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Thread: Win2Win Racing System Pack 1

  1. #91
    markrob is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

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    Sorry KC, my mind must be in turmoil at present, just realised I wrote previously I get my selections from the Sporting Life website but this of course should have read "Racing Post" online, as per original rules!



  2. #92

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    Quote Originally Posted by markrob View Post
    Keith, having checked my emails I see I didn't receive your mail of 9 Dec 12 so I was oblivious to your drastic rule change to more than 10 days since last run. Why such a dramatic change from 6+ days? I hope it's a case of swings and roundabouts and I have not lost out too much on this! Your individual course P/L figures are different to mine, as is to be expected, but the total profit seems comparable.

    I am still completely baffled by your "first 4 in the forecast" explanation. I don't know anyone who takes this view, it seems from your reckoning that if you have 2 joint favs the next horse in the betting is 2nd fav, not 3rd fav as recognised in the racing industry. So if we have 2/1 Dog, 2/1 Mouse, 5/1 Rabbit, 5/1 Horse, 5/1 Donkey, 10/1 Rat, 10/1 Sheep, 10/1 Gerbil, 12/1 Stoat, 12/1 Weasel, we may have 10 selections??? Sorry to labour this point but I can't understand your reasoning.

    Oh well back to the head scratching as to what to do from now!!!
    Wife's granddad died yesterday ... and as the UKBA has he passport, she can't leave the UK

    I double checked the emails, and they all went

    The good news Mark, it that inadvertently you found that the old rules still work on one track, so you may want to continue with that one as is, and use the new rules for the 3 mentioned tracks. Just keep an extra eye on how the old rule track performs.

    Forecast betting works on prices, the horse names are irrelevant. If you have 3 X Joint Favs and 3 X Joint 2nd-Favs, then you have 6 horses in the first 2 of the betting market.

    I can't remember why the rule change took place

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  3. #93
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    KC* is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

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    Sorry to hear the bad news Keith, my deepest condolences & hope the passport issue gets sorted asap!



  4. #94
    markrob is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

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    Sorry to hear about your wife's grandad Keith, my sympathies. Don't get me started on the UKBA, they are beneath contempt! I've been trying to get my wife a 2 year spouse visa for over 8 months now and it's a tortuous/horrific experience, but I digress.

    Well there is much food for thought on the AW fillies and it looks like many hours of contemplation/research are in store. Hindsight is a great thing but if I knew at the outset what a huge divergence there was in the performance of each track I would have set up a separate bank for each track. I wouldn't like to think how large my bank would be now, Dundalk alone would be massive and for the poor performing tracks I would have lost minimal amounts. Did you consider doing this?

    Also, if I can find the time it would be good to consider whether Kempton could be backing system???



  5. #95

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    I run it all as one system, but due to the number of runners you could run them separate.

    Kempton shows a negative ROI% for Win and Lay.

    The change in days was only a minor tweak, here are the results if the rule was >6 since 2011

    Last 1.5 Year Results
    Dundalk +64
    Kempton -72
    Laytown -2
    Lingfield +47
    Meydan +3
    Southwell +11
    Wolves -79

    Compared with the new:

    Last 1.5 Year Results
    Dundalk +49
    Kempton -55
    Laytown -3
    Lingfield +74
    Meydan +3
    Southwell +17
    Wolves -57

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  6. #96

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    So what those figures show, if you wish, old rule for Dundalk, new for the other 2 ...... The reason why the old rule still works well at Dundalk is because they tend to run horses quicker in Ireland.

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  7. #97

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    For those who like a little more risk, the longest losing run in 10 years has been 3, so it is possible to use a recovery plan. However, you would need to bet around 0.5% of the bank.

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  8. #98

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    I'm talking to myself a lot today

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  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Win2Win View Post
    I'm talking to myself a lot today

    But we are listening

    I know it's off topic but can I ask a quick question while your here........

    Have you updated any rules for the 'Flat Layem' system as I wondering if:-

    a) It's working how it should ?
    b) You sent out an e-mail I may have never received ?

    Thanks



  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by markrob View Post
    Hi KC, just to let you know my strike rate for 18 months is 83.6% so unsure why yours is significantly less???

    Could be your first 6 month's when I was not doing it must have been good or because I don't use RP as indicated.

    I need to do them the night before as I work shifts and I need to keep the costs down until I see profit hence why I now use ATR, it would be interesting to see others who use SL or ATR comment on there strike rate.



  11. #101
    markrob is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

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    Thanks Keith, all very useful and helpful. As I said before much food for thought and many hours pondering what to do now!

    Just to be sure, your new rule states >10 days since last run, > usually means "more than" so you are saying must have run 11 or more days ago, is that correct? I'm asking because the old rule was "must have run 6 or more days ago" but in one of your posts today you said the old rule was >6, meaning 7 or more days, was this a typo?

    I think I will stick with Dundalk, Wolves, Lingfield, Jebel Ali (my 4 profitable tracks) and one of my losing tracks, Southwell, to see if the new days since last ran rule pulls it round. I have to keep Wolves as it's my 2nd best profit maker, why we have such a glaring difference in our P/L figures for this track is a mystery!

    I am also considering having separate banks for each track so I maximise returns on the profit makers (especially Dundalk) and minimise losses on the ones that turn into losers.....we'll see.



  12. #102

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC* View Post
    a) It's working how it should ?
    b) You sent out an e-mail I may have never received ?

    Thanks
    a) +50pts for me this year
    b) Version 2 - This came out 7/12.

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  13. #103

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    Quote Originally Posted by markrob View Post
    Thanks Keith, all very useful and helpful. As I said before much food for thought and many hours pondering what to do now!

    Just to be sure, your new rule states >10 days since last run, > usually means "more than" so you are saying must have run 11 or more days ago, is that correct? I'm asking because the old rule was "must have run 6 or more days ago" but in one of your posts today you said the old rule was >6, meaning 7 or more days, was this a typo?

    I think I will stick with Dundalk, Wolves, Lingfield, Jebel Ali (my 4 profitable tracks) and one of my losing tracks, Southwell, to see if the new days since last ran rule pulls it round. I have to keep Wolves as it's my 2nd best profit maker, why we have such a glaring difference in our P/L figures for this track is a mystery!

    I am also considering having separate banks for each track so I maximise returns on the profit makers (especially Dundalk) and minimise losses on the ones that turn into losers.....we'll see.
    New rule is now equal to 11 or more

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  14. #104
    KC*'s Avatar
    KC* is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

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    Thanks for the reply Keith regarding Flat Layem.

    I never received the email regarding the update but I've downloaded it now so I'm good to go.




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