Reducing the overlay

[schopenhauer]

For the lay systems I use I have to take the overlay to an average of 10-12%. But at the moment I am far above that mark. Are there some tips to keep the overlay down? A good time for placing the lays?

[Win2Win]

It's nothing to do with time of placing the bet, as in 2 mins before the off for every race, it's a case of watching the market and deciding which way your selection is likely to move. This is basically what you do when trading, and it can take months of experience monitoring every race before you get the hang of it. For newbies just put the bets on whenever, it does not matter, learn how to profit first before looking for tweaks to maximise profit

[schopenhauer]

But hopefully the overbet is not that high that there is no profit in the end.

I calculated the following so far:


AW Fillies (lay system):

overall ISP: 4,87
overall personally: 5,62
overbet: 15,40%

winner ISP: 3,67
winner personally: 3,97
overbet: 8,17%


Flat Lay'em:

overall ISP: 5,78
overall personally: 6,45
overbet: 11,59%

winner ISP: 5,19
winner personally: 5,96
overbet: 14,84%

[Win2Win]

Are you taking odds or BSP? 15% is fine anyway, you'd find it difficult to get over 20% unless you're totally , and you won't get it below 10% due to the average price being high.

[schopenhauer]

I take the odds on Betfair about 5 - 0 minute(s) before the off.

If I want to take the BSP I have to lay to a certain liability, right?

I thought about laying to a certain liability but then the overbet influences the 84/88% of the bets (the losers that make the money) instead of 16/12% which are the winners, right?

[Win2Win]

Laying to a fixed stake or liability over the long term doesn't effect profits that much, you just choose which way is the easiest for you. As I say, you should only worry about the overbet further down the line when stakes are much higher and that 0.1% makes a realistic difference

[schopenhauer]

If I wanted to lay to BSP with liability what would be the right percentage for the stakes?

Do you know if the racingpost forecast odds are really close to the ISP? Then those can give me a good idea of when to place my bet.

[Win2Win]

To work out liabialty multiply your normal stake by 11

RP F/c odds are pretty accurate, especially the night before. If you can check odds on the day of racing use odds comparison, such as my new software Odds Comparison Software