


New Bank 369.97
New Stake 11.10

[MattR]

There was one qualifier for this that I was unable to post but I will include it anyway as it lost. So results to date are as follows

Results to date:

Bets: 17
Won: 9
Strike Rate: 52.94%
Staked: 177.15
Profit: 25.54
ROI: 14.42%
Ave Odds: 2.32

New Bank 3358.87
New Stake 10.77



One for tomorrow

Norway Tippeligen

Haugesund v Tromso 2.28

[MattR]

Haven't had chance to post selections the past week or so although there have only been two more anyway. The one above was a 0-0 draw and the other two were one win and one loss. I will include these in the new totals as otherwise it won't match my results and will be a pain to update!

Results to date:

Bets: 22
Won: 10
Strike Rate: 45.45%
Staked: 208.8
Profit: 18.61
ROI: 8.91%
Ave Odds: 2.31

New Bank 351.94
New Stake 10.56


No selections for next couple of days.

[MattR]

One for tonight:

Reall Salt Lake v Colorado 2.06 stake 10.56