mathare's gamblog

[MattR]

Mat, something just crossed my mind that would be interesting to see if it pans out as the under/over 2.5 does. What about 3.5 goals? Should be easy enough to get the 3.5 odds as they'll no doubt correlate to what they are on 2.5, so a quick check on betfair/daq should mean you can back check that with your data.

[mathare]

Mat, something just crossed my mind that would be interesting to see if it pans out as the under/over 2.5 does. What about 3.5 goals? Should be easy enough to get the 3.5 odds as they'll no doubt correlate to what they are on 2.5, so a quick check on betfair/daq should mean you can back check that with your data.

I can get current and future 3.5 goals odds but once again I don't have odds for past matches so can't back test. Also the 3.5 goals markets are limited to the exchanges so the competition for prices is less (and the markets are low liquidity) whereas the 2.5 goals markets are priced up my pretty much every bookmaker in the land so there is scope for competition on the prices

[crazybadger]

I have 3 football systems that I ran for around the last 1/2 to 1/3 of last season that were profitable. These were based on finding value in different markets (Half Time, Full Time and HT/FT). I havent started them this season as they use stats from the current season only so need a few games played first. I'm hoping the still stand up even with the more active season we're seeing.

Using the data from football-data.co.uk I also came up with a Half-Time lay system this season. I posted here in test mode for a bit but forget to update when I got too busy. It was simple - take the favourite from the FT market and lay them in the HT market as my previous stats said they only are leading at HT ~ 35%. Last update here it was +2.25pts but the following weekends were vey good with lots of favourites going down so it would have gone up a fair bit.

Finally with a little smart excel work (or write a little extraction program) you can find the odds for any betfair market in the past. Check out data.betfair.com. You can download spreadsheets of all markets which have every price that every runner was matched at and the 1st an last time these prices were matched. Very nice for back testing. :wink