The GS Top Rated

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Going to start this again now that the form has settle down a bit & hopefully we can do better than break even - going to include EW bets too:-

Both EW these two:-

York 3.50 Liebesziel
York 5.30 Boston Blue

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2.25 Sand

Shafgaan EW

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Doesn't seem worth going EW if they can't be bothered 3-0 to be placed even - I'll just post selections & try & keep W-P- to Run record:

so far then 0-0-3

Salis 3.05 Electra Star
Salis 5.20 Border Abby
Cork 4.40 Livia’s Wake

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W - 0

P - 2 - 11/4f, 25/1

S - 6

Not too bad yesterday - bit donkeyish today:

13/6/2011

Carl 3.15 Spinatrix
Carl 4.15 Ay Tay Tate 20/1
Winds 6.30 Aquasulis 3/1f
Warw 6.40 Alnair

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2 winners from 4 today so far - got a couple more as I was running late earlier:

Winds 8.00 Sir Francis Drake
Warw 8.10 Billion Dollar Kid

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W - 2 - 3/1f, 20/1

P - 2 - 11/4f, 25/1

S - 12

That's nice as I wasn't going to start until after R Ascot but

14/6/2011

Asc 3.05 Swiss Diva (think the ground will dry out?)
Thirsk 4.40 Snow Magic
Asc 5.00 Veiled 11/2

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Good old Sadler's Wells etc etc - not quite the Black Type we were looking for but I'll settle for a Royal Ascot winner any day -

W - 3 - 11/2, 3/1f, 20/1

P - 2 - 11/4f, 25/1

S - 15

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I didn't put Frankel up as too short & now I'm not going to bother with Shumoos either - 15/06/2011

5.35 Asc -

Secret Love

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These two probably more chance of a place than winning but

Asc 2.30 Sweet Chili
Asc 4.25 World Heritage

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Poor so far today -

Good 6.50 Standout (last chance saloon with headgear first time) NR

NewmJ 9.10 Instructress

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6/22/2011

Salis 3.15 Totheendoftheearth
Carl 5.15 Green Park

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Oh dear, the strike rates going down -

Winds 4.00 Guru Girl
Salis 4.10 Trovare

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Have to admit I'm struggling with the figures on the flat - looks like I'm going to have to sit & watch this season out & see which courses they do best at -

I'm going to add a list here of courses where they do well -

Ascot - (without Royal), so far July 11, >4Clr 33% & LSP but could be skewed by one 16/1 shout back in April the rest of the winners all between 2-3/1

Curragh - Irish Oaks was a good day with 3 TR winners - >4lbClr just about breaking even & not sure of others totals Jul 11

Doncaster - pretty fair track just about breaking even with >4lb & TR & could be better with a filter or two - July 11 -

Fairyhouse - looking good after two meets but hardly enough yet July 11

Ffos Las - The >4lbClr well in profit upto & including July 11, fair track!

Killarney - glad I sorted standards for course as figs do very well as from Aug (festival) 2011

Naas - seem to do alright.

Leopardstown - besides the odd Group race winner it was pretty sad here until that Thursday meet in early July (2011) where we had 4 top-rated winners, though none of them >4lbClr

Newmarket July - Looking much better than the Rowley course, especially after 50/1 Albaqaa (might skew the results) but the last two meets have been OK for our Top-Rated's with the clear ones.

Roscommon - Cracking July meet with two clear Top-Rated winners at 12/s & 7/s - not much racing here though & I only did it as there was a Listed race on card but mustn't forget Whatever It Takes clocking 81 from 59 & maybe the second Unique Style one to watch out for too.

Salisbury - continues to be good Aug 11

Sandown - got better as 2011 flat season progressed culminating in a 5 top rated winning meet one Sat (Solario Stakes day) mid-Aug -

Tipperary - good, good place!

Windsor - Zero to hero in a few short months (see July 11th as example), easily, one of, if not the best track for my figures, consistently good results.

York - Totally random! Have had a couple of good meets but mainly tragic, unless we're >4lbClr in a Listed or Claiming Stakes - forget it!

Those two meets exemplify what I call at present, 'the GS dilemma,' - by Monday, after the usual, 6,7,8 meet days of Friday & Saturday, (where the racing is so competitive you're lucky to hit a winner) I'm usually buried in the results trying to rate-up the best of, then you have to come down to the lowly (0-60)'s on Monday - there's a fine line somewhere between tomorrow's champions and today's bread and butter!'

Yarmouth - Tricky course! That Captainrisk (a >4lbClr TR) 15/2 winning one meet in Jul 2011 made for one profitable meet but usually disappointing.

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Dear oh dear - looks like the July course is a lot friendlier than the Rowley at Newmarket - 50/1 yesterday & now 11/1 Brae Hill - both of whom weren't >4lb Clear, they were just Top Rated

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King hell - Fairyhouse is looking good, good first meet & now 2 out of three today so far & I suppose Rose Bonheur did look the best but what's the bet if I post the rest of the day's they all lose?

Sassaway +4
Flowers Of Spring +5 11/2 Winner!
Hassanali +4
Accompanist +1

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Up until now we've only been dealing with horses that are more than 4lb clear on the figs - from now on I'm going to try & post a Top Rated for most races as more often than not we'll have a winner that makes them profitable to back blindly but this works better at some courses than others & that's what I need to find out, so as usual it's just a work in progress.

Theoretically the more clear a horse on the figs the more chance it should have but say like Dreams Of Dawn below they can be overbet & not worth their odds:

Ffos Las -

Just For Mary looks best here?

Mia Madonna +3?
Just For Mary +11 4/1
Dreams Of Dawn +19 - lost at 1/5f as mentioned above.
Countess Salome +1+
Record Breaker +7?
Dubai Miracle +21??? - meant to say, all those ??? denote disappointing & may be better off doing 2nd rated Drive Home who won at 6/s, next time?
Border Abby +7

Ayr - OR denotes Only one with a Rating & more often than not sitting ducks waiting to be gunned down by a debutant but

Flambard House OR
Timeless Elegance jt 5lbClaimer should swing it? - 9/4f
Chosen One +1
Rosbertini +2
Craicattack +6 but field size - needs smaller!
Izzy The Dizzy +2
Monkton Vale +11
Jewelled Dagger +10 7/2

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Cracking start having singled out Just For Mary at Ffos Las but here's another couple of good examples at Windsor:

Like Overpowered @ Newmarket last Saurday, sometimes my figures (as I strive with Going Allowances to be more accurate) will pinpoint something the Racing Post etc will miss & while their top rated, like that Ladykin (3rd @ 5/1) will be overbet, mine will be a decent price & voila, 8/1 Top Rated winner - but Chunky Diamond in the 2nd could be another fine case in point (though probably lose now I've flagged it).

& then there's that Miss Lahar in the 4th, may well be clear but has an UW next to her name - that denotes, 'Unworthy'

With 2yo's, unless a horse has clocked an 80 or more it can easily be surpassed by a decent debutant or an improving 2nd start runner, I'd be wary of taking a short price about that.

Windsor -

Cruise Tothelimit +2? 11/4
Chunky Diamond +14 13/2
Enriching +3
Miss Lahar +10 UW
Wishformore +9
Lady Gabrielle +4 4/1 & I think that gives us a LSP for the day, yah!

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Strange day! Even Sadler's Wells had a winner - Praxiteles @ Ffos Las but did't figure amongst the ratings & ran a real slow time again, probably win a Group race in France

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Couple of hot races in France this evening & while Reliable Man is my top rated in the Gr1, he's hardly clear on the figures & is only around 11/4, while Ley Hunter, in the Gr2, he's well clear on my estimates & is about 9/2, looks the better value bet to me but there is a Sadler's Wells runner, Mores Wells, who is still an entire, no doubt he'll be trying & Nick Mordin puts up Times Up in his column in this week's Weekender.

Meanwhile, my ratings don't do any good at Leicester so we'll leave that.

Hamilton -

Joshua The First OR
Greyfriarschorista +22?
Sunday Bess +20
Stella Point +1
Zomerlust +3
Here Now And Why +6

Not how we're likely to get on but I'm going to try & rate up every chase that's run as we seem to do OK in them:

Cartmel -

Cool Touch +6
I'm Your Man +4
Bob Will +2

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Poor day @ Hamilton yesterday with just the one winner but not giving up on the place yet, feeling more confident today:

Hamilton:

Carlitos Spirit +5
Half A Billion OR but Worthy figs?
Blue Noodles +4? Trip?
Lowther +4
Royal Trooper (Ire) +3
Hal Of A Lover OR
Marvo +2

Pontefract -

Vital Gold +6
Miss Topsy Turvy +9
Whozthecat +1
Vanilla Rum +1
Mayan Flight +4
Pearly Wey +4

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Oh terrible day! Suffered a couple of corrections yesterday, absolute shiite at courses where we usually do OK & a 20/1 top-rated (Tinshu, who I quite fancied anyway as the jockey has a cracking record on!) at Newbury where we normally flop - so I'm going to have to pull the plug on this idea - I'll be swinging my spreadsheet around a bit tmoz but I reckon I'll conclude that I'm probably better off looking for decent priced things like below & may eventually take Ada up on his EW Yankee idea.....

Curragh:

2.40 Sacred Sovereign 16/s

Newbury

2.55 Al Mayasah 9/s

NewmJ:

3.10 World Heritage 40/s
4.45 Sonoran Sands 20/s

Mar Rasen

3.45 Ostland (Ger) 6/s

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Bit unlucky with that lot as a few were just behind the placings at decent odds - fancy my chances of breaking even or better @ Yarmouth this afternoon:

Tidal's Bay OR
Madame Excelerate +11
Our Gal +11 4/1
Caldermud +2
Below Zero +3 8/1
Liberty Ship +6
Snow Hill +6 8/1

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- fancy my chances of breaking even or better @ Yarmouth this afternoon:

2 8/s & 1 4/1 from 7, bit better than breakeven

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Got it right yesterday by not posting - not too sure about today & only like a few:

Leop 6.25 Remember Alexander 7/1
Donc 7.55 Primo Lady 3rd/7 @ 16/s
Leop 8.00 King Of Aran 2nd @ 11/2

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Could try an EW Yankee at Ascot today:

Asc 1.30 Discovery Bay
Asc 3.15 Ahlaain
Asc 3.50 Al Muheer
Asc 5.40 Audacious

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We had a good day at Galway yesterday & got some decent prices today so we'll try another EW Yankee - these are the first 4 flat races:

Bashkirov +6
Defining Year +3
Silver Sycamore +3
Mirahanda's Girl +1?

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Could try an EW Yankee at Ascot today:

Asc 1.30 Discovery Bay
Asc 3.15 Ahlaain
Asc 3.50 Al Muheer
Asc 5.40 Audacious

Talk of the devil - that Audacious runs today 4.30 Yarmouth where he is 9lb clear top rated on my figures. I'm a little bit skeptical of his chances as Bet365 are best priced 14/s about him 9/s elsewhere but they usually get it right.

His best figure from me [102] comes from a HOT maiden at Doncaster from September 2010 as a 2yo and he hasn't quite lived up to it yet.

The other day, another horse, Musnad, from the same race was a clear top rated when he won at 8/1 & I dissed him as he hadn't lived up to the figure [99] but he nearly matched it - so at some point I feel, that 102 about Audacious is going to prove worthy, especially when they find his right trip. I not sure a mile is going to be it as he is by Motivator who are usually better over further but he was leading at this distance last time when running over 10f & today he runs off a career low 76, h'mmm....

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Maybe I should put a pic together for Audacious he best distance & ground figs but here, Tarkari, 4.40 Ffos Las not just clear top rated on my figs but a rather clear only qualifier on my old method using the Racing Post's figs - the qualifying mark for this race being 140