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Thread: A potential system

  1. #1

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    A potential system

    In my search for betting systems I came accross the following :-

    RULE 1
    Never bet on “Maiden” races.
    RULE 2
    Never bet on “Apprentice” races.
    RULE 3
    Never bet on “Handicap” races with more than 16 runners.

    And a clever staking plan.
    Depending on the odds of the favourite horse in the race you will bet
    on the first 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 horses to win:
    Odds Of The Number Of Horses
    Favourite Horse To Bet On
    3.00 – 3.99 2 horses
    4.00 – 4.99 3 horses
    5.00 – 5.99 4 horses
    6.00 – 6.99 5 horses
    7.00 – 8.00 6 horses
    You will always bet the same amount of money on each race and
    divide it equally over the number of horses you are allowed to bet on
    according to the above table.

    Is there anyway of back testing it?

    I have been forward testing it with a variation - 30pence bets on WillHill if the Fav is <=3 start the above plan using the 2nd Fav. 3weeks of testing on nearly every race show that it loses money very slowly which has me thinking that with a set of filters like courses where winning Favs are high it might be a workable system.

    In case someone asks "what if the 2nd Fav is less that 3.00?" No bet on the race. If more than one horse has the same odds and is not going to be covered by the number of bets is open to discussion, no bet is probably the best answer, but what does the math actually say?

    Marcus

    I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question


  2. #2

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    No real way of testing it as you'd have to print off the results for the first 6 winners of every race included and then do it manually The problem I see is that the higher the price of the Fav then the more likely the winner will come from anywhere in the field.

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  3. #3

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    Oh well - that is sort of good news and bad news. Good that it is not easily tested, bad that I now know I have to start going back through Timeform results and track the BSP and ISP values

    The testing seems to show that with a couple of filters it could be profitable. Anybody got a program to database the Timeform results?

    Marcus

    I believe in the Mathematics of large numbers or ask you the occasional dumb question


  4. #4

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    You can ask for individual stats in our new stats request category

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    Keith Driscoll - Administrator
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