Turbo lays question

[ProPocer]

Hi Keith, I'm having a punt at these for a bit and was just wondering, there's a fair few races where say 3 or 4 horses out of the top 5 or 6 in the betting are to be laid, does this mean to say that the remaining 1 or 2 not to be laid at the top of the betting make for a decent winning system? When I see there's one horse left not to be laid I imagine you lumping on big but then think no there's probably alot more to it than that lol.

[ProPocer]

Picked the wrong day to quit sniffin glue

[ProPocer]

mmm 5 consecutive winners, 25% of a 1% bankroll vanished. My timing has always been impeccable throughout life

[ProPocer]

If I want to run a diary of these, say comparing my results to your's, where in the forum can I so this? No category seems apt. Thanks

[Win2Win]

This category is fine

Laying say 4 in a 5 runner race comes up quite often, but it does mean if the outsider wins you scoop a big prize, and even if one of the hores you lay wins if it is a short price you may still profit as happened with a horse today.

The Turbo Lays do have big swings, well all forms of laying do, especially when you are just starting off, but it teaches you that while the stakes are small.

[ProPocer]

I've looked through all the systems on a trial membership, finding them a bit confusing. Which are the most profitable ones? Which is most profitable laying wise, are the W2W lays as good as the turbos etc?

[Win2Win]

The Max Lays and W2W Lays have fewer qualifiers so turnover, therefore profits are slower than the Turbo Lays, but they are all profitable, and these two have been proven for years on the site. The Turbo Lays have only been up since last May

[ProPocer]

Am I right in saying that the W2W lays are up 630pts then, over what time scale is that?

And also over what time scale have the System Bankers taken to reach £13k at £50 levels?

[ProPocer]

Another thing, regarding the cut-off prices for the turbo lays. I'm presuming that if these are system generated using whichever software it is you use, that statistically list 1 showed no profit on selections laid over 11/1 SP, list 2 12/1 SP and list 3 10/1 SP. In view of that, do you personally put most of the lays on at the last minute, waiting to see for example if an 11.0 shot from List 3 is going to drift out past 11.5 or are you just going to get it on at that price a few minutes before even it it turns out to have drifted to 12's by race off time? This is where it all gets a bit tough. How much danger is there of crippling the system by not being accurate with these cut-offs?

[Win2Win]

System Banker: Started: Oct 07
W2W Lays: 2009

It's not really a case of the Turbo Lays not showing a profit over the cut-offs, they do, however profits quickly drop to negative figures before you get to 20.0 due to the way the overbet rapidly increases. So the cut-offs are decided to give enough flexibility for those placing bets at different times.

For instance with no cut-offs I may put a bet on 1 min before the off and get 12.0, while someone places it at lunchtime and gets 18.0, as these prices can 'bounce' a lot. If it wins the lunchtime guy takes a big hit. By having cut-offs it keeps the overbet under control.

You won't crippls the system regardless when you put the bets on, as long as it is not the night before . It is preferred to get on about 2 mins before the off, but that is my preference. The horses at the cut-off are less than 10% of the selections. Someone may hit a 12.0 that I miss, however they then may get 12 profitable Lays around the cut-off that I miss, so long term you only actually lose a small potential of the profits.

You simply place the bets on when you can, simple

[ProPocer]

OK sounds cool. Then for the differences between 11.5 and 13.0, I might just stick to one cut-off for all 3 systems to maker things easier. Say 12...

[Win2Win]

OK sounds cool. Then for the differences between 11.5 and 13.0, I might just stick to one cut-off for all 3 systems to maker things easier. Say 12...

You could, but the cut-offs I publish are the ones based on each systems risk, average winning price, average price, etc

[ProPocer]

I've only just noticed there's an SP option on betfair now! But it seems you can only stake to your liability not to backer's stake. Why can we not have both options? Then we could just place everything at SP. If you take that option when exactly does BF place the bet for you?

[Win2Win]

All is explained here: http://www.betfair.com/help/Help.SP.Betting/

You can only use liabilty due to the way the bet works.

[ProPocer]

Mate that long odds on was sick!!

[Win2Win]

If you're using fixed stake you lose little when an odds on shot wins, but make more than you can lose and long term they are profitable regardless of individual results.

[ProPocer]

wow a dead heat!

[ProPocer]

Yeh well with that particular bet I had money on a couple of the bigger priced horses, I mean if the system says it's supposed to lose then you HAVE to take advantage of a massive price that's going to win imo.

[Win2Win]

That's not the system rules! So unless you've researched 100's of past results with what you are doing you are likely to turn a profitable system into a losing one . Do not try and fix what is not broken . If you don't stick to the rules of a system then it is no longer a system.

[ProPocer]

No I know, I still layed the horse, any other betting in the race is separate- fun bets

[Win2Win]

Keep a running total of 'fun bets'. If you want to take gambling serious you soon get bored of them when you see the losses mount up!!!

[ProPocer]

Hehe. Can I ask, do you lay to liabilities or stakes? Any idea which works best of the two?

[Win2Win]

I lay to stakes, but if it's a odds on horse I use liabilty of the stake

Don't swap and change the normal bets, just keep on with what you decide at the start. Which one is more profitable? Shouldn't really be that much differnce over all.

[ProPocer]

What has the largest swing been in these, if you can remember? ie collective number of pts lost before an upturn...?

[Win2Win]

Around 50% of the bank, which isn't unusual for laying ... but it adds a bit of spice to it

[ProPocer]

I read a few pages back into the turbo lay thread that you've had two 100pt swings?

[Win2Win]

Yep, but if you've built your bank up and reduced stakes then 100pts would be less of a hit than someone just starting out, especially with a small bank.

[ProPocer]

One, more thing, for future reference for setting liability laying to SP, what is the average price lay?

[Win2Win]

List 1: Average odds 6.62 ... Average Win odds 5.49
List 2: Average odds 5.81 ... Average Win odds 4.34
List 3: Average odds 6.13 ... Average Win odds 5.07

[ProPocer]

Is there statisticlly a better time of the year than other times for this system? Get the strong impression I joined at bang on the wrong time OR is it not a system you can back check through the years using say RSB or whatever software you use?