Grand national

[bryn]

I have placed a bet on "Big fella thanks" to win the Grand national @ 25/1.
And after his win yesterday the odds has gone down to 10/1.
Can anyone advice on what action if any I should do. I was thinking of laying it to loose for a free 15/1 bet or lay it for a profit either way win or lose.
Thanks in advance
Bryn

[TheOldhamWhisper]

I'd take the free bet.

[neilb7]

Depends how much your bet is Bryn ?

i cant advise on what you should do, but from a hard lesson the other week i had Tricky Trickster at around 19/20 and i layed it off when it went down to 10 or 11

of course it won and meant i would have been a couple of hundred better off than i was:splapme

from that lesson i will always stick now with my win bet and just let it run..

[bryn]

Depends how much your bet is Bryn ?

i cant advise on what you should do, but from a hard lesson the other week i had Tricky Trickster at around 19/20 and i layed it off when it went down to 10 or 11

of course it won and meant i would have been a couple of hundred better off than i was:splapme

from that lesson i will always stick now with my win bet and just let it run..

Neil
I have £50 riding on it, if it wins @ 25/1 thats £1250

[neilb7]

Neil
I have £50 riding on it, if it wins @ 25/1 thats £1250

for £50 back in your pocket and a free 15/1 bet, i would lay it off...

if you havent had any other bets you could put the £50 on some others...

good luck .....

[Win2Win]

You either decide to trade bets or you don't. For trading use a seperate account, don't mic it with Lay/Win bets. As Neil points out, messing about can cost you money.

[mick56]

Hi bryn and well done i like to see anyone beat the market.I can see the attraction in laying off to be on a bet to nothing,but if you had good reasons to think the horse would win the national which now have been futher vindicated by the current odds my advice would be to hang on to what you have got sob. good fortune whatever your decision.

[bryn]

Keith and Mick
You are right I will let it run @ 25/1. I really should have done it each way.
Thanks

[Godspot]

Keith and Mick
You are right I will let it run @ 25/1. I really should have done it each way.
Thanks

I think you're sitting pretty - he's set to carry less than 11 stone which is no bad thing & would keep hold but maybe agree with Mathare (Crikey! No!) a touch too...

I was going to start a thread around the prospects of Niche Market after his recent run against Denman - still feel the official h'capper should have upped him & Tricky Trickster a lot more than the 3lb or so that he did. Statistically speaking, TT being a 7yo, none since 1940 have won, he's up against it & NM on 11-4, he is too but otherwise has a winning profile. Quite fancy, Snowy Morning but am going to wait until the lower weights sort themselves out a bit & having said that I don't that last years' winner has been over-burdoned either.

Enjoy the interim whatever!

[Godspot]

I think you're sitting pretty - he's set to carry less than 11 stone which is no bad thing

But according to Nick Mordin's latest - perhaps not - reckons he's going to have trouble with the long run-in @ Aintree.....

[Godspot]

Quite fancy, Snowy Morning but am going to wait until the lower weights sort themselves out a bit & having said that I don't think that last year's winner has been over-burdoned either.

11 7 Mon Mome - would that be the most carried since Red Rum?

Going to take something to beat him after his Gold Cup 3rd - have gone off Snowy Morning (too many mistakes last year?) somewhat and prefer a fresh State Of Play but My Will is arguably best off at the weights on last years running but still has 4l's to find. Perhaps Willie Mullins' other runner, Arbor Supreme on 10 8 is interesting but at this stage Mon Mome looks solid?

[mathare]

Just to add my opinion to this, if I were you Bryn I would wait till the race market on the day is put up and check the odds again then. You can always leave an order to lay it off for a chunk in-running if it does shorten.

The National is still a month away and a lot can happen between now and then. As Mick says, you had a reason for sticking £50 on it at 25/1 and were justified in doing so according to the market moves. If the horse doesn't make the starting line for whatever reason you have lost the opportunity to have traded out but no more money than you would have done had it not shortened to 10/1. If you trade out and it wins you'll be kicking yourself. If it runs and doesn't win, again you could have saved your stake but when you struck the bet you felt it was solid enough for £50 on the nose. What I am saying is a lot can happen in the next month and no-one really knows how it will all go down.

If your selection gets prominent in the race I would be tempted to lay it off to cover your stake at least.

[mick56]

hi bryn i was just thinking we could have the makings of an interesting thread here by asking Do any other members invest in the Ante Post markets?

This is an area where i dont dabble hence my interest in any views / experiences of other members.

[lowe1]

I have had £25 on tricky Trickster at 18/1 about 2 months ago

[mick56]

Hi lowe1 nice one mate,on reading your post the first thought i had was you might be able to do a bit of bussiness with bryn.and there's an idea a win2win punters co operative!.

There is bound to be some boring legislation which prevents this,but i can certainly see the potential.

[Win2Win]

You could always just lay off enough to get your stake back, and have a free bet.

[wb]

I cases like this, I generally lay off just enough to cover my stake. If he loses, no harm done and if he wins, you still have a nice bet.

[barrelmaniac]

What date is the national?

[TheGoodGuy]

What date is the national?

Saturday 10th April

[barrelmaniac]

Saturday 10th April

that soon!


I usually take a kicking in the big festivals, so another one so soon will probably not be so good for me!

[mick56]

Hi BM i never get excited about the festivals from a betting point of view,and often end up doing a lot of work for nothing,last week for instance i put in many hours of work on the hcaps to come up with just one bet which lost!.

But i do enjoy watching the best horses race against each other,and from a betting angle noting some of the horses for next time can prove profitable.

[Godspot]

But i do enjoy watching the best horses race against each other,and from a betting angle noting some of the horses for next time can prove profitable.

That is almost:

"My best advice (& this coming from someone who had a profitable meet) for the meeting though, is to watch every race closely & make notes of everything you see. I guarantee they'll provide you with many great bets over the next year."

Word 4 word, N Mordin last week's column

Take today - I thought it interesting that Synchronised had swerved the 4 miler (on account of the ground not being soft enough) for the Midlands National. & if Melange does anything in the 5.10, I'll be chuffed!

[Win2Win]

Not so soon really, sometimes it is only a 2 week break!!

[mick56]

Hi GS thanks for your reply,i do not read N.Mordin based on previouse articles from him which you have posted he appears to work on stats and trends?,which while they can be useful are not an area that i put a lot of emphasis on,or not the type hyped up by the racing press anyway.

The national is not a race i would normally bet on,but when i handicapped the runners Character Building on my figs was the only + rated horse in the race,the rating comes from last season but the races he has had this season where both in unsuitable events and he was not equipped with the tongue tie which appeared to work for him last year.
He will stay and i think the course will suit partically the long run in.
So that is a brief summery of why i feel he could be worth a bet.

An interesting foot note yesturday evening i decided to have a bet on the horse,one of the leading exponents of best odds guaranteed now only allow this if you place the bet on line,So i attempted to do so asking for £50 e/w and £150 win at thier 20/1, i was offered £50 ew plus a futher £48? at the 20/1.This in a race where the turnover will be millions.

[barrelmaniac]

Hi GS thanks for your reply,i do not read N.Mordin based on previouse articles from him which you have posted he appears to work on stats and trends?,which while they can be useful are not an area that i put a lot of emphasis on,or not the type hyped up by the racing press anyway.

The national is not a race i would normally bet on,but when i handicapped the runners Character Building on my figs was the only + rated horse in the race,the rating comes from last season but the races he has had this season where both in unsuitable events and he was not equipped with the tongue tie which appeared to work for him last year.
He will stay and i think the course will suit partically the long run in.
So that is a brief summery of why i feel he could be worth a bet.

An interesting foot note yesturday evening i decided to have a bet on the horse,one of the leading exponents of best odds guaranteed now only allow this if you place the bet on line,So i attempted to do so asking for £50 e/w and £150 win at thier 20/1, i was offered £50 ew plus a futher £48? at the 20/1.This in a race where the turnover will be millions.

Its a bit strange that they wouldnt take your bet in a race with such high turnover.
Why don't you place a win bet with betfair, and then also a bet nearer the time when they have the place exchange?

[mick56]

Hi BM i do all my betting on BF now but the speculation on this race was going to be a one off,so i wanted to keep it separate from my BF account.

But the above is one reason why people are leaving bookmakers and putting thier money on the exchanges ?.

[bryn]

Since 1970 there were only five favourites that have won the Grand National. Strange enough the sp for all five was 7/1. Big fella thanks now is the favourite @ 7/1. Any thoughts ?

[Godspot]

Since 1970 there were only five favourites that have won the Grand National. Strange enough the sp for all five was 7/1. Big fella thanks now is the favourite @ 7/1. Any thoughts ?

Oh! You thought it strange about 7/1 & wanted thoughts on that? Trust me to go off on a tangent & do a piece on the merit of their worths - save to say, that 7/1 now doesn't mean anything other than the bookies don't want any more money for that horse for the time being...

My worst National has to be Lord Gyllene's, 'I'm not touching that 7/1 favourite!' As he had been all year up until about 30 seconds before the off when he went for a walk in the market & all of a sudden I'm choking on my beer, 'WTF is he doing at 14/1?' For some reason, I knew then that he was the winner & that I had missed one. Bad day but

Fully respect his chances but does that extra year on his back, after being 6th last year, constitute a stone improvement? He’ll have to find a little more than that to finish in front of Mon Mome I reckon–

I could make a strong case to suggest Mon Mome has been gifted a fair chance of a repeat -

In 2005, Hedgehunter won by 14l’s, carrying 11-1 with a rating of 144 – the following year he lost by 6l’s under the welter burden of 11-12 off a rating of 156. [carrying 11lb more rated 12lb higher]

Last year, Mon Mome won by 12l’s [beating previous year’s winner, Comply Or Die, carrying 11lb more rated 15lb higher, did well?] carrying 11 0 with a rating of 148, this year he gets in on 11-7 rated 155 – so he’s already won with a higher rating & now he’s trying to follow up with a lower weight & rating than Hedgehunter who only lost by 6l’s - so here we have the highest rated winner for some time (I'll confirm this), carrying 7lb more & rated 7lb higher but

Hedgehunter was one of those obliging favs: He’d fallen in the race the year before but had just returned to winning form as a chaser prior to his win after being racing over hurdles to preserve his mark. He had been placed in the Hennessy (Newbury in November, class form) & Welsh National before that. Though I didn’t back him, he lacked a decent speed figure for me but thought he was a worthy favourite & the most probable winner.

Grittar, the 1982 winner, he was made favourite after running 6th in that year’s Gold Cup but he had also won the previous season’s Aintree Foxhunter Chase, he carried 11-5. Bit before my time & the Racing Post’s, had to get the books out for that.

Comply Or Die, he was a joint favourite, he’d also been placed in a Hennessy but had also ran a cracking speed figure at Newcastle after the National weights had come out in February which made him look glaringly, ‘well-in’ at the weights. I was out of racing this year but if I had seen his figures, I would have liked.

Earth Summit, may have been lucky that the ground came up soft/heavy as & when it did for him to oblige as favourite, he’d clocked a decent speed figure in similar conditions when he won the Welsh National en route – always remember as being one of the easiest Nationals to call.

Rough Quest, well! Bar the whopping girt speed figure that he had earned when coming 2nd in the Gold Cup just prior to, which made him easily the best h’capped horse in the race & maybe the fact that he too had been placed in a Hennessy – quite reminds me of your, Big Fella Thanks. In that, like BFT has unseated twice in his last 7 starts, Rough Quest had fallen but also, was one of those that didn’t want to be in front too soon. Even though massively well handicapped, still considered by some as a career best ride by jockey, Mick Fitzgerald.

In conclusion, I’d say BFT lacks the recent speed figure of Rough Quest & Comply Or Die & the big h’cap experience of Hedgehunter & Earth Summit besides… Besides the Racing Post suggesting he’s the one to take from the race last year for this & the fact that he’s gotten in under 11 stone – your 25/s would have made a great EW bet but & to be honest, I seem to have spent more time looking at previous winners than I have this year’s runners to suggest who really warrants favouritism…. I’ll be back!

[mick56]

hi bryn the horse does not no what price he is,and anyway for you he is not 7/1 but 25/1
i like to see anyone beat the market and you are sitting pretty there mate.

[barrelmaniac]

I think that if it was me I would trade off a little........ A free bet (or almost a free bet) on the national is a good thing, the national is a rather unique race in my opinion, there are so many things that can happen like free horses getting in the way etc.

I would trade off at least part of the bet, you are in such a good situation with the market moving like it has.


If it was a system bet I would not trade it off, but from what I can gather here its a fun bet that has worked out pretty well so far.