My Systems

[jackster109]

Hi all

I've been trying my luck with my own systems for a few years now but to no really avail. Some have been good and some bad but I have used the various websites out there to see how the performed historically.

What I want to know is what if I am going down the right track with my systems. I have 80 systems and I have them split into 8 categories, each category contains 8 systems.

1. Handicap Turf
2. Non-Handicap Turf
3. Handicap All-Weather
4. Non-Handicap Weather
5. Handicap Hurdle
6. Non-Handicap Hurdle
7. Handicap Chase
8. Non Handicap Chase

My systems only concentrate on one race type at a time eg. Novice Hurdles, Group Stakes, AW handicaps etc. For an example I have 3 systems for Novice Hurdles, 1 for Class 1 Hurdles, 1 for Maiden Hurdles, 1 For Selling Hurdles, and finally 1 for NH flat races. These all come under the umbrella of Non-HC Hurdle races.

50% of my systems are base on the AM ratings site and the other 50% are non AM based. I’m averaging about 6 bets a day with my systems but sometimes I have none and sometimes around 20. Sometimes I am up and sometimes I am down, with the latter being the more frequent. I've been using these systems for about 4 months using a betting bank.

What I want to know is what the system backers out there think of the way I am going about with this?

Should I go for fewer systems and use systems that cover all race types? Or just have two categories: Flat and NH

Should I continue to use the AM ratings or just look for other systems not based on his ratings? Who’s to say these are to continue show profit over the next few years?

I've been following the system guides on the blog and have a few ideas but would like to know what the "PROS" think of my strategy.

I am thinking of using fewer systems because I think that I am going a bit out of my depth.

Any suggestions and advice would be extremely grateful!

Cheers

Jackster

[Win2Win]

but would like to know what the "PROS" think

Not sure we have any prostitutes on here (although I believe Peza will do anything for money :D), but maybe the gamblers could help

Splitting into catergories is actually the best way to do it, that way you are not replicating base variables all the time. The down-side with the way you have done it is that you are nottaking advantage of any edges in other areas such as F/c price, sex, race distance, going, and 100's more.

I have around 320 live at the moment, but over 500 are running in all, some on test, some on the back burner, etc. Spread over all kinds of base variables, but I'd still need a few thousand more to cover them all, although I've scrapped 1000's of test systems over the years.

If you are running that many systems, you need a seperate bank for each, otherwise you wouldn't know which are working and which are failing, it is also best to have Bank Barrier's in place once your system portfolio gets into double figures.

[wb]

You seem to have a good understanding of how it all works, so that's good. I'd try diversify from using race category only however. Things like last time out, trainer track record, favs at certain courses etc can all be used as a base variable and built on. Using the AM ratings as they are have pretty much lost their value, but they are still handy to use as a variable for sorting the wheat from the chaff.

[mathare]

I have 80 systems and I have them split into 8 categories, each category contains 8 systems.

Where did the other 16 go?

[Win2Win]

Where did the other 16 go?

He's using Gordon Brown's inflation formulae

[jackster109]

Thanks for your replies guys.

I only have 64 systems, the heat was playing with my head yesterday

No wonder I only had a "D" in maths at school.

I do have a seperate bank for each system and written a nice spreadsheet to record all my bets. So I know whats performing and whats failing.

I am using different variables within the catergories such as sex, racelength, jockey SR etc. Some are just the case of backing the fave such if the race meets certain conditions, length, class, age restrictions etc.

I am going to look further in to my systems, seeing if they perform just as well in the winter as the summer etc for every year of data that I have available. I did ask about this in a previous post. Maybe I'll kick out the deadwood too!

With regards to the AM ratings I have filtered the AM based and non-AM based systems. They are both performing as well as each other, so hopefully with a bit of tweeking I can start to make a bit more profit. However, as wb said they have lost thier value but I have noticed some excellent returns with turf maidens.

Can somebody explain the "bank barrier" bit for me or can I find out more via a page on the W2W website.

Cheers guys and happy gambling!

Jackster

[Win2Win]

Can somebody explain the "bank barrier" bit for me or can I find out more via a page on the W2W website.

Jackster

It's explained in detail in the Member's Area .......or you can install the free System Manager, it explains it with that

[jackster109]

Ok, I understand the bank barrier.

Would I still record the bets in my spreadsheet if my bank barrier kicks in?

Is 30% the recommended level to set the barrier at?

Thanks

[mathare]

Would I still record the bets in my spreadsheet if my bank barrier kicks in?

Oh yes!

Is 30% the recommended level to set the barrier at?

Depends on the SR of the system. For normal 35-40% SR systems I use bank barriers of around 55% or so

[Win2Win]

"...or do" what???

He's been abducterd!!!

[mathare]

"...or do" what???

I had a cold.

[Win2Win]

Is 30% the recommended level to set the barrier at?

Generally the higher the SR the higher the barrier.

For instance, if you have a 20% SR, then you know you'll gets lots of losing runs, so you don't want the Bank Barrier kicking in every time you get a 'normal' losing run, so you'd set it low. With a 60% SR, losing runs are short, so you can set it around 70%.

[jackster109]

Its right you learn something new every day!!

So far today I haven't learn't anything, so a few more questions regarding this topic

1. If I miss a bet due to work or other commitments, should I still record it in my spreadsheet?

2. I generally check my systems the night before, sometimes due to NRs another system may become active and find a qualifier due to one of the variables being the number of runners. At the moment I am backing these qualifiers, should I be doing this?

Cheers

[mathare]

1. If I miss a bet due to work or other commitments, should I still record it in my spreadsheet?

Your spreadsheet should basically be an accurate record of the bets you placed. If you missed a bet don't record it in your spreadsheet. Win or lose - it didn't affect your bank if you weren't able to place a bet on it.

2. I generally check my systems the night before, sometimes due to NRs another system may become active and find a qualifier due to one of the variables being the number of runners. At the moment I am backing these qualifiers, should I be doing this?

The key here is consistency. Are you always able to find out about NRs and re-run the system rules? If so, then carry on as you are. If not, you may want to think about not backing these qualifiers. I run my systems first thing in the morning (I say first thing - I mean first thing after I get into the office, so about 9am) and then don't look back at them. NRs may invalidate some of my selections and potentially bring others into play but the only way to be 100% accurate is to run all the systems just before every race. And then a late withdrawal can affect the field size so what do you do? I decided to run my rules once in the morning and use the cards as they are at that time and not to worry about any changes that might happen between that point and the start of the race. After all, with enough rain a course could go from good to soft in the course of an afternoon so any systems using the going might apply to the first race but not the last (or vice versa). Do you have time to check all these things before every race?

[jackster109]

Your spreadsheet should basically be an accurate record of the bets you placed. If you missed a bet don't record it in your spreadsheet. Win or lose - it didn't affect your bank if you weren't able to place a bet on it

The reason I asked this is because you said to record the bets if my bank barrier kicked in. Obviously, I would set the stake to £0 but I thought maybe for strike-rates reasons. I would also record the bet this way if the bank barrier set in. However, wouldn't I need to record the bet as if I did put it on, in order for the system to come out of the protected bank barrier.

The key here is consistency. Are you always able to find out about NRs and re-run the system rules?

Im generally home from work before the racing starts (except in the winter, when racing starts earlier). So I would check the NRs before the 1st race of the day, that way I would matain some consistency.

Thanks for your help Mathare

Cheers

Jackster

[mathare]

The reason I asked this is because you said to record the bets if my bank barrier kicked in. Obviously, I would set the stake to £0 but I thought maybe for strike-rates reasons. I would also record the bet this way if the bank barrier set in. However, wouldn't I need to record the bet as if I did put it on, in order for the system to come out of the protected bank barrier.

In a way it's up to you how you do it. Unless you can record EVERY bet (including those when you'e on holiday etc) I'd only record the bets you actually place. Bank barriers complicate things a little. These need to be recorded in the spreadsheet as they are real bets. You COULD put them on but you're choosing not to once the barrier is triggered. How you handle that in your spreadsheet is a matter of personal choice. I set the bookie (which I record for every bet) to "N/A" to make it clear I didn't actually place the bet due to a bank barrier.

Im generally home from work before the racing starts (except in the winter, when racing starts earlier). So I would check the NRs before the 1st race of the day, that way I would matain some consistency.

Try that and see how it goes then :)

[Win2Win]

In the case of 'paper trading', you only record those that you would actually PHYSICALLY place if the staking plan told you to put real money on it. If you are 5 miles over the Black Sea, real or paper, you'd not be placing them, so they are not recorded.

[jackster109]

Once again thanks guys.

I'll just have to set-up another page or different spreadsheet to handle any sytems that enter the bank barriers.

Another three questions have just entered my head I ask alot of questions don't I

1. You say the bank barrier % depends on the SR. How do I determine the SR to use to set the barrier. Do I use the live SR or the average SR from the data researched?

2. Are I right in thinking that a system could "step-in and step-out" out of bank barrier. After 5 wins it could come out of the bank barrier but a few more losses it could step back in to the barrier?

3. Generally when do you decide to ditch a system? Once the bank has gone? Or do you tweek it to try make a profit or is that just "fitting the system to work"

Cheers

[Win2Win]

1. SR average for the longest period possible

2. Yes, that is basically an 'insurance' premium you pay to protect the bank. Doesn't happen as often as you would think though.

3. Three strikes and it's out usually, unless I know WHY it has gone crap. Even then some go on the back burner, and keep ticking over in 'cyber system space!!'

4......Just getting ready for the next question

[jackster109]

Cheers Keith

I now declare this post officially closed (for me anyway)