Win2Win Racing System Pack 1

[schopenhauer]

Are the results in the spreadsheet for the laying system based on only using the betting forecast (Racing Post?) or are the qualifiers selected with bookmaker prices a few minutes before the off what you call the preferred method these days (which bookmaker?)?

Thank you.

[Win2Win]

I generally use the price on Betfair a couple of mins before the off, although on days this is not possible I use the Racing Post. The results in the spreadsheet on those two mentioned so it doesn't really matter long term, you will only get the odds ones between the two that won't agree on a qualifier so don't worry about them.

[schopenhauer]

And two more questions concerning the laying system.

1. What about horses where you have the following: "There are no past perfomances on the Racing Post database for this horse." Can they qualify due to rule 4?

2. What's the reason for the different stake percentages and cutoffs for the laying system in this System Pack and the Flat Lay'em?


Thank you.

[Win2Win]

1. If the RP has no information then the horse is taken as a debutant.

2. Staking/Cut-offs are based on strike rate, average odds, etc. So they can differ for each system win or lay.

[schopenhauer]

1. And these debutants can qualify for the laying system because you can say they never run which are more than xxx days?

[Win2Win]

No they can't qualify as never run is not >XXX days is it? They must have run XXX days or more ago

[schopenhauer]

Okay thank you that was the absolutely clear answer I needed.

[Win2Win]

Not sure how we got to 'XXX'

[schopenhauer]

Hopefully the last question.

What about races where the number of runners is reduced and goes below the "number of runners rule" due to non-runners? Are they still qualifying?

I checked some races from the spreadsheet. There it seemed that these races don't qualify. But I was too lazy to check them all.

[Win2Win]

Well you need to decide whether to rerun the system or keep it as is in such cases. Whatever you decide you then do the same thing every time this scenario appears .... which way you decide to go is up to you, but doing nothing is easier .... doing something makes the stats slightly more accurate though

[KC*]

Taking Betfair's SP is good for me due to putting them on the night before but the lay system the stakes are a MAX of 2% of the bank which is difficult to do or am I thick ?

The Betfair website gives you the following options when placing a bet at sp:-

SP Lay (Bet against)

Set Your Max Odds
Your Liability
Your Min Profit

I'm unable to control the STAKE as it ask's for 'Your Min Profit' and therefore it will take my max liability I put in and give me a higher profit when it loses (great) but if it wins I'll lose maximum liability.

Do you think this will make a huge difference considering the lay system stats are based on liabilities with a stake at a max of 2%.

I hope you can understand what I'm trying to explain

[KC*]

I am trying to resolve this myself ..... honest

I found this on Betfair's help pages.....

If I am laying at SP, how will I know how much I am risking?

If you are laying on the exchange at requested odds, you are asked to specify the backer's stake you would like to try to win and your liability is calculated for you.

With SP betting, layers are asked to specify a liability (rather than a backers stake) so that we can reserve in exposure the full amount that they may need to pay out. Layers at SP will therefore not necessarily know how much they could win until the start of the event. Backers at SP specify their stake as normal. This is reserved in exposure and matched at the off.

Therefore when trying to stick to the lay system rule 'Staking should be a MAX of 2% of the betting bank' is difficult when using BSP.

Therefore my question is will this LAY system still work using BSP ?

[Win2Win]

BSP only allow you to lay to a liabilty, and not a fixed stake. So if you are starting off with a small lay bank then it will be high risk staking at the start. You need to decide whether to accept the risk, reduce the cut-off to lower the risk while you kick-start the betting bank, or just lay horses when you have direct access to Betfair.

The latter option can be done via smartphones on Betfair Mobile version.

[KC*]

Thanks for the reply, i thought as much but just wanted confirmation.

[markrob]

Hi, just have a couple of questions about the lay system. I've been using it continuously for nearly 8 months now and I'm showing a profit of just over £2k (using 2% of a starting bank of £100), so I'm reasonably happy with the performance. However, Kempton up to now has been a drag on the System, showing a loss of about £1k. Is this likely to be a blip or should this track be avoided? Also, can tracks such as Laytown (although I think it's only once a year?) and Meydan be included in the System, provided the Racing Post gives a betting forecast for them? Cheers and many thanks.

[markrob]

Oops, I wish I'd kept up to date with this thread re the lay system as I've just read that horses that have not run before are not selections. This was a bit of a shock as other systems I've bought over many years always specified this as a rule so I mistakenly thought they would be included as selections. So I've been operating the system incorrectly for about 8 months and was just wondering if anyone knew how much this has affected my profit as I've not recorded which selections were having their first run?

[Win2Win]

Laytown is a one-off so not really reliable figures whether it is profitable or not, but either way it will have little impact on P/L figures as it was just -1pt this year.

Meydan has quite a bit of stats for it, and does prove profitable, although only a few points.

Just looked at the split stats for the tracks and Kempton hasn't done well this year, and last year was the lowest of all the tracks so if you wish to ignore Kempton then that shouldn't be a problem.

If you've made a mistake with the selection process and still made a decent profit don't bother looking back at what may or may not have been Use the profits to continue from now with the correct rules.

[markrob]

Many thanks for the info, I'm now facing a dilemma as to whether to drop Kempton from the selections and would appreciate some further advice so I can make a more informed decision. Is it possible to advise on following:
1) You say Kempton had the worst record of all the tracks last year but what sort of P/L figure was it?
2) What was Kempton's P/L for the previous years, presumably it has shown a reasonable profit over the years or you wouldn't have included it in the System?
3) Is Kempton now showing an overall profit or loss since the start of the System?
4) Do you know of any reason for Kempton's recent poor performance, as far as I know it is the same surface as the other AW tracks, except Southwell?
5) If you are using this System, have you dropped Kempton from your selection process?
Hope you can offer this further guidance as users of the System took another heavy blow at Kempton on Wed this week! Many thanks for your help.

[KC*]

Hope you can offer this further guidance as users of the System took another heavy blow at Kempton on Wed this week! Many thanks for your help.

I would like to say that I had 3 horses at Kempton on Weds (3rd) and all three lost their race, maybe you had 3 different qualifier's due to me using the Sporting Life.

Mine were:-

First Fast Now in the 17:40 5f Hcap
Shestheman in the 20:10 1m4f Hcap
Ereka in the 21:10 7f Hcap.

Did you have completely different qualifier's ?

[markrob]

I had 4 qualifiers that day: 17.40K First Fast Now, Perfect Honour (1st 6/1), 18.40K Inpursuitoffreedom (1st 8/1), 9.10K Ereka. I use the Racing Post website after 7pm the evening before racing. I believe that was the site suggested in the System rules so unsure why you use the Sporting Life site?

[Win2Win]

Sorry for the delay replying, I'm not sure why your posts ended up in the moderation queue... it's usually only spammers that end up in there!

From 2008-2011 Kempton had a 115pt profit, this year I'm down about 38pts, but nicely in profit overall on the system. I'm still doing Kempton, but I'll review that at the end of the year as it could still come back to profit or near break even in which case it'll be left as is.

As for the reason for Kempton having a downward year I don't really have solid proof of anything, but it could be weather related as the track rides slower the more rain it gets and that can bugger up horses that come off the pace.

Lay betting will have days with big hits, just look at the Turbo Lays on the forum, but they eventually always come back into profit.

Number of qualifiers can differ for each person depending on when bets are placed and what cut-off you get.

[markrob]

Many thanks for the advice Keith, I shall stick with Kempton for the time being in the hope of a turnaround. I've committed to the System for a minimum of 5 years, unless there is a complete meltdown of course, so I'm trusting it will perform as well as in the past in the long run!

[markrob]

Hi Keith, just wanted to review with you the fillies aw lays system as I've been using it every day for 12 months now. Although I have found the System okay the profits have been significantly held back by results at 2 tracks, as follows:

Kempton - very worryingly showing a large loss, it seems I build up my bank at the other UK/Irish tracks then lose it again when Kempton comes about. Very frustrating! I can't see why this track is performing so poorly as I can't find any information on the track surface being changed so one would think it should perform similar to the other polytrack courses? What would you advise, how are you tackling this problem?

Meydan - Showing significant losses but low number of selections (only 15 for 12 months). However a high % of winners (around 22%) at highish prices seems to suggest will continue losing. I understand this is a tapeta surface so perhaps that is the reason for the poor results? Should this track be avoided, any advice much appreciated.

Grateful for your valuable advice and thanks for all your help.

[Win2Win]

I'm slighty up at Meydan in that time but the odds can swing a bit.

Dundalk has been very good to me, along with Lingfield.

Kempton was bad last year, and Wolves not that good either, but over all the tracks I'm still showing a profit. October last year done most of the damage for me on those tracks, and sticks out like a sore thumb ... and I have no idea myself why the form completely vanished for that month.

The previous year Kempton was break even for me, and wolves profited nicely, so based on 2 years of data you could drop Kempton but no others. As long as you are comfortable with it if Kempton proves to be profitable this year then take it out the system and leave it out.

Kempton has also got off to a crap start this year though

[Win2Win]

One other thing, you could switch to 50%, 25%, etc stakes on Kempton if your worried about maybe missing out on a turnaround, otherwise 0%

[barneymather]

As I don't have time to rate races for System Pack 1 during the day, I have to make selections the night before and have been using the Racing Post for the forecast.

However, they've just put their basic monthly membership up to £14.50 - not a fortune but considering it was only £8.67 when I joined them in August 2011, this is one hell of an increase in such a short space of time - almost doubling in 18 months!

As this is just blatant profiteering and I have no use for the so-called 'extra services' the Racing Post provides, can anyone suggest another forecast to use which is available the night before racing?

[TooTall]

As I don't have time to rate races for System Pack 1 during the day, I have to make selections the night before and have been using the Racing Post for the forecast.

However, they've just put their basic monthly membership up to £14.50 - not a fortune but considering it was only £8.67 when I joined them in August 2011, this is one hell of an increase in such a short space of time - almost doubling in 18 months!

As this is just blatant profiteering and I have no use for the so-called 'extra services' the Racing Post provides, can anyone suggest another forecast to use which is available the night before racing?

sporting life have a forcast the night before dont no how diffrent it is to the racing post though. I havnt run any systems for 2 years

I have just cancelled my membership also complete rip of 14 quid a month and even then that doesnt give you acsess to the whole site

[TheGoodGuy]

What type of forecast are you after?
Odds forecast or written forecast ie Spotlight?

As TooTall has said, Sporting Life has a forecast available the night before, as does http://www.irishracing.com/

[TooTall]

What type of forecast are you after?
Odds forecast or written forecast ie Spotlight?

Ada what sites do you use for horse racing form and general info i have been using the sporting life website for the last week not getting on well with it.

Being very lazy here but is there a list of simalar websites

[TheGoodGuy]

Ada what sites do you use for horse racing form and general info i have been using the sporting life website for the last week not getting on well with it.

Being very lazy here but is there a list of simalar websites

Sporting Life http://www.sportinglife.com/
IrishRacing.com http://www.irishracing.com/

I don't find the forecasts offered by these two (above) the night before very accurate when applying them to systems.

Depending on the race, sometimes Betfair can give a fairly accurate forecast the night before. http://www.betfair.com/sport

Oddschecker is also worth a look. Not always much good the night before, but can be very useful on the day. http://www.oddschecker.com/

The other one I sometimes use is the William Hill betting site. If you're into written forecasts you can get the Racing Post's Spotlight verdict/forecast for each horse on this site. http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb