Not often these days that Mordin & my figs fall out of synch & most often the case when they do is down to his use of Sectional Timing. I been meaning to start a thread to keep a record of such cases for some time & what with new jump season ahead, now would seem as good as time as any....
First off, a Mordin to Official Rating Converter:
45/180
44/176
43/172
42/168
41/164 Gold Cup Class
40/160 Gr2 weak Gr1
39/156 Gr1 Novice
38/152 Solid Gr3
37/148 Listed / Weak Gr3
36/144
POSTED ON NOVEMBER 5, 2012
MY TENT OR YOURS AND TAQUIN DU SEUIL TOP CLASS NOVICES
It's hard to know just how good very lightly raced horses are. So once or twice a season the connections of two such horses fail to avoid each other. The result is that we see two genuinely top class horses contest a minor race.
My ratings say this happened in a class 3 novice hurdle at Ascot last Saturday where two horses duelled from a long way to pull clear of the field.
The winner was MY TENT OR YOURS (39) who was always cruising while racing a little keenly in the rear. He began to make ground in impressive fashion after four out and looked set to coast by runner up Taquin Du Seuil as he moved up to him approaching the last. But the Taquin Du Seuil is clearly a smart horse in his own right and rallied as the winner headed him.
A measure of just how much the first two accelerated to take each other on can be gleaned from sectional times. These show that the field got from the first jump to four out 5.1 seconds later than they did in the big handicap hurdle earlier on the same card over the same trip. From there they covered the remaining six furlongs 3.2 seconds faster. When I adjust my ratings to reflect this it points to a Grade 1 class performance by the first two across the line.
My Tent Or Yours is a barrel-chested sort that has the build of a two and a half mile steeplechaser. He's a good actioned horse and has been steered away from soft ground except for his debut where he hosed up on good to soft in a Bumper. My bet is that long term he will prove best over two and a half miles and may dislike soft and heavy going. But I'd be more sure of the former idea than the latter.
The acceleration that My Tent Or Yours showed to gain ground quickly and easy just as the pace was quickening suggests to me that he'd be an interesting candidate for a valuable long distance flat race next Summer. Trainer Nicky Henderson has a remarkable record with jumpers he targets such races with.
At some point the connections of My Tent Or Yours are going to have to decide whether to keep him over two miles as a novice hurdler or step him up to two and a half miles. He has such pace it will be very tempting to persevere over two miles. But I have a maxim that a horse will perform best at the outermost limits of its stamina. At shorter trips it can get outpaced. Over longer it's in danger of not lasting home in a truly run race. For this reason I think My Tent Or Yours should try and emulate his stablemate Simonsig who won the big two and a half mile hurdles at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals last year. Next season, when he will surely be switched to chasing, his obvious target would be the Jewson.
Runner up TAQUIN DU SEUIL (39) is a different sort of horse. First of all he shows knee action, so I'd bet on him proving best with cut in the ground. Secondly he looks built for at least two and a half miles.
In the early stages Taquin Du Seuil was having trouble getting his eye in at the jumps. He hesitated over two hurdles and over jumped another two. One settled down he raced in second place, kicked on entering the straight and then staged a big rally when the winner went by after the last.
Taquin Du Seuil is tall enough for chasing and is the first foal of a dam that won over fixed brush hurdles in France. He showed smart form in long distance Tierce/Premier handicaps in France over two miles, finishing second to Listed winner Inside Man and third to Group 1 performer Tac De Boistron.
Race times suggest the going was good to firm at Ascot, so it's clear Taquin Du Seuil can handle such a surface. The race also made it clear that he's very effective over two miles, even when the runners accelerate sharply in the closing stages on fast ground. However his physique says so clearly he wants longer distances and softer ground that I have to believe that will prove to be the case.
Long term Taquin Du Seuil is tall enough to jump a fence. Meanwhile the Challow Hurdle at Newbury next month looks an obvious target.
Further back in the field we had a very interesting runner in the French raider WETAK (28).
Recently there has been a big increase in the number of British horses running on the flat and over jumps in France in an effort to boost the earning of their owners and trainers through the much higher prize money available across the channel. It's unusual to see the traffic going the other way. Yet here we had Wetak running in a race worth only a third as much as his latest win in September and a tenth as much as the one he contested on his last outing.
Wetak has won all three times he's run over distances short of 2m 5f over fences in France, though he got disqualified for bringing one of his rivals down on the flat around halfway in one of them. He's also run second to the smart pair Badoudal (a Grade 1 second ) and Ozamo (12 length Listed winner) in longer chases. He's yet to score in ten hurdles starts and one on the flat. Though I have to add he has the build to do well over the smaller jumps and has run a close second to a dual Listed winner over fixed brush hurdles
As is often the case with horses switching from chases to hurdles Wetak gave the jumps plenty of daylight. He made the running till headed by Taquin Du Seuil entering the straight, weakened quite rapidly but still ran a fair race. If he runs again in Britain, over fences or hurdles, especially in a handicap where he would get in off a low weight I'll be very interested in Wetak's chances. I should say though that it generally takes two runs for a chaser to adapt back to hurdles, so I'd like to see him go back to the bigger jumps or have another try over timber before risking my money on him. http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm