TWM's 0-0 system

[mathare]

I have decided to help Tom. God knows why, but I have.

I have a spreadsheet with the results from all English and Scottish league games for the last 12 complete seasons, so from the start of the Premiership basically. That's 77892 games. Of these 6220 have ended in 0-0 draws. That's a tad under 8%. Bear this in mind when looking at odds for a 0-0 draw.

The following teams have a relatively high percentage (>10% of home games) of 0-0 draws at home:
Airdrie / Airdrie Utd
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Barnet
Bath
Birmingham
Boston Utd
Bournemouth
Brentford
Bristol City
Bury
Cardiff
Clyde
Coventry
Doncaster
Dundee Utd
Everton
Grimsby
Hull
Kingstonian
Leeds
Norwich
Oxford Utd
Plymouth
Queens Park
Sheff Wed
Swansea
York

No team has over 15% of home games finishing as 0-0 draws.

Here is the list of away teams with over 10% of away games finishing as 0-0 draws
Accrington Stanley
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Bath
Blackburn
Bristol City
Bristol Rovers
Chelsea
Cheltenham
Chesterfield
Clydebank
Coventry
Dag & Red
Derby
Everton
Fulham
Gillingham
Hearts
Hull
Kettering
Leeds
Millwall
Plymouth
Rotherham
Sheff Utd
Slough
Stafford
Tranmere
Wycombe

I know these stats are the teams that have this result most and you are looking to lay the result but this is the sort of research you should do into a system. Does it happen in one division more or less than the others? Is one team good at getting late goals - essential to know if you plan at looking on in-running betting.

Note that some of the teams in the above list no longer play in the English league or Conference.

The data used to generate the above list can be supplied to anyone who wants it for researching football systems. I don't have the HT and FT scores, just FT unfortunately but I do have 12 seasons worth of data for 9 divisions. I use this data a lot to devise and test new systems, it's a valuable tool just like RSB and Racexpert are for horse racing systems.

If anyone wants the data, let me know. E-mail, PM, whatever.

[Jonny2621]

you certainly are the data man Mat, you must have a storming hard drive for all these spreadsheets LOL

If you dont mind i would love to play around with this data, i started researching somew data on home lay stats but its hard work indeed, this would be great

cheers
Jon

[vegyjones]

Personally, I don't feel that the meagre odds of a 0-0 draw
often warrant any money!

How often do we see 2 teams who are renowned for scoring goals
get together and produce a 0-0 draw!

Perhaps a better bet,
is to try and lay the "1 goal or above"
in the Number of Goals bets for a particular team!

Usually around 1.1-1.2, this can be very rewarding.
I will have a look into this and see if I can come up with a system that predicts the likeliness that a team won't score in a particular match...
then we can compare the 2 systems!

But... in this system you have odds between 5 and 10-1 that 1 team won't score.
Your system relies on 2 teams not scoring!

I will post some qualifiers on Saturday!!! :wink

If I can think of a system that incorporates "International teams"
I will do some of those, but as they are usually a mis-match,
odds might be terrible!!!!!!!

[phil_999]

Woah thats a lot of info!
Could I please have a copy of the data, got a few things I want to fool around with on these dark nights

Many thanks

Phil

[mathare]

I'll mention now so that everyone is aware that the spreadsheet is in Excel format and will be zipped because of the amount of data in it.

I've decided to be generous and as well as the raw data I have added in a summary sheet I put together. It breaks down all the results for each team into home and away, with separate stats for % win, draw & lose over the 12 season period along with goals for and against and some other such figures.

[IAN57]

Hi Mathare,
Could I possibly have a copy,or have you posted it somewhere?
Ian

[KC*]

If anyone wants the data, let me know. E-mail, PM, whatever.

Yes would love this footie data Mathare, tbh I love Excel spreadsheets as they are so useful :)

I'll PM you my e-mail address if you need to e-mail it.


Thanks in advance.


KC

[KC*]

Thx Mathare, I received the spreadsheet as you promised, very useful indeed.

Thx once again.

KC

[mathare]

Woah thats a lot of info!
Could I please have a copy of the data, got a few things I want to fool around with on these dark nights

Many thanks

Phil

Phil - I'm getting my e-mails rejected from the address you registered with. Can you e-mail mathare at blueyonder dot co dot uk please?

Mods - you can scrap that e-mail address if you like...

[phil_999]

Mat, I've emailed you with any luck it should work don't know why it didn't before, bloody computers. :)

[thewebmaster]

Well you have definately been busy, it was an initial idea when looking through the data on a popular results page i seen only 1 or 2 0-0 results for weeks on end. So come to the decision that if a person were to place a £1 level stake bet of odds of at the most i've seen around 18/1 you're looking at two wins in the entire series of say 50 matches that's costing you around £36 however you've made yourself £50 so total profit would be £50-£36 = £14

This is just looking at my data and presumptions i have in no way researched any staking plans etc.
To be honest i'm unsure of whether the odds for a particular event are actually recorded anywhere or just held in volitial memory on somewhere like betfair.com. Maybe i might be able to request them

I'm definatley considering this option of staking plan with the probablity percentages of commonly known "bad" teams
As we can see already my initial idea seems to have sparked interest and with the ratio of 77892 games going with you and only 6220 of these against you, the profitability is there for the taking

[mathare]

18/1 for a 0-0 draw? I know this is Betfair but even so!

William Hills odds for a 0-0 draw depend on the odds for the match being a draw and are as follows

Draw odds 0-0 odds
11/8 7/2
7/5 4
6/4 4
8/5 & 13/8 9/2
17/10 5
7/4 11/2
9/5 6
15/8 6
19/10 13/2
2/1 15/2
21/10 17/2
11/5 & 9/4 17/2
23/10 17/2
12/5 9
5/2 10
13/5 10
11/4 & 14/5 11
3/1 12
16/5 12
10/3 12
7/2 12
19/5 & 4/1 14
9/2 14
5/1 16
11/2 16
6/1 16
13/2 16
7/1 & 15/2 16
8/1 16

[vegyjones]

The only Prmeiership match that serves as a possible 0-0 ler
is

A Villa v Spurs on Monday!

Available at 1.14
a £10 liability would give £71-46 profit if it were to be 0-0! :wink

[vegyjones]

Only 1 goal away...
there weren't any 0-0's this weekend!

According to my stats,
this weekends most likely 0-0;s in the prem are

Birmingham v Norwich Total Goals = Less than 1 = 1.16
so a £10 liability will win you £62-50

Charlton v Chelsea Total Goals = Less than 1 = 1.1
so a £10 liability will win you £100

:wink

[mathare]

According to my stats:

Birmingham v Norwich has only ended 0-0 once in the last 12 seasons (7 games, all in Div 1).
Birmingham score 0 at home about 1 match in 4
Norwich score 0 away nearly 1 match in 3
Birmingham concede 0 at home 42.5% of the time
Norwich conced 0 away 37.8% of the time
This fixture has been a draw just that once out of 7.
Birmingham have a 0-0 at home about 1 game in 9
Norwich have away games end 0-0 about 5.5% of the time

Charlton v Chelsea has never ended 0-0 since the Premiership began and this fixtures has been played 5 times since then.
Charlton score 0 at home just 22.7% of the time
Chelsea score 0 away 27.8% of the time
Charlton concede 0 at home 31.6% of matches
Chelsea concede 0 away 28.2% of the time.
This game hasn't been drawn in the previous 5 occasions.
Charlton's home games end 0-0 less than 8% of the time
Chelsea have 10.2% of their away games ending 0-0

[thewebmaster]

it's safe to say that my initially idea has sparked interest, and also created a firm belief in most people that i don't talk (at least not all the time) lol