mathare's Under/Over 2.5 Goals Systems

[mathare]

If you've been following my gamblog at all you'll know I have been analysing English football data looking for under/over 2.5 goals systems and have found a few systems of interest that I will be paper trading here on the forum. I cannot stress enough how important the words "paper trading" are here. I have done quite a bit of research and analysis into these systems but it is still risky to go live with any system right away so I will be monitoring the selections and results without putting down any real money just yet. And I don't suggest you follow these with real money either until such time as they are proven.

All bets are to 1pt stake at the specified odds which have been taken from Oddschecker

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 Goals
Doncaster v Barnsley @ 11/10 (Blue Sq, SkyBet)
Ipswich v Swansea @ 11/10 (general)
QPR v Preston @ 11/10 (Victor Chandler, Blue Sq, Paddy Power etc)

4a (30) - Over 2.5 Goals
Ipswich v Swansea @ 11/10 (general)

League One
1a (30) - Under 2.5 Goals
Southend v Bristol Rovers @ 4/5 (Sportingbet, SkyBet)
Yeovil v Carlise @ 4/5 (Bet365, SkyBet)

3a (50) - Under 2.5 Goals
Leeds v Norwich @ 9/10 (Bet365)
Walsall v Exeter @ 17/20 (Bet365)
Yeovil v Carlise @ 4/5 (Bet365, SkyBet)

League Two
1b (6) - Under 2.5 Goals
None

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 Goals
None

I will keep the usual set of stats (profit, SR, ROI) for each system and post regular updates to allow easy monitoring of the systems.

[mathare]

Not a great start with just one game going our way. I didn't realise Leeds v Norwich is not till Monday night as it was down as a Saturday game when I checked the coupon but I will update the stats after that game

[mathare]

A goal for Leeds in injury time last night took that match over 2.5 goals and it was looking so good for us too. Oh well.

Not a great start for these systems at all with just one winner. We have a chance to put things right tonight though with a full set of Championship matches to be played.

[mathare]

Tuesday 20th October

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 Goals
Doncaster v Peterborough @ 23/20 (Bet365)
QPR v Reading @ 21/20 (Bet365)

[mathare]

Two winners at greater than evens last night gets things back on track a bit more. Championship system 2a (10) is now in profit but we're still running at a loss overall. It's very early days yet though.

Stats are as shown in the attachment

[TheGoodGuy]

Well done on the Doncaster & QPR results, Mat.

I'm following this thread with interest, especially to see how many of your qualifiers match with my rather basic system.

My system also threw up the QPR match as being OVER.......but not the Doncaster match......my system predicted it to be so NOT an OVER game that I was tempted to back it as an UNDER. Luckily I didn't.

I am back to paper trialling my OVER/UNDER system until I can come up with something more consistent/reliable..........but I wish you well with your efforts & am watching closely!

[mathare]

Thanks for the kind words Ada. Good luck with the trial of your system - it'll be interesting to see how it works out for you. And if you need any help, or just someone to bounce ideas of, give me a shout

[mathare]

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 Goals
Crystal Palace v Nottm Forest @ 5/4 (Bet365)
Preston v Middlesbrough @ 19/20 (Bet365)
Derby v QPR @ 23/20 (Extrabet)

4a (30) - Over 2.5 Goals
Barnsley v Bristol City @ 5/4 (Bet365)
Derby v QPR @ 23/20 (Extrabet)

League One
1a (30) - Under 2.5 Goals
Millwall v Leeds @ 4/5 (Betfred, Skybet, Stan James)

3a (50) - Under 2.5 Goals
Bristol Rovers v Yeovil @ 17/20 (Sportingbet)
Millwall v Leeds @ 4/5 (Betfred, Skybet, Stan James)

League Two
1b (6) - Under 2.5 Goals
None

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 Goals
None

I don't understand the League One markets this week. The vast majority of the matches have been priced up identically. Has the Premiership and the big games there taking up too much of the odds compilers' time leaving little for the minor league markets? The League Two markets are priced more as I'd expect though so perhaps it's just the League One fixtures this week...

[mathare]

Weird. The systems I didn't expect to do so well (the Championship ones) are on fire while the lower league systems are struggling initially. Hmmm.

Stats as shown in the attachment (the easiest way to display tables properly)

[mathare]

Things start to step up a bit now with the League Two systems coming online properly. I hope no-one minds but I won't be posting up the bookies offering the best odds along with each bet as that is proving rather time-consuming. The odds are there somewhere though as I check each match with Oddschecker and note the best odds for over/under in each match. The vast majority of the prices are from Bet365 though so that's a good place to start if you want to bet on under/overs.

Remember though, I am still paper-trading these...

Friday 30th October
League One
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
Southend v Gillingham @ 17/20

Saturday 31st October
Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 Goals
Coventry v Reading @ 11/10
Doncaster v Blackpool @ 6/5
Preston v Crystal Palace @ evens

4a (30) - Over 2.5 Goals
None

League One
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
Millwall v Colchester @ 4/5

3a (50) - Under 2.5 goals
Leeds v Yeovil @ evens
Millwall v Colchester @ 4/5
MK Dons v Bristol Rovers @ 21/20

League Two
1b (6) - Under 2.5 goals
Bournemouth v Rochdale @ 17/20
Burton v Bury @ 19/20
Hereford v Darlington @ 4/5
Rotherham v Aldershot @ 17/20
Torquay v Northampton @ 11/10

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 goals
Bournemouth v Rochdale @ 17/20
Burton v Bury @ 19/20
Hereford v Darlington @ 4/5
Rotherham v Aldershot @ 17/20
Torquay v Northampton @ 11/10

[mathare]

Pretty much breakeven over all that lot with League One still continuing to disappoint :(

Stats as per attached table

[mathare]

It's the first round proper of the FA Cup this weekend which means there are no league games in the bottom two divisions which means we just have the Championship working for us with the under/overs.

I am using a slightly different format for the bets this week as it saves me a considerable amount of time to use a macro to output them, and this is the best format for the macro output. It should all be clear enough though...

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 goals
07/11/2009 Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough @ 6/5
07/11/2009 Watford v Preston @ 19/20
09/11/2009 Barnsley v Sheffield Utd @ 1/1

4a (30) - Over 2.5 goals
09/11/2009 Barnsley v Sheffield Utd @ 1/1

League 1
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
None

3a (50) - Under 2.5 goals
None

League 2
1b (6) - Under 2.5 goals
None

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 goals
None

[mathare]

Breakeven overall last weekend

[mathare]

It's an international break for the top leagues this weekend but the lower leagues are back in action after last week's FA Cup distraction.

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 goals
None

4a (30) - Over 2.5 goals
None

League 1
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
14/11/2009 Huddersfield v Wycombe @ 11/10
14/11/2009 Bristol Rovers v Carlisle @ 1/1
14/11/2009 Colchester v Exeter @ 1/1
14/11/2009 Yeovil v Southend @ 4/5

3a (50) - Under 2.5 goals
14/11/2009 Huddersfield v Wycombe @ 11/10
14/11/2009 Bristol Rovers v Carlisle @ 1/1
14/11/2009 Colchester v Exeter @ 1/1
14/11/2009 Walsall v Stockport @ 9/10
14/11/2009 Yeovil v Southend @ 4/5

League 2
1b (6) - Under 2.5 goals
14/11/2009 Bradford v Bournemouth @ 5/6
14/11/2009 Bury v Notts County @ 4/5
14/11/2009 Darlington v Burton @ 4/5
14/11/2009 Lincoln v Cheltenham @ 4/5
14/11/2009 Port Vale v Rotherham @ 17/20

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 goals
14/11/2009 Bradford v Bournemouth @ 5/6
14/11/2009 Bury v Notts County @ 4/5
14/11/2009 Darlington v Burton @ 4/5
14/11/2009 Lincoln v Cheltenham @ 4/5
14/11/2009 Port Vale v Rotherham @ 17/20

[mathare]

A real mixed bag this weekend with goals galore in League One, unfortunately.

Stats as shown in attached table

[mathare]

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 goals
21/11/2009 Barnsley v Cardiff @ 10/11
21/11/2009 Coventry v Crystal Palace @ 6/5
21/11/2009 Doncaster v QPR @ 21/20
23/11/2009 Preston v Newcastle @ 19/20

4a (30) - Over 2.5 goals
21/11/2009 Coventry v Crystal Palace @ 6/5
21/11/2009 Ipswich v Sheffield Weds @ 21/20

League 1
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
21/11/2009 Carlisle v Swindon @ 10/11
21/11/2009 Millwall v Wycombe @ 4/5
21/11/2009 Yeovil v Charlton @ 4/5

3a (50) - Under 2.5 goals
21/11/2009 Bristol Rovers v Gillingham @ 10/11
21/11/2009 Millwall v Wycombe @ 4/5
21/11/2009 Yeovil v Charlton @ 4/5

League 2
1b (6) - Under 2.5 goals
21/11/2009 Bradford v Accrington @ 1/1
21/11/2009 Burton v Hereford @ 17/20
21/11/2009 Lincoln v Grimsby @ 8/11
21/11/2009 Northampton v Crewe @ 11/10
21/11/2009 Torquay v Rotherham @ 4/5

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 goals
21/11/2009 Bradford v Accrington @ 1/1
21/11/2009 Burton v Hereford @ 17/20
21/11/2009 Lincoln v Grimsby @ 8/11
21/11/2009 Northampton v Crewe @ 11/10
21/11/2009 Torquay v Rotherham @ 4/5

[mathare]

Another slight loss this weekend (although there is still one match to be played) but at least we had some winners in League One for a change

Stats ahead of the Preston v Newcastle game as shown in the attachment

[mathare]

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 goals
23/11/2009 Preston v Newcastle @ 19/20

4a (30) - Over 2.5 goals
None

League 1
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
None

3a (50) - Under 2.5 goals
24/11/2009 Colchester v Stockport @ 10/11

League 2
1b (6) - Under 2.5 goals
24/11/2009 Darlington v Morecambe @ 4/5
24/11/2009 Port Vale v Torquay @ 3/4
24/11/2009 Rotherham v Lincoln @ 17/20

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 goals
24/11/2009 Darlington v Morecambe @ 4/5
24/11/2009 Port Vale v Torquay @ 3/4
24/11/2009 Rotherham v Lincoln @ 17/20

[mathare]

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 goals
28/11/2009 Crystal Palace v Watford @ 11/10
29/11/2009 Cardiff v Ipswich @ 20/19

4a (30) - Over 2.5 goals
None

League One
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
None

3a (50) - Under 2.5 goals
None

League Two
1b (6) - Under 2.5 goals
None

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 goals
None

[mathare]

The stats below include the midweek games as well as the two Championship bets from the weekend

[mathare]

A busy midweek session for the bottom divisions had thrown up quite a few bets...

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 goals
None

4a (30) - Over 2.5 goals
None

League One
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
01/12/2009 Brighton v Charlton @ 19/20
01/12/2009 Bristol Rovers v Exeter @ 11/10
01/12/2009 Carlisle v Hartlepool @ 19/20
01/12/2009 Huddersfield v Tranmere @ 23/20
01/12/2009 Millwall v MK Dons @ 10/11
01/12/2009 Southend v Norwich @ 10/11
01/12/2009 Yeovil v Walsall @ 4/5

3a (50) - Under 2.5 goals
01/12/2009 Brighton v Charlton @ 19/20
01/12/2009 Carlisle v Hartlepool @ 19/20
01/12/2009 Huddersfield v Tranmere @ 23/20
01/12/2009 Millwall v MK Dons @ 10/11
01/12/2009 Yeovil v Walsall @ 4/5

League Two
1b (6) - Under 2.5 goals
01/12/2009 Bradford v Rochdale @ 10/11
01/12/2009 Burton v Accrington @ 17/20
01/12/2009 Lincoln v Port Vale @ 2/3
01/12/2009 Torquay v Cheltenham @ 17/20

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 goals
01/12/2009 Bradford v Rochdale @ 10/11
01/12/2009 Burton v Accrington @ 17/20
01/12/2009 Lincoln v Port Vale @ 2/3
01/12/2009 Torquay v Cheltenham @ 17/20

[mathare]

A terrible night for these last night with far too many goals going in. The League One systems are having a complete shocker!

[mathare]

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 goals
05/12/2009 Crystal Palace v Doncaster @ 11/10
05/12/2009 Peterborough v Swansea @ 21/20

4a (30) - Over 2.5 goals
None

League One
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
05/12/2009 Colchester v Bristol Rovers @ 21/20
05/12/2009 Exeter v Brighton @ 21/20
05/12/2009 Gillingham v Carlisle @ 1/1
05/12/2009 Walsall v Southampton @ 43/40

3a (50) - Under 2.5 goals
05/12/2009 Colchester v Bristol Rovers @ 21/20
05/12/2009 Exeter v Brighton @ 21/20
05/12/2009 Walsall v Southampton @ 43/40

League Two
1b (6) - Under 2.5 goals
05/12/2009 Darlington v Bradford @ 1/1
05/12/2009 Port Vale v Morecambe @ 10/11
05/12/2009 Rotherham v Burton @ 4/5

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 goals
05/12/2009 Darlington v Bradford @ 1/1
05/12/2009 Port Vale v Morecambe @ 10/11
05/12/2009 Rotherham v Burton @ 4/5

[mathare]

Much more like it this weekend with just three incorrect and a gain of around 7pts

[mathare]

Just one Championship game tonight

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 goals
07/12/2009 Watford v QPR @ 10/11

4a (30) - Over 2.5 goals
None

[mathare]

Wednesday 9th December
I accidentally missed 9 Championship games last night (I don't quite know how) and when trying to sort my spreadsheet out to handle these missed games I noticed something odd with some of the numbers. Further investigation uncovered several errors in the code that calculated the bets for the Championship and League One systems. I have now fixed these errors - and double-checked the bets so I know they are now correct. However, this means the bets I have posted up for the Championship and League One paper trades may not be correct. I could go through and check the bets on this thread and compare them to the spreadsheet and correct them as I go but I'm not going to - I can't be bothered quite frankly. What I will do is post a new set of stats showing the correct figures for all systems - and the new figures are rubbish I'm afraid. The Championship systems that looked to be doing alright aren't do very well at all in actual fact. Not as bad as the League One systems (whose figures were pretty close before actually) but still not great. This correction has 'cost' me over 10pts but at least I can now be 100% confident that the systems are as I intended them to be (in terms of the bets selected if not the results).

[mathare]

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 goals
12/12/2009 Sheffield Utd v Crystal Palace @ 21/20
12/12/2009 Swansea v Nottm Forest @ 13/10
13/12/2009 Middlesbrough v Cardiff @ 1/1

4a (30) - Over 2.5 goals
12/12/2009 Swansea v Nottm Forest @ 13/10

League One
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
12/12/2009 Carlisle v Wycombe @ 10/11
12/12/2009 Huddersfield v Gillingham @ 6/5
12/12/2009 Leyton Orient v MK Dons @ 11/10
12/12/2009 Millwall v Walsall @ 17/20
12/12/2009 Yeovil v Norwich @ 19/20

3a (50) - Under 2.5 goals
12/12/2009 Bristol Rovers v Swindon @ 17/20
12/12/2009 Huddersfield v Gillingham @ 6/5
12/12/2009 Leyton Orient v MK Dons @ 11/10
12/12/2009 Millwall v Walsall @ 17/20

League Two
1b (6) - Under 2.5 goals
12/12/2009 Barnet v Crewe @ 1/1
12/12/2009 Bradford v Rotherham @ 17/20
12/12/2009 Burton v Aldershot @ 17/20
12/12/2009 Lincoln v Rochdale @ 11/13
12/12/2009 Shrewsbury v Grimsby @ 17/20
12/12/2009 Torquay v Darlington @ 13/15

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 goals
12/12/2009 Barnet v Crewe @ 1/1
12/12/2009 Bradford v Rotherham @ 17/20
12/12/2009 Burton v Aldershot @ 17/20
12/12/2009 Lincoln v Rochdale @ 11/13
12/12/2009 Shrewsbury v Grimsby @ 17/20
12/12/2009 Torquay v Darlington @ 13/15

[mathare]

An extremely poor weekend here losing nearly 20pts across all systems. The bottom two divisions saw a veritable goal fest while the Championship just didn't get the goals we needed in the games we picked. These things happen though. That said, I am surprised these systems are doing as poorly as they are...

[mathare]

Championship
2a (10) - Over 2.5 goals
19/12/2009 Plymouth v Coventry @ 23/20
19/12/2009 Nottm Forest v Preston @ 23/20

4a (30) - Over 2.5 goals
19/12/2009 Crystal Palace v Barnsley @ 6/5
19/12/2009 Nottm Forest v Preston @ 23/20

League One
1a (30) - Under 2.5 goals
19/12/2009 Tranmere v Bristol Rovers @ 21/20

3a (50) - Under 2.5 goals
19/12/2009 Leeds v Southampton @ 10/11
19/12/2009 Tranmere v Bristol Rovers @ 21/20
19/12/2009 Walsall v Leyton Orient @ 19/20

League Two
1b (6) - Under 2.5 goals
19/12/2009 Darlington v Northampton @ 19/20 - abd
19/12/2009 Port Vale v Chesterfield @ 10/11 - abd
19/12/2009 Rotherham v Dag & Red @ 19/20 - abd
21/12/2009 Bournemouth v Notts County @ 10/11 - abd

1b (6) Filt - Under 2.5 goals
19/12/2009 Darlington v Northampton @ 19/20 - abd
19/12/2009 Port Vale v Chesterfield @ 10/11 - abd
19/12/2009 Rotherham v Dag & Red @ 19/20 - abd
21/12/2009 Bournemouth v Notts County @ 10/11 - abd

[mathare]

League Two was abandoned but finally the League One systems kick into action and we secured a small profit this weekend.