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Thread: Gingertipsters Tips

  1. #61

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    Interested in your fancy of Landucci Ginger as this is on my Horses to Follow list.

    However in 24 runs it has 5 wins and all 5 have come at Brighton, its record there reads 5 from 9 plus 1 place

    1-13111-502

    Away from Goodwood its record is 0 from 15 with only 3 placings

    00-06340-033460-50

    Whilst it has only run once at Goodwood, unplaced, I think we have a course specialist par excellence here.

    I usually lay Landucci away from Brighton. I won't be laying at this price today though.

    Hope it runs out of character for you today !

    good luck

    No wife can endure a gambling husband, unless he is a steady winner

    Thomas Dewar


  2. #62

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    Good point Jonny but my reasoning is this:
    Brighton is an undulating course similar to Goodwood and Epsom. The form of his 3rd at Lingfield (AW) in October and 3rd at Epsom in 05 looks just as good as his Brighton wins.
    John Hills is also in good form though not a great record on their reapearance.



  3. #63

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    10th Day May 26th

    2:35 HAYDOCK
    £50 @ 7.8/1 Aahayson (9/2) (Should be half that price)
    £21 @ 2.45/1 Prime Defender (11/8) 1st Return £72.45
    Combined Price 6/4
    Combined Stake £71
    £1.45 Profit

    2:50 NEWMARKET
    £43 @ 4.6/1 Prince Forever (8/1) 3rd
    £10 @ 4.8/1 St Philip (4/1) (Oops)
    £12 @ 5.6/1 St Philip
    Combined Price 2/1
    £65 Loss

    3:05 HAYDOCK
    £52 @ 4.3/1 Wannabe Posh (13/8) 2nd
    £52 Loss

    Days Stakes £188.00 Days Return £72.45 Days Loss £115.55
    Total Stakes £2311.26 Total Returns £2519.00 Total Profit £207.74
    Balance £1207.74



  4. #64

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    -



  5. #65

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    11th Day May 31st

    7:15 SANDOWN
    £60 @ 4/1 Pinpoint (7/2)
    £28 @ 2.65/1 Mashaahed (5/2) 2nd
    £11 @ 8.6/1 Mighty (8/1) 3rd
    Combined Price 8/11
    £99 Loss

    7:50 SANDOWN
    £70 @ 3/1 Sweepstake (11/4) 1st Return £280.00
    £15 @ 5.4/1 Lady Avenger (6/1) 2nd
    Combined Price 6/4
    Combined Stake £85
    £195 Profit
    None of the trainers are in particularly good form. However the favourites handler is in partiularly poor form. No winner or runner up in last 28 runners. So worth taking on. Saw Sweepstake win well at Salisbury on good/soft and Hannons 2 year olds usually come on a deal for a run. Only 2 went to the far side there but subsequant races suggested little draw bias.

    8:20 SANDOWN
    £45 @ 4.6/1 Moss Vale (4/1) 2nd
    £45 Loss

    Days Stakes £229.00 Days Return £280.00 Days Profit £51.00
    Total Stakes £2540.26 Total Returns £2799.00 Total Profit £258.74
    Balance £1258.74



  6. #66

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    12th Day June 1st

    1:40 EPSOM
    £40 @ 5.4/1 Bahia Breeze (7/2) 2nd
    £40 Loss
    The two Chievely Park horses have the best form but neither has soft ground form. The same applies to Harvest Queen who may be an improved horse this season (from what I saw at Goodwood) so there is only one feasable option. Hopefully there will not be too many non-runners.

    2:10 EPSOM
    £30 @ 6.8/1 Montpellier (6/1) 2nd
    £43 @ 5.4/1 Ordnance Row (9/2) 3rd
    Combined Price 5/2
    £73 Loss

    3:25 EPSOM
    £52 @ 4.4/1 Septimus (3/1) 2nd
    £40 @ 1.6/1 Sixties Icon (11/8)
    £9 @ 11/1 Maraahel (7/1) 3rd
    Combined Price 8/15
    £101 Loss

    4:05 EPSOM
    £13 @19/1 Simply Perfect (8/1)
    £18 @ 12/1 Measured Tempo (9/1)
    £4 @ 7.8/1 Dalvina (11/1)
    £2 @ 9.5/1 Dalvina
    £9 @ 43/1 Peeping Fawn (20/1) 2nd
    Combined Price 3/1
    £46 Loss
    All three selections have been on the drift in recent days but on form they are the value bets. Have though reduced the stake. Simply Perfect probably will not stay the trip but is proven on a soft surface and has the best recent form in the race, therefore she is worth taking a chance with at the price.

    Days Stakes £260.00 Days Return £00.00 Days Loss £260.00
    Total Stakes £2800.26 Total Returns £2799.00 Total Loss £1.26
    Balance £998.74



  7. #67

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    Fridays Bets above



  8. #68

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    My Derby Odds To Beat

    Acapulco 130/1
    Admiralofthefleet 16/1
    Anton Chekov 300/1
    Aqaleem 9/1
    Arabian Gulf NR
    Archipenko 20/1
    Authorised 11/10
    Eagle Mountain 10/1
    Eastern Anthem 500/1
    Kid Mambo 2000/1
    Leander (more than 2000/1)
    Lucarno 20/1
    Mahler 66/1
    Petara Bay (more than 2000/1)
    Regime 33/1
    Salford Mill 33/1
    Soldier Of Fortune 20/1
    Strategic Prince 130/1
    Yellowstone 20/1

    Those in bold are at better prices currently on betfair.



  9. #69

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    Why the hell did I click on this? :splapme

    FREE Live Odds Comparison Software

    Keith Driscoll - Administrator
    Managing Director, Win2Win Limited



    Filipino UK Filipino Forum | Win2Win Racing - Free Tips


  10. #70

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    never underestimate the predictabilty of stupidity


  11. #71

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    Wow, what a day
    Can't remember one like it, four 2nds at good prices (one 43/1), three thirds (saved on Nannina aswell) in 4 races.
    At least the Oaks was won by old Henry.
    Makes the day bearable.

    13th Day June 2nd

    If you want a 40/1 plus winner of the Derby, then try Yellowstone. Took 54/1 earlier today but:
    4:20 EPSOM
    £8 @ 45/1 Yellowstone (28/1)
    Should be at least half that.
    £11 @ 31/1 Admiralofthefleet (14/1)
    £23 @ 12/1 Eagle Mountain (6/1) 2nd
    £20 @ 13/1 Aqaleem (9/1) 3rd
    £3 @ 23/1 Soldier Of Fortune (14/1)
    £3 @ 45/1 Yellowstone OOPS! Can't resist another bet.
    £5 @74/1 Yellowstone
    Combined Price 100/30
    £73 Loss

    3:05 EPSOM
    £188 @ Evens Blue Ksar (4/5) 2nd
    £188 Loss

    In real money not as bad a day as it seems, good late bet on Zaham (real days loss £1).
    Also subscribed to Racing UK before June so got a years subscription when Frankie won the Derby (worth £180).

    Days Stakes £261.00 Days Return £0.00 Mythical Days Loss £261.00
    Total Stakes £3061.26 Total Return £2799.00 Total Loss £262.26
    Balance £737.74



  12. #72

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    Fridays Bets

    14th Day June 8th

    2:45 GOODWOOD
    £100 @ 2/1 Kings Icon 1st Return £300
    £200 Profit

    3:20 GOODWOOD
    £33 @ 10/1 Charlies Dream 3rd
    £23 @ 11.5/1 Murrin 1st Return £287.50
    £8 @ 35/1 Alloro
    Combined Price 4/1
    Combined Stake £64
    £223.50 Profit

    4:30 GOODWOOD
    £15 @ 16/1 Barney McCrew 1st Return £255.00
    £240 Profit

    5:05 GOODWOOD
    £100 @ 2.2/1 Ballroom Dancer 1st Return £320.00
    £220 Profit

    Days Stakes £279.00 Days Returns £1162.50 DAYS PROFIT £883.50
    Total Stakes £3340.26 Total Returns £3961.50 Total Profit £621.24
    Balance £1621.24



  13. #73

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    My Seconditus has at last come to an end.

    Bets in 4 races, 4 WINS!

    Including at 11.5/1 and 16/1 winners.

    I needed that, hope saturday is half as good. IT WAS!

    £883.50 Profit.



  14. #74

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    15th Day June 9th

    3:25 GOODWOOD
    £33 @ 8.4/1 Vanderlin NON-RUNNER
    £30 @ 6.2/1 Dunelight 1st Return £190.70 incl. reduction factor
    £12 @ 25/1 Raptor NON-RUNNER
    £160.70 Profit

    4:30 GOODWOOD
    £17 @ 12/1 Gleaming Spirit 2nd
    £17 Loss

    5:40 GOODWOOD
    £52 @ 4.7/1 Ebert
    £8 @ 8.2/1 Moody Tunes
    £13 @4.7/1 Audience 2nd
    Combined Price 6/5
    £73 Loss

    6:10 GOODWOOD
    £67 @ 3.7/1 Dubai Dynamo Got 4/1 but that price now gone. 1st Return £291.60 incl. RF
    £224.60 Profit

    Days Stakes £187.00 Days Returns £482.30 incl. RFs Days Profit £295.30
    Total Stakes £3527.26 Total Returns £4443.80 Total Profit £916.54
    Balance £1916.54
    % profit on stakes 25.98%, Strike Rate 36.54%, In First Three 92.31%
    Average Price Taken 7/1, Average Price Per Race between 85/40 and 9/4
    Average Priced Winner between 4/1 and 9/2



  15. #75

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    Next bets likely for Salisbury tuesday.

    Another busy week ahead, hoping to go racing at least 4 days.

    Ginge



  16. #76

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    16th Day June 12th

    2:15 SALISBURY
    £60 @ 4/1 Ramblin Bob 1st Return £300
    £33 @ 6.6/1 Bllinskelligs Boy 2nd
    Looks a substandered maiden for the course but with no trainers involved doing particularly well with debutants I've gone with two with experience. The main bet has a poor draw but Seb should be able to get a good early position which negates that. From a stable in top form.
    The supposed Hannon second string is too big a price to let go and has a descent enough draw.
    £7 @ 13.5/1 An Scaribh Worth a saver, more rain will enhance its chance. Could be even better price on the tote with girl jockey and wierd sounding name, gaelic?
    (2 main bets started 3/1 jfs)
    Combined Price 6/4
    Combined Stake £100
    £200 Profit

    3:15 SALISBURY
    £33 @ 5.8/1 Nice To Know Saw her at Newbury, big filly, should be better for that run, had not come in her coat there. Is a value alternative to the favourite whos trainer is on a long losing run so worth opposing at a short price.
    £14 @ 15/1 Up The Chimney Will improve for a considerate introduction.
    Combined Price 4/1
    £47 Loss

    4:15 SALISBURY
    £50 @ 4.4/1 Pentatonic 2nd.
    Unexposed lightly raced type from a yard capable of improving an older horse. One draw back though is a possible lack of pace in the race. She can pull.
    £13 @ 5.8/1 Lisathedaddy 3rd.
    Again lack of pace a possible problem but from a stable beginning to find form. Looks well handicapped on all weather form.
    £23 @ 10.5/1 Uig Uig looks exposed but has won off a higher mark and may well get the run of the race. She is the only runner that usually runs up with the pace so may get a soft lead, all the rest are usually held up or dropped out. (Did not front run)
    Combined Price 11/8
    £86 Loss

    Days Stakes £233.00 Days Return £300.00 Days Profit £67.00
    Total Stakes £3760.26 Total Return £4743.80 Total Profit £983.54 (26.16%)
    Balance £1983.54



  17. #77

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    17th Day June 14th

    2:10 NEWBURY
    £25 @ 6.4/1 Captain Esteem
    £12 @ 9/4 Alwaabel 2nd
    Combined Price 5/4
    £37 loss

    2:40 NEWBURY
    £20 @ 7/1 Zifaaf Did get some 8s
    £9 @ 2.3/1 Circle Of Love 2nd
    Combined Price 11/8
    £29 loss

    3:15 NEWBURY
    £45 @ 5.2/1 Look So NON-RUNNER
    £15 @ 4.6/1 Oceana Gold 3rd
    £9 @ 13/1 Tifernati
    Combined Price 3/1
    £24 loss

    3:50 NEWBURY
    £30 @ 6.8/1 Thiella
    I backed Treat for the 1000 Guineas but the stable has had only one win in its last 28 runners (excluding yesturday) so is worth taking on at odds on. Basaata is interesting but Thiella is the bet for now.
    £30 loss

    4:55 NEWBURY
    £56 @ 3.9/1 Summer Dancer 1st Return £250.60 (incl. RF) Is the obvious one in a race where not many are in form with conditions to suit. Any rain would be a help for the main selection.
    £9 @ 8.8/1 Tipsy Prince
    £16 @ 14.5/1 Bluebelle Dancer NON-RUNNER
    Combined Price 9/4
    Combined Stake £65
    £185.60 Profit (incl. Reduction factor)

    5:25 NEWBURY
    £43 @ 5.8/1 Mujahaz
    £40 @ 7/1 Calzaghe Gone in again at 8.4/1 this morning, I make it an 18%, 9/2 chance! Should be able to box clever early then hit them with a turn of foot.
    £8 @ 10.5/1 Sunley Peace 3rd
    Combined Price 7/4
    £91 loss

    Have reduced some stakes for the moment due to poor liquidity / possible changes to going.

    Days Stakes £276.00 Days Return £250.60 Days Loss £25.40
    Total Stakes £4036.26 Total Return £4994.40 Total Profit £958.14 (23.74%)
    Balance £1958.14



  18. #78

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    6:50 GOODWOOD
    £50 @ 5.2/1 Viva La Flag (OOPS! Got to go in again) 3rd
    £8 @ 11/1 Viva La Flag
    The fav Dream Of Fortune may well be able to improve on its debut form significantly but needs to (should be fav but is too short). The two selections have better form and probably can improve a bit on that.
    £33 @ 11.5/1 Royal Secrets 1st Unfortunately Dream Of Fortune was a non-runner taking out 43.2%. Return £248.56
    Combined Price 7/2
    Combined Stake £91
    £157.56 Profit

    7:25 GOODWOOD
    £75 @ 7/2 (Fred Done) Califoria Laws Only just worked the race out. Missed the very best price but still very good value. Best on AW surface but his mark reflects that. Has improved on the fibresand since running on turf, so seems likely to improve on his best turf form.
    £25 @ 10.5/1 Binnion Bay improved a little last time (AW). Below form penultimate start (turf) but that was at 6 furlongs. Probably better 7f / 1m now and run well time before on turf.
    £9 @ 12/1 Ivory Place 1st Return £117.00 Might not act on soft surface if the ground changes, might not stay the trip on soft ground (more of a test) but odds make it worthy of a saver. Might be a non-runner.
    Combined Price 13/8
    Combined Stake £109
    £8 Profit

    8:00 GOODWOOD
    £30 @ 8.6/1 Six Of Diamonds (unlucky 4th)
    £33 @ 7.8/1 Samorra (not get a run)
    Combined Price 7/2
    £63 loss

    Days Stakes £263.00 Days Return £365.56 Days Profit £102.56
    Total Stakes £4299.26 Total Return £5359.96 Total Profit £1060.70 (24.67%)
    Balance £2060.70



  19. #79

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    Nice profit at goodwood again, well done :)

    missed the 1st race but got Ivory Place at 26/1 just before the off.

    Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.


  20. #80

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    Well done Matthew 26/1 is a big price for a horse described by Timeform last time out as "should remain of interest once reassesed". 16/1 was the best I saw on course. I had him down as a 7/1 chance on good-firm / good.

    Hope your bet was your main one not just a saver like mine.



  21. #81

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    19th Day June 17th

    2:00 SALISBURY
    £100 @ 100/30 Inchmahome From an in form stable. Looks to be the only horse capable of improvement. This morning Pocketwood is a non-runner but the selection has still gone on the drift. Can't resist.
    £20 @ 3.8/1 Inchmahome Should be half that. Make that double!
    £120 loss

    3:00 SALISBURY
    £13 @ 28/1 Night Prospector NON-RUNNER
    £16 @ 19/1 Makabul 2nd Best runs have come at 5 furlongs on a soft surface so if the rains come could go close in optimum conditions. However, will need to break better than he has rescently.
    Does not look as if it is going to rain sufficiently.
    £16 loss

    3:30 SALISBURY
    £10 @ 35/1 The Trader Rain would also help The Trader, capable of running well on sound surface but more consistant on soft. Because he often runs his best races in France it seems the British public under estimate his chance. Stable not in great form but older horses are not as suspect to poor stable form. Probably needed his reappearance. Should be around a quarter of current price.
    £14 @ 13/1 Pivotal Point Might need the run, might not want any rain but could still be pulled out if it were too soft. Price means worth the chance.
    £15 @ 2.15/1 Sakhee's Secret Do have some 2.3/1 but as that is not now available have made it the saver. If I can get more 9/4 this improving 3 year old could still be the main bet. Saw him at Newbury, massive backside to him. May eventually be capable of taking on the best.
    £40 @ 2.8/1 Sakhee's Secret 1st Return £199.25
    £10 @ 12/1 Pivotal Point
    Combined Price 13/8
    Combined Stake £89
    £110.25 Profit

    4:00 SALISBURY
    £100 @ 1.8/1 What A Treasure Weak race with few in form let alone capable of improvement. What A treasure the exception. Rain did not come, could not reproduce the form.
    £12 @ 8.8/1 Rogue 2nd First try at 7 furlongs could bring about a return to form so merits a saver.
    Combined Price 6/5
    £112 loss

    Days Stakes £337.00 Days Return £199.25 Days loss £137.75
    Total Stakes £4636.26 Total Returns £5559.21 Total Profit £922.95 (19.9%)
    Balance £1922.95



  22. #82

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    20th Day, June 19th

    2:30 ROYAL ASCOT
    £15 @ 15/1 Bob's Surprise
    £6 @ 79/1 Greek Mythology
    £4 @ 49/1 Swiss Franc 2nd
    Combined Price 10/1
    £25 loss

    3:05 ROYAL ASCOT
    £23 @ 15/1 Tax Free
    £19 @ 14.5/1 Beauty Is Truth
    £10 @ 11/1 Enticing Enticing might yet be the main bet if the rain stays away.
    £7 @ 12/1 Benbaun
    £7 @ 10/1 Enticing Judging from the going stick reading and forecast should not be too bad. With so many newspaper tipsters going for her it has forced me into the bet earlier than I would have wished.
    £10 @ 10/1 Enticing (Corals)
    £5 @ 9.5/1 Enticing The time of the first race suggests it is on the firm side.
    Combined Price 9/4
    £81 loss

    3:45 ROYAL ASCOT
    £33 @ 7/1 Excellant Art 1st Return £264
    £7 @ 22/1 Duke Of Marmalade 2nd
    £3 @ 15/1 Creachadoir
    £2 @ 24/1 Duke Of Marmalade
    £9 @ 18/1 Creachadoir
    Combined Price 7/2
    Combined Stake £54
    £210 Profit

    4:20 ROYAL ASCOT
    £40 @ 5.8/1 Ramonti 1st Return £272
    £17 @ 17/1 Racinger
    £3 @ 119/1 Notability
    Combined Price 4/1
    Combined Stake £60
    £212 Profit

    Days Stakes £220.00 Days Return £536.00 Days Profit £316.00
    Total Stakes £4856.26 Total Returns £6095.21 Total Profit £1238.95 (25.5%)
    Balance £2238.95



  23. #83

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    Another bet above



  24. #84

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    Explanations

    3:45 Ascot
    The most likely result is a win for either Cockney or Dutch, I make it a 56% chance. However, The fav did not beat Creachdoir by far in the Ire Guinees and 2 out was going just as well. Excellant Art in my opinion would have won the French race fairly easily had he got through and is the type sure to improve as a 3yo. There seems a lack of horses to go from the front in todays race. Both the favs can pull a bit and are held up. Coming from the back in a slowly run race is asking a lot too. Marmalade is possibly the most likely to be ridden prominently though if it turns into a sprint Hes A decoy would have no chance.
    There have been studies to suggest where two horses meet again it pays to back against the one who should win. This is because the betting public discounts the one "worse off" and is allowed to go off at too big a price. You do not win as often but overall you make a profit.

    4:20 Ascot
    Is the real George going to turn up, on form he is actually value at current prices. But is he still capable of that form after stud duties. Mores to the point will he be in the right frame of mind to handle the hurly burly of Royal Ascot. I was a bit surprised Godolphin seem to have put a pacemaker in as Ramonti seems best allowed to dictate. Suppose they know what they are doing. I thought Ramonti was a little below form in the Lockinge and can improve. Godolphin have won Group 1s before with pacemakers who are around 5 or 6 lbs below the grade usually needed to win. Notability fits the bill. Racingers form is also not quite good enough but he is improving. Hopefully the three selections will not take each other on.



  25. #85

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    21st Day, June 20th

    2:30 Royal Ascot
    £19 @ 12.5/1 Tariq 1st Return £255.28 (incl. 18.2% RF)
    £20 @ 1.56/1 US Ranger 2nd
    £10 @ 4/1 Major Cadeaux NON-RUNNER
    £4 @ 9.5/1 Tariq
    £5 @ 1.3/1 US Ranger
    Combined Price 11/10
    Combined Stake £48
    £207.28 Profit

    3:05 Royal Ascot
    £67 @ 3.7/1 Satwa Queen 2nd
    £24 @ 2.9/1 Nannina 1st Return £90.89 (incl. 3.9% RF)
    Combined Price £11/10
    Combined Stake £91
    £0.11 loss

    3:45 Royal Ascot
    £67 @ 11/4 (corals) Manduro 1st Return £251.25
    £43 @ 5/1 Notnowcato 3rd
    Combined Price 5/4
    Combined Stake £110
    £141.25 Profit

    Days Stakes £249.00 Days Return £597.42 Days Profit £348.42
    Total Stakes £5105.26 Total Returns £6692.63 Total Profit £1587.37 (31.1%)
    Balance £2587.37



  26. #86

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    Explanations

    2:30 Ascot
    US Ranger has by far the best form and is just about value at around 6/4 or 13/8. He did not seem to get home in the Guineas (has won well over 1 mile), bit below his best. Still has the scope to make a top class racehorse. As could Major Cadeaux, one of my 10 to follow bankers. Sore after the Guineas, another that appeared not to get home. Any easing of the ground will not be against these two. Tariq though is the main bet. An impressive winner of his debut on soft ground. May not want it too soft tomorrow though as the less emphasis on stamina the better. Showed improved form in a slowly run 7f Newmarket listed race. If staying a truly run 7f he can improve again but needs to. Major Cadeaux and Tariq were 2nd and 3rd in the Coventry last season. The pace looks to be in stalls 1, 6, 13 and 16. Including first 2 selections. The others look either out of form or not good enough, Chariots Of Fire possibly best of them.

    3:05 Ascot
    Put simply, Satwa Queen is over priced. I just about make her favourite. She acts on good-firm and soft. Below form on reappearance but held up in a slowly run race. There are at least 3 in todays field who like to race prominently so it should be a fair or good pace. Wasseema is best from the front, Bahia Breeze and Expensive are usually somewhere near the pace too. My saver bet Nannina is a big danger to the selection on a sound surface, had excuses last time (too fresh on soft surface). She has Royal Ascot form too.



  27. #87

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    22nd Day, June 21st

    3:05 ROYAL ASCOT
    £100 @ 1.72/1 All My Loving 2nd
    £100 loss

    3:45 ROYAL ASCOT
    £27 @ 6.6/1 Sergeant Cecil
    £3 @ 99/1 Le Miracle 3rd
    £32 @ 1.96/1 Sergeant Cecil (place) It's less than each way place but I would rather have the bigger price for the win bet.
    Combined Price (excluding place) 6/1
    £62 loss

    4:20 ROYAL ASCOT
    £21 @ 12/1 Shmookh
    £9 @ 27/1 Dubai Twighlight
    £20 @ 5.6/1 Colorado Rapid
    £7 @ 10/1 Ekhtiaar
    £5 @ 13.5/1 Shmookh
    £2 @ 33/1 Dubai Twighlight
    Combined Price 15/8
    £64 loss

    4:55 ROYAL ASCOT
    £30 @ 8.4/1 Al Shemali 2nd
    £15 @ 20/1 Trinity College
    £15 @ 4.2/1 Zaham 1st Return £118.94 (incl. 7.9% RF)
    £8 @ 9.5/1 Desert Dew 3rd
    £6 @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) Supersonic Dave
    £2 @ 24/1 Trinity College
    £10 @ 3.9/1 Zaham
    Combined Price 10/11
    Combined Stake £86
    £32.94 Profit

    Days Stake £312.00 Days Return £118.94 Days loss £193.06
    Total Stakes £5417.26 Total Return £6811.57 Total Profit £1394.31 (25.7%)
    Balance £2394.31



  28. #88

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    New Bet in 3:05 above



  29. #89

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    Explanations

    3:05 Ascot
    All My Lovings form is head and shoulders above anything else and is improving rapidly. The Oaks third was on good-soft but her Chester run was her best to that point too (good-firm). I see Tom Segal reckons the family don't go on but the example given Quarter Moon was a small filly. The selection is a big inexperieced sort. The type to improve throughout the season. Her form is good enough to win most if not all rescent runnings of this race and there does not look much to beat. Saw Cosmodrome at Goodwood, nice improving filly but not sure to get the trip or act on a firm surface. Silkwood unlikely to stay, Dalvina ran in the Oaks as though it was more than just the ground wrong (if right would be a danger, big if). Should put more money on really but have enough staked today.

    3:45 Ascot
    Yeats is the probable winner and deserves to be odds on but not that short. Sergeant Cecil looks probable to be placed and 13/2 win and almost evens the place looks the bet. Hoping for "the miracle" to happen with Le Miracle at 99/1. Had a progressive profile last season when he was a close 3rd to the main selection in the Cadran so proven at the trip and on the ground (unlike many). Soft going against him last time out. Thought about putting up Baddam as an each way with his Royal Ascot / firm ground / extreme distance record but trainers form a worry. Also thought about Geordieland for the place only but it looks as if many others had the same idea and is too short.

    4:20 Ascot
    Smookh looks over-priced, I see some judges think he might not stay the extra furlong. I think he may well improve for it. Has looked to be tieing up late but it could be just idling infront. As such it is difficult for the handicapper to get a grip on him. I was told by one of Barry Hills stable lads prior to his last run that a big run was expected from Dubai Twighlight and so it proved. Not quite getting home over 10 furlongs but doing very well coming from off the pace in a slowly run race. Comes down to a mile now. Agree with everything Pricewise says about Colorado Rapid. Ekhtiaar was unlucky at Epsom though everyone saw that and stable in cracking form. Artimino is a danger to all but is a false price due to stables winner of the race last year.

    4:55 Ascot
    Zaham and Al Shemali look the best bets in a race without many improvers. Trinity College is an over-priced 2nd string of Aiden O'Brien though his best form has a questionable look to it. Supersonic Dave ran poorly last time at 1 mile but is much better over this trip. Stable was on a 40 or 50 losing run then, quite a bit better now. Desert Dew is another possible improver but did not find much under pressure last time. Kid Mambo ran a great race in the Derby but looked a stayer, if I owned him he would run in the Vase (2m) not 1m2f. With him there it is sure to be very fast pace.



  30. #90

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    Quote Originally Posted by gingertipster View Post
    3:05 ROYAL ASCOT
    3:45 ROYAL ASCOT
    £27 @ 6.6/1 Sergeant Cecil
    £32 @ 1.96/1 Sergeant Cecil (place) It's less than each way place but I would rather have the bigger price for the win bet.
    [/B]
    Ladbrokes are 1/3rd a place...6/1 was available...

    After commision you are worst off...

    The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them.

    Mark Twain.


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