Mug OUFC's Really Crap Non League bets

[Mug OUFC]

******* right it did Better than i did - one of three for me

Im done with over/under 2.5 goals now - im taking skittle advice and leaving it alone its too unpredictable

Heartfelt apologies if i put you off bets monty, i did warn you my strike rate is unpredictable

Oxford were a close run thing..alty equalised late on to make it 1-1 and were on top therafter looked like we'd blown it again, thankfully two late goals won it.

[Mug OUFC]

Im confused about histon. how can a team win 3 on the bounce, two away to good conference opposition, and then lose at home to a team who havent won for time and so far have only beat the divisions whipping boys?

[monty]

******* right it did Better than i did - one of three for me

Heartfelt apologies if i put you off bets monty, i did warn you my strike rate is unpredictable

Don't Worry mate! I done the double that I posted, so that helped me...

Mug OFC

What do you think of this double? I don't like betting in International matches, so I'm thinking about sticking with these two homes.

Crawley v’s Droylsden ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

Aldershot v’s Northwich ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm

The price for the double is currently around 2.78 @ Betfair

As for over and under bets, I never seem to call it right either, so your probably your right to give it a miss from now on, unless your really confident that a game will have a few goals.

[monty]

Im confused about histon. how can a team win 3 on the bounce, two away to good conference opposition, and then lose at home to a team who havent won for time and so far have only beat the divisions whipping boys?

That's betting for you mate! I had the same problem last night with my Limerick bet. Going by my ratings Limerick should have hammered Monaghan but they lost 2-0 and for some mental reason the Irish games have been flinging out some crazy results over the last 3-4 weeks. I'm thinking about leaving them alone and sticking with my Scottish picks, as I trust the Scottish teams more, probably because I know more about those teams.

[Mug OUFC]

Stevenage are 1.4 tomorrow

I mean im sure they will win, but 1.4 in this division

[monty]

Well, at that price I would normally give the game as miss. I've blown a couple of Monty Bets lately because of the low price. The last one was the other night with Finn Harps, who were my original pick but priced at 1.36 and I decided against it to go with the better priced Limerick. And guess what Finn Harps won and Limerick lost.
Merlin has the right idea on these low odds, he looks at these games as as easy profit, whether it's 36% 40% or whatever, it doesn't really matter to him. I think I should learn from my mistakes? and do what Merlin does, and that will start with a bet on Stevenage tomorrow.

[Mug OUFC]

Mmm dont get me wrong, I will be on it - stevenage are a very good team and stafford...arent. I remember a lot of similar priced favourites drawing and occasionally even losing last season though, and I wonder at what point the risk/return swings too far.

[Merlin]

I wonder at what point the risk/return swings too far.

When you get greedy...

[Merlin]

Like me

[Skittle]

Stevenage sounds like my type of bet. Will have a look later. Have to take my eldest back to Uni on Monday :D so I'm not sure of where I'll be. At least I get the car back on the drive.

[Mug OUFC]

Stevenage it is. As long as the world behaves itself they will win. What stake are we thinking then?

Stats
Bets 13
Won: 7
Staked 35 points
Profit (loss): 6.5 points

[Merlin]

Thats great profit...C......great stats........

Whats your stake range….? Is it 1-5 or 1- 10?

[Mug OUFC]

1-10

Ive been keeping stakes low while i build up a bit of confidence...

[Merlin]

In that case then...its possible that your previous bets havent been staked ¨properly¨……sort of……..kind of….know what I mean…..

Your results belie low confidence……start staking properly…..you will get a real picture emerging then….

[Mug OUFC]

STEVENAGE ARE IN TO 1.36 NOW

[Mug OUFC]

Just to illustrate my point about short priced favourites being a gamble in this division...last season there were 9 games with home favourites at 1.4 or below (bet365 prices). These finished:

4 home wins
4 draws
1 away win

level 1 point staking would have returned a 3.5 point loss

[Mug OUFC]

*sigh*

6 points stevenage @ 1.37

[MattR]

Good luck Mug.


Question is, is it that you aren't convinced they are going to win or the price that has been making you think twice?

Bottom line, if you think they will win then their price isn't going to effect their ability to beat Stafford.

[Mug OUFC]

A good question. Everything points to a win. BUT teams in this division...strange things happen all the time...less than 50% of selections under 1.4 won last year and odds of 1.4 imply probability of what...70%? 75%? I think it was Stevenage got beat 2-1 at home to st albans last year at odds of 1.4

I know the price doesnt affect the actual chances of victory...but i dont think this sort of price reflects the probability...and i also dont like the fact i have to lump on to get a return thats worth placing the bet in the first place?

I'm just wittering on arent I?

[Skittle]

Fancy the Burton game for a draw.

[MattR]

No, I can see where you're coming from on it. On recent past games in this league at this odds you'd have made profit laying the home team then with those stats and that's got to put doubt in your mind. Also the fact at this kind of level an injury or two can have a big impact unlike the Premier for example where a decent replacement will come in. Erm, now I think i'm putting you off

[Skittle]

Didn't do the draw, layed Torquay instead.

[Mug OUFC]

I quite fancied torquay for this one

Good job i kept me mouth shut :D

[Mug OUFC]

Oh :splapme

Ah ha ha ha just seen burtons first goal, ive had a **** day thats cheered me up CLOWN

[MattR]

Looking good MUG, 1 up and Stafford a man down :)

[monty]

2-0 now

[monty]

I haven't updated the Non League ratings yet, but I did put the weekends fixtures into my quick sheet, this is a sheet I use for leagues that I know nothing about, it gives out home -away and season form and picks out what it thinks are likely results. It's just a guide but can fling out a few winners every now and again. And just incase you want to know?, this is what it said about your league weekend fixtures.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Homes:

Stevenage v’s Stafford Rangers ……. Home Win (Monday) 19.45pm 3-0

Crawley v’s Droylsden ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm 5-0

Aldershot v’s Northwich ……. Home Win (Saturday) 3.00pm 5-0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Draws:

Gray’s Athletic v’s Forest Green …….Draw (Saturday) 3.00pm 0-1
Exeter v’s Cambridge Utd …….Draw (Saturday) 3.00pm 1-1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likely Away Wins:

Altrincham v’s Oxford Utd …….Away Win (Saturday) 3.00pm 1-3

To be honest with you mate there is not much of a surprise with that lot, but it could be worth doing the home treble? as all the home teams will be playing teams at the bottom of the table.

It's your league "C" so you can let me know what you think of this weekends picks.

Last night it gave out Stevenage and Burton, but I didn't bet on them as I had already done my own team Ayr Utd.

5 correct from 6 I wish it could do that every week...

[Mug OUFC]

2 games tomorrow night monty get on it :D

[Merlin]

Well done, C....

Keep taking that stuff….your cooking…….

[Mug OUFC]

I cant even pick a 1.36 shot without a good whinge