new to site. looking to share informatrion i hear

[Godspot]

Following Danedream’s emphatic and impressive win in yesterday’s Arc, I think the time is right to take an interest in LUCAS CRANACH for next month’s Melbourne Cup..

Each to their own & all & very good luck to you with that but the closest I'll get is maybe look up the result!

If there is one thing I've just learnt again from Danedream's win is that I seriously need to draw in my net - not cast it further afield & that it is a lot easier to find a horse in a donkey race than to try & predict which one of the many on-the-upgrade types is more likely to be suited by the conditions (which we're usually unlikely to know until after the event anyway) of a hyper competitive event, especially ones over random CD's run once a year.

There's a blog out there called Narrow The Field, actually a website now, which you might like....

[lowey100]

Soft ground is what Kirthill needs to be at his best, He has won on good to soft. but the easy ground will be in his favour . Fallon back on tomorrow, can only be a positive, as he had choice of either Cumani horses. In what looks a very competive event, im hoping for a good price and a big race from Kirthill. if it comes up soft tomorrow at newbury, i will be a major player on this horse. Good to soft and i will be having a smaller wager.

Kirthill at last showing some potential, even on ground he would not like, as was shown in last furlong where he started to wander. but still a great perfomance. This horse has got a future, hopefully getting the ground he wants.Yesterday i got all ive lost on him this season, and made a healthy profit too, sadly had it been soft i was having major play.

[Godspot]

- there should be another day for Kirthill in a big h'cap with Fallon low weight but he'll always be a short price & overbet - I'll reserve judgement on the pattern class until he does that -

Wins Saturday K Fallon 8 8 - 3lb within his lowest riding weight this last 12 months & 11/2 a fair price but dreadful on the clock.

[Godspot]

Following Danedream’s emphatic and impressive win in yesterday’s Arc, I think the time is right to take an interest in LUCAS CRANACH for next month’s Melbourne Cup. Lucas Cranach was fifth behind Danedream in the Group One Grosser Preis Von Berlin last time, but he gave the impression he should have finished second, held up in last place some way off what was a very steady gallop, his rider almost certainly overdoing the waiting tactics. He was at least ten lengths behind the leader turning into the short straight (only 500m from the finish), and a good five lengths behind Danedream at the time, and although he is out of view on the video footage for most of the home straight, it’s clear that he finished very strongly, not really much further behind Danedream than he was at the top of the straight. He has yet to race beyond 1m4f, but has repeatedly shaped as if a step up in trip would bring about further improvement, often finishing strongly, such as on his previous start in the Group Two Grosser Preis Von Hamburg, the first under pressure, but really finding his stride in the closing stages to sweep past his rivals and win going away, his ever-increasing winning margin of three and a half lengths remarkable considering he only led in the final 150 yards (both his last two runs are on Youtube, incidentally).

He is being prepared for the Melbourne Cup, for which he has an attractive-looking weight of 53.5kg, by legendary Australian trainer Lee Freedman, who came over to Newmarket to oversee the horse’s initial preparations (Lucas Cranach is now in Australia and has reportedly settled in well). Freedman has won the Melbourne Cup five times, and was trainer of Makybe Diva for two of her wins, and even though the Group One wins haven’t been flowing in recent years (and Freedman’s brother Anthony recently took over the license), a career tally of 124 Group One wins tells its own story. Lucas Cranach has been a major market mover in Australia for the Melbourne Cup, and whilst ante-post bets obviously come with risks attached and much will depend on his prep race in either the Geelong Cup or the Caulfield Cup, there’s definitely a chance his current odds of 20-1 will be much shorter if he makes it to the race; he’s a fair bit shorter with many Australian bookmakers at present (around 12-1 or 14-1).

Some guy I follow on Twitter - after a process of elimination says this is the one that ticks the most boxes, has a decent draw too, so well done for picking that out a month ago!