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Thread: My betting attempt! (blog)

  1. #1

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    My betting attempt! (blog)

    I'm going to (hopefully consistantly) keep a bit of a diary in here on my experiences with the win2win selections and see if I can't at least match the profit/loss pts that the main man himself achieves.

    I'm unsure as to whether I will be able to do them race by race. I really doubt there's a single member who can tbh. Unless there's any who make their entire living through it then most people will be having to work a proper job throughout the day. I'm fortunate enough that I make my living from online poker so I can be at the pc at all times. But as full concentration is usually needed placing so many bets through the day then it's still going to be very difficult. Will see how it pans out.

    So, starting with yesterday, I started a bit late and didn't get every horse on (still getting used to the mayhem) but ended up with a 7.2pt losss for the day. (if calculated correctly). I am staking to £10 levels, which ultimately means my bank should ideally be £1k (I think).

    I will be TRYING to make some price decisions with some of the races, ie last night I scanned through the selections and cards and decided to lay Lightning Rod in the 2.30 at Muss right there and then, taking pretty much 2/1. He was 2/1F last time out and fell, or unseated, which didn't give me much reason to believe he would go off any shorter coming back, especially with Woody Waller looking the form horse that should defo get backed in. Well it's all abandoned now so whatevs.

    Only 1 meeting today so let's hope there's no pesky winners!!

    BANK: £928

    BTW, I worked out the profit/loss like this. Amount of lays done was 27. 20 lost and 7 won. So I take the number 27, minus 5% comms from 20 of those pts, well that's 1pt. So it's now 26pts, minus all the pts losses. So a horse wins at 6.0, I minus 5pts. Well I think that's right anyway.

    The prices I got on winners were:
    Piscean 5.1 (went off at 11/2 which I missed and had to get on in running, clearly as he was about to win )

    Emma's Gift: 8.8 (8/1 SP so not bad)

    Layline: I took 7.0 a bit early not thinking it would be backed. (9/2 SP )

    Starkie 3.7 (5.2 SP)
    Face Value 3.2 (7/4 SP)

    Palmyra 7.2 (11/2 SP)

    Burnhope 5.2 (4/1 SP)

    So that's 26pts - 4.1 - 7.8 - 6 - 2.7 - 2.2 - 6.2 - 4.2 =



  2. #2

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    Layed (laid?) 4 horses today, one of them twice. Two of them were odds on shots so it didn't look good. The first one was tough to watch as the selection was absolutely cruising out in front with the rest of the field going hell for leather and looking all but beat. Until 2nd fave came out of nowhere and the favourite just failed to pick up when asked. He drew level in the last nano yard and it ended up a dead heat! So half a pt for that, except it was actually 0.415 of a pt for whatever reason that is. The final odds on shot obliged nicely and got beat convincingly by 2nd fave again, along with the others to make a clean sheet.

    P/L TODAY: +4.2
    TOTAL P/L: -3
    BANK: £970



  3. #3

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    Hmm just woke up late and missed the first lay which was successful @ 4/1 Gonna take some getting used to this remembering to do stuff



  4. #4

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    Just remember that you have to get up to go for a when playing poker

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    Keith Driscoll - Administrator
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  5. #5

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    I'm usually playing til 4-6am so getting up before 2pm is unusual



  6. #6

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    Definitely picked the wrong week to stop injecting heroin into my eye ball!!!



  7. #7

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    Not many selections so any winners can make a day seem a lot worse than it would on a busy day, and even less bets for Tuesday.

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    Keith Driscoll - Administrator
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  8. #8

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    An utterly horrendous day for me. 24 lays with 10 winners .

    Not sure what's going on with my calcs but can't see to get them to add up. I worked it out to a 19.4pt loss but I lost £213 (£10 per stake) for all my lays. Not alot but ultimately a 2pt difference so going to have to go over another 12 times to figure it out

    Found an extra lay so that's 1pt made up, so -18.4.



  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Win2Win View Post
    Not many selections so any winners can make a day seem a lot worse than it would on a busy day, and even less bets for Tuesday.
    Indeed, fortunately my job teaches you to deal with variance of the worst kind. I'll battle on thru.



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    Right, gotta start this again! Knew I was doing something wrong which I won't divulge because it's a pathetic schoolboy error lol. But let's just say Keith must have been wondering how the hell I only lost 7pts on Saturday when he lost 15!!

    So on Saturday I layed 31 selections. That obv includes when one horse is layed twice/thrice etc. 7 won, all single selections, no double or triple whammies on this day. This resulted in an 11.4pt loss. Still better than the boss got so happy with that

    Sat's P/L: -11.4pts
    BANK: £886


    Sunday was correct. +4.2pts


    BANK: £928



    And for today's correction:

    TODAY'S P/L: -28.54pts!!!
    TOTAL P/L: -35.74
    BANK: £642.50
    COMPARISON: win2win -34


    Nigh on a 40% loss in 3 days. I'm sure there's been worse but am unsure whether to halve the stakes now and miss out on a more rapid come back for the sake of safety.



  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by ProPocer View Post
    Still better than the boss got so happy with that .
    I'm not

    -28 is about 'average' bad ...... You can get a rare -40

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  12. #12

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    Today I've downloaded the BetAngel trial but as I've yet to figure out how to use it I first of all decided to experiment with BF SP. With my usual stake being £10 I've just been going for what liability would be to a £10 stake at the odds the horse is on offer when I look. So an hour before the race if it was 5.2 I'd lay to SP at £40 liability. Then whichever way it goes in the market can mean good or bad things so I'd imagine everything evens out either way.
    And well, after just a few races I can honestly say it does a **** sight better job at getting prices than I do!!! What's weird is it doesn't show the bet being placed or anything, all that happens is the race goes off and next thing you see the SP price that you got. Really don't know how it does it but it's like it's taking a price you otherwise couldn't get at that precise time if you were doing it manually. This WOULD be absolute perfection if it wasn't for the cut-off region horses. For example: Laura's Bairn won @ 10/1 and was a lay under 12.0 only. Not long before the race it was sitting on 12.0 and there's no way you can put a near cut-off lay on to SP, because in most cases will it drift over the cut-off making it a non selection. I guess you could say the advantage of this is that if a near cut-off horse drifts then it's more likely to lose so getting it on at 15 or something SHOULDN'T see too many mishaps. And if it's backed in to win , well at least you got the shortest price! Anyway I didn't even look at the horse near the off, my eyes were fixed on the other 2 horses as I'd already put it out of mind and forgotten about it so I've no idea if the BF price was layable or not. I missed it so it's a result!



  13. #13

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    The 3.30 odds on lay was a classic example of male > female bullying! Macy Anne goes into the lead in the final furlong, Luke then wanders over and bullies the girl clean out of the race...can't rely on a woman can ya!



  14. #14

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    Drifting out and assuming its losing without long terms stats is a very dangerous assumption. In many long distance races the jocky rests the horse for the final effort odds can easily drift to 15 and 20 in such races.

    Marcus

    I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question


  15. #15

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    Another bad day, but bettter than it should have been thanks to missing Laura's Bairn!!
    9 lays, 3 winners. Laying to liabilities and mixing up the liability somewhat I ended up with a 4.4pt loss. To the usual levels it would have been -3pts.

    TODAY: -3
    TOTAL: -38.74
    £1k STARTING BANK: £612.50
    COMPARISON: win2win -34



  16. #16

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    Today was going swimmingly until the last race. Fortunately I completely butchered it not realising the time, had to try getting them all on in running and ended up getting the winner on at 2.2 lol. Sadly I didn't get the other 3 lays on though but still ended up losing less than if I'd done it before the race. I also ended up laying Rightcar twice for some reason when I sholdn't have, which turned out to be very lucky as he lost by only a neck!! I'll record results how it should have been though.

    12 lays, 1 winner.

    TODAY: +1.45
    WIN2WIN: +5
    TOTAL: -37.29
    £1K STARTING BANK: £627
    WIN2WIN COMPARE: -29

    SYSTEM BANKERS: +1.9



  17. #17

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    Siiiiiiiigh. Yet another day which started out great and ended badly, just when you're anticipating that so crucially needed clean sweep at the moment

    Worst of it was, Lisseton Cross won at 11/2, on which I got a cracking price of 7.8 Mind you another winner over in Meydan in Mendip went off at 10/1 yet an easy 9.8 was available right before the race. Had it been racing over here 10/1 probably would have been to high to get on Swings n roundabouts, preferably less swings pleeeeeeeeeease.

    Let's see if I can get this right first time today 27 lays 4 winners.

    TODAY: -4.36
    win2win: -9 ?
    TOTAL: -41.65
    £1k STARTING BANK: £583.40
    win2win compare: -38


    So more than 40% of bank gone. Still gritting my teeth and sticking with £10 stakes more or less, but that's now TWO % of the bank. Pretty risky for laying so I'm led to believe.



  18. #18

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    First half of the day a disaster. 40% of bank remaining. If it goes I'll be quitting.



  19. #19

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    39 lays, 5 winners, but unfortunately all well above the average winning price. All but one of them were at this weirdo Kempton AW meeting but for NHF racing only. Not sure when this started but surely there can't be long term statistics for it?

    The total winners SP came to 30/1. The total prices I got was 34.06 so not bad overlay considering they were well above average odds. Well do the math on that and it should make -1.75pts. With slightly differing stakes/liabilities I actually got -2.32.

    TODAY -2.32
    TOTAL -43.97
    £1k STARTING BANK £560.20



    I'm going to have to start leaving orders at the beginning of the day, just before racing starts or something. They require just far too much attention to do them live and for the small money to be made whilst building banks they're just not worth the near on heart attacks watching triple lays losing by a gnat on a horse nose nearly every race, especially as it's actually less stressful playing poker for 10x the size of the swings somehow lol. As I can't get the hang of any software that "apparently" automates betting for you, I'm simply going to have to leave orders based on all the prices available at the time of placing bets. I am going to experiment with placing the order on whatever the BACK bet is, so usually one tick better than the current lay price and see how many get matched. Obviously there will be an exposure problem if my bank can't take it all so maybe I'll have to put half on and do half later. The same goes for the night racing. It will involve plenty of phone alarm setting as otherwise I'll forget it all lol. So, it looks like I'll probably miss a few doing this method, some cases will get terrible prices but hopefully some cases will get great ones and it HOPEFULLY all evens out.



  20. #20

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    NHF races on the AW have been going for years ... just not meetings with ALL NHF races, but they have also happened before.

    Having multiple heart attacks during racing is all part of the fun

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  21. #21

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    Mm there's a reason amateur riders are called AMATEUR! ing useless!!!



  22. #22

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    Phew! What a day! Think we had about 750 lays to do Ok slight exaggeration. Let's see if I tot all this up right.

    76 lays saw 11 winners. I'm slightly annoyed with myself because this should have been 10 winners with an extra 8.2pts added to the total- for the simple reason that whilst I'm supposed to backing the system bankers, I completely forgot them until the very last one (which was a handy 11/4 winner), but the first one who won @ 7/2 was also a turbo lay which meant I'd have ignored the lay to back it. Oh well, live n learn.

    I mixed up between stakes and liabilities and ended up with a pts total of 17.43.

    TODAY +17.43
    win2win compare+14
    TOTAL -26.54
    win2win total -24
    £1K STARTING BANK £734.50



  23. #23

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    A Profits a profit, but you should really start with smaller stakes while you get all the errors out of the way..... and you think that's a busy day... wait until next Saturday

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    Keith Driscoll - Administrator
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  24. #24

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    A day of profit today so perhaps the wrong day to reduce stakes I decided to bet to 1% of the bank until back to the £1k start where I will keep stakes to levels whilst in profit until bank has grown significantly, probably 100%, but while in loss will stake to 1%. not sure if that would work or not. Obviously it's cushioning for losing times but then recovery is slower. Hmmm.

    Anyway today I layed 27 though it reeeaaaaly didn't feel like that many at all. I guess it wouldn't after a 76 lay day!!

    There were 3 winners. My PL worked out to +12.5pts.

    TODAY +12.5
    win2win +10
    TOTAL: -14.04
    win2win compare -14
    £1K STARTING BANK: £822







  25. #25

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    One thing with reducing stakes is the mindset that you are reducing profits. This is not the case, you are doing it to protect the bank from being wiped out. If what you are doing has long term profits then then the bank will steadily climb

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  26. #26

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    Yeh sure, I'm just impatient I haven't started them at the optimal time life wise because I've got 6 months rent in advance to pay at the end of this month plus I've just bought a mortorbike for nigh on £3k so am just being steady for now. Hopefully in a month or less I can inject more into the bank and get the stakes upto £12-£15.



  27. #27

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    The day started very promising until the final lay for me won, Berlusca. I hate laying anything Kieron Fallon's on I left the last race for betangel to deal with, got home and found it had layed nothing which was good because an 11/1 winner came in. Presumably everything was over the cut-off although one horse was 8/1 SP and I left the order at 11 so unsure how it missed.

    18 lays, 4 winners (2 an odds on double).

    TODAY +4.5
    win2win +3
    TOTAL -9.54
    £1K STARTING BANK £858
    win2win compare -11

    SYSTEM BANKER TOTAL +12.9 (3% bank £430)





  28. #28

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    Today I placed all bets using betangel but unfortunately didn't get past 4pm. Well not sure how unfortunate as unsure what difference that would have made. I was expecting to be home by then to do the rest but wasn't so...

    16 lays, 1 winner.

    TODAY +9.75
    win2win +14
    TOTAL +0.21
    £1K STARTING BANK £936
    win2win compare +3






  29. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by ProPocer View Post
    I was expecting to be home by then to do the rest but wasn't so...
    Don't worry .... that still happens to me

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  30. #30

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    You may have seen this in the forum elsewhere. With system betting there is an optimal percentage of the bank to bet each time on a horse. This optimal percentage for most systems on each individual bet (i.e place a bet it loses take new bet size as 3% of current bank value) mostly turns out to be in the 2.5% to 3.5% range so using 3% roughly maximising your return on your betting investments. If you go outside of these values in the long run you will dramictically reduce your potential profit.

    THIS does not apply to laying systems, care to add more info to this Keith?

    Marcus

    I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question


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