This is an idea for a football system that has come out of the work I have done so far in researching possible football systems as documented (to some degree at least) in my gamblog. It is a ratings based system that uses the rating of a team to calculate their chance of winning their next match, from this fair odds are computed and compared to the actual odds on offer. If the difference between the two sets of odds is in the right range then we place the bet (1pt level stakes).

I have tested this system over 4 seasons (05/06 to 08/09) and for that period a profit of 119.54pts was attained from 1514 bets for a ROI of 7.90%. I have also applied this test to the start of the 09/10 season but with mixed results so far (-14.59pts from 125 bets, ROI of -11.67%), mainly because the away bets seem to be underperforming.

I honestly don't know how this one will pan out so this is very much a paper trade and I wouldn't follow this one with any money at this stage. It may lead to nothing and could be scrapped at the end of the season but at least I am trying new things eh?