Sorry KC, my mind must be in turmoil at present, just realised I wrote previously I get my selections from the Sporting Life website but this of course should have read "Racing Post" online, as per original rules!
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Sorry KC, my mind must be in turmoil at present, just realised I wrote previously I get my selections from the Sporting Life website but this of course should have read "Racing Post" online, as per original rules!
Wife's granddad died yesterday ... and as the UKBA has he passport, she can't leave the UK
I double checked the emails, and they all went
The good news Mark, it that inadvertently you found that the old rules still work on one track, so you may want to continue with that one as is, and use the new rules for the 3 mentioned tracks. Just keep an extra eye on how the old rule track performs.
Forecast betting works on prices, the horse names are irrelevant. If you have 3 X Joint Favs and 3 X Joint 2nd-Favs, then you have 6 horses in the first 2 of the betting market.
I can't remember why the rule change took place
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Keith Driscoll - Administrator
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Sorry to hear the bad news Keith, my deepest condolences & hope the passport issue gets sorted asap!
Sorry to hear about your wife's grandad Keith, my sympathies. Don't get me started on the UKBA, they are beneath contempt! I've been trying to get my wife a 2 year spouse visa for over 8 months now and it's a tortuous/horrific experience, but I digress.
Well there is much food for thought on the AW fillies and it looks like many hours of contemplation/research are in store. Hindsight is a great thing but if I knew at the outset what a huge divergence there was in the performance of each track I would have set up a separate bank for each track. I wouldn't like to think how large my bank would be now, Dundalk alone would be massive and for the poor performing tracks I would have lost minimal amounts. Did you consider doing this?
Also, if I can find the time it would be good to consider whether Kempton could be backing system???
I run it all as one system, but due to the number of runners you could run them separate.
Kempton shows a negative ROI% for Win and Lay.
The change in days was only a minor tweak, here are the results if the rule was >6 since 2011
Last 1.5 Year Results
Dundalk +64
Kempton -72
Laytown -2
Lingfield +47
Meydan +3
Southwell +11
Wolves -79
Compared with the new:
Last 1.5 Year Results
Dundalk +49
Kempton -55
Laytown -3
Lingfield +74
Meydan +3
Southwell +17
Wolves -57
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Keith Driscoll - Administrator
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So what those figures show, if you wish, old rule for Dundalk, new for the other 2 ...... The reason why the old rule still works well at Dundalk is because they tend to run horses quicker in Ireland.
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Keith Driscoll - Administrator
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For those who like a little more risk, the longest losing run in 10 years has been 3, so it is possible to use a recovery plan. However, you would need to bet around 0.5% of the bank.
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Keith Driscoll - Administrator
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I'm talking to myself a lot today
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Keith Driscoll - Administrator
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Could be your first 6 month's when I was not doing it must have been good or because I don't use RP as indicated.
I need to do them the night before as I work shifts and I need to keep the costs down until I see profit hence why I now use ATR, it would be interesting to see others who use SL or ATR comment on there strike rate.
Thanks Keith, all very useful and helpful. As I said before much food for thought and many hours pondering what to do now!
Just to be sure, your new rule states >10 days since last run, > usually means "more than" so you are saying must have run 11 or more days ago, is that correct? I'm asking because the old rule was "must have run 6 or more days ago" but in one of your posts today you said the old rule was >6, meaning 7 or more days, was this a typo?
I think I will stick with Dundalk, Wolves, Lingfield, Jebel Ali (my 4 profitable tracks) and one of my losing tracks, Southwell, to see if the new days since last ran rule pulls it round. I have to keep Wolves as it's my 2nd best profit maker, why we have such a glaring difference in our P/L figures for this track is a mystery!
I am also considering having separate banks for each track so I maximise returns on the profit makers (especially Dundalk) and minimise losses on the ones that turn into losers.....we'll see.
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Keith Driscoll - Administrator
Managing Director, Win2Win Limited
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Keith Driscoll - Administrator
Managing Director, Win2Win Limited
Filipino UK Filipino Forum | Win2Win Racing - Free Tips
Thanks for the reply Keith regarding Flat Layem.
I never received the email regarding the update but I've downloaded it now so I'm good to go.
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