Dutch Div 2 Over 2.5 Goals

[MattR]

Going to start posting these up each week (most games usually on a Friday evening)

This league generally seems to see a scoring frenzy in most games but the odds naturally reflect that. However the idea here is to try to identify those that are still value based on the odds generated by the spreadsheet I use.

I have been doing these for the last 4 weeks, results to date

23/10 3/3
30/10 4/5
6/11 5/5
13/1 1/4

Total 13/17
Ave Odds 1.63
To £10 level stakes (inc 5% comm) +43.75

So a decent start, but a bad one last week including a 0-0

We will need to maintain a very good strike rate to keep in profit. Ideally need at least 2/3 to win as most wins will be around £6 profit from £10.

On the 23/10 the entire division was over 2.5 goals, with a 3,6,4,3,6,3,3,3,3 and an 8 !


Tonight's qualifiers: 6 in total tonight, the most it's thrown up so far.


Starting Bank £1000, Stakes £10 ( in future will be £10 minimum or 1% of any bank higher than 1000 should we get in profit!)


AGOVV v Telstar 1.58
Cambuur v Emmen 1.42 not sure I've ever seen an over 2.5 this low!
Eindhoven v Omniworld 1.54
GA Eagles v MVV 1.69
Haarlem v Dordecht 1.67
Volendam v Helmond 1.61

[mathare]

Good luck with that Matt - be nice to see if there are decent systems out there for the foreign leagues as that is one area I have yet to tap into

[MattR]

AGOVV v Telstar 1.58 2-0
Cambuur v Emmen 1.42 1-0
Eindhoven v Omniworld 1.54 2-0
GA Eagles v MVV 1.69 4-0
Haarlem v Dordecht 1.67 0-3
Volendam v Helmond 1.61 1-2


Results
3/6
Pr/Lo - 11.23 after comm
Bank 988.77

[Iron Chris]

Not a good start Matt, those first three all fitted a system where you back the home team to keep a clean sheet rather than going overs...:wink


Seriously, good luck with these, you and Mathare seem to be putting a lot of time and effort into the football and it is good of you to share your ideas after you have put the work in...

[MattR]

Thanks Chris.

Needed one more to be in profit so that was a shame. On a brighter note there were only four games in the league that went over so at least I got three of them

[MattR]

Friday 27th Nov

7 this evening!


Stake £10

Zwolle v Cambuur 1.64
Dordecht v GA Eagles 1.94
Emmen v Eindhoven 1.57
Top Oss v Excelsior 1.73
Helmond v Den Bosch 1.73
Roosendaal v Volendam 1.72
Telstar v Fortuna Sittard 1.77


Some decent prices tonight for this league. Either it's a reaction to a couple of lower scoring weeks or they've moved the goalposts (literally :D )

[MattR]

Good night tonight with 5 from 7 :)


Zwolle v Cambuur 1.64 1-0
Dordecht v GA Eagles 1.94 2-0
Emmen v Eindhoven 1.57 4-1
Top Oss v Excelsior 1.73 1-2
Helmond v Den Bosch 1.73 2-1
Roosendaal v Volendam 1.72 2-2
Telstar v Fortuna Sittard 1.77 3-1

Tonight's result
5/7
Profit +13.54

Results to date
8/13
Bank 1002.31

[MattR]

Some midweek fixtures in this league tonight

New Stake £10.02

Agovv v Den Bosch 1.63
Top Oss v Omniworld 1.67
Volendam v De Graafschap 1.65

[MattR]

Just 1 from 3 on Monday night for a loss. The winner was done and dusted after 34 minutes


Agovv v Den Bosch 1.63 2-0
Top Oss v Omniworld 1.67 2-2
Volendam v De Graafschap 1.65 0-1

Pr/Lo -12.62

To Date
9/16

Bank 989.69